This poll is not right simply because McSally isn’t winning anywhere. I don’t doubt Trump is up. Probably not as high with the groups they say.
I think Trump by 5 in Az is about right, McSally loses by 2-4. She truly is a terrible candidate.
As for Biteme getting an edge in non-2016 voters, garbage. Everything we are seeing from Trafalgar and Baris says the opposite, unless this is all 18 year olds. Both Trafalgar and Baris saying that the “shy Trump” voter is now even in more numbers than in 2016 and both pollsters have people admit in the non-polling part they are Trump voters but don’t want to say so officially.
Finally last week Baris had the economy move in front of health as the #1 concern.
7-9 points worse than Trump is a huge differential. I see no reason to believe it would be that bad. Latest MSM poll has Trump and Biden tied and McSally down 4. If Trump wins by 5 I think she wins.