China moving military ships near Taiwanese coast may spark US confrontation

NY Post ^ | 05/26/2020 | Mark Moore

[rbmillerjr]

All of this makes me think Xi may be under pressure from CCP and elites. It seems an almost desperate attempt of defensiveness.

Covid
Trade
Hong Kong
India

[Zhang Fei]

[All of this makes me think Xi may be under pressure from CCP and elites. It seems an almost desperate attempt of defensiveness.]

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It’s offensive, not defensive. It’s human nature to want more than you have. It’s why man’s long-ago ancestors were hairless apes who wore animal skins, mastered fire, crossed rivers and seas and hunted big game while their cousins - chimps, gorillas and orangutans - were content with staying where they were and dining on berries and roots.

The virus thing was probably an accident. But the outside hostility is the perfect opportunity for him to rally support for what he wanted to do anyway. It’s actually pretty standard practice to push your adversaries without quite crossing over into armed hostilities until they push back, so you can say the other guy started it. For instance, the winning of the West required relentless incursions into Indian territory until they began raiding colonial settlements. China’s expansion from a small kingdom on the banks of the Yellow River involved similar tactics. I’d say it was pretty much a universal tactic for any country of any size beyond a small village encompassing a few dozen people.

[Jim Noble]

either in the East/South China sea or off the coast of Taiwan

Long way from home, bro.

[rbmillerjr]

Sometimes war comes to you...as it did with WWII in Czech, Poland, France, UK etc.

and as it did at Pearl Harbor.

We need to attain Peach through Strength in the Pacific or war will come to us as well.

Chinese love to pick on the weak.

Paracell islands, Spratly’s, Mischief Reef, Subi Reef.
It’s coming, whether you like it or not.

[Tallguy]

*** The 2 Carriers are early in the operations learning cycle and useless, except to be big fat targets. ***

The Liaonig (ex-Varyag) is only ever going to be a “training carrier” so that the PLAN can qualify as many naval aviators as possible. The Shandong only just cleared the ship ways. I think she had a shakedown cruise but I really doubt that she even has an air group embarked. Maybe a few Helo’s, but that would be it.

[Tallguy]

Right now the Philippines can’t seem to pick a side. Taiwan falling to the PLA will focus their minds. Japan already ‘gets it’. Vietnam as well. Trump can’t say it, but he might be willing to let Taiwan fall as a down-payment on creating a strong military alliance in the area. The reason he can’t say it is that it would have negative impact on every other alliance or defensive treaty.

[servantboy777]

>>Long way from home, bro.<<

Yep, but if there ever were war with China, it would likely not only be thousands of miles away. It could touch our shores.

Remember the launch of a missile off the coast of California a few years back? It was played off as a contrail from a jetliner....but some military analyst came to the conclusion it was a warning shot off the bow of America by a Chinese submarine.

This is not the 60’s, 70’s, 80’s.

[servantboy777]

Possible missile launch off coast of California by a Chinese Sub.
https://rightwingnews.com/military/wnd-report-missile-launch-off-california-likely-from-chinese-sub/

[Nifster]

CCP released a new virus on the world. They are culling their own population. They are shutting down Hong Kong. They are cutting off Taiwan

Your faith they won’t fire first is misguided

[Lazamataz]

Excellent perspective. Thanks.

[Lazamataz]

Think of it this way - do you acquire a pussy mobile to chase women? Or do you chase women in order to have an excuse to purchase a pussy mobile?

Dahell is a pussy mobile?

[Zhang Fei]

[Dahell is a pussy mobile? ]

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That would be the flashy car you buy to impress the ladies.

[ifinnegan]

You’re right it’s power struggle but the only people going to be attacked are ChiCom subjects or kids in Hong Kong.

[Zhang Fei]

[You’re right it’s power struggle but the only people going to be attacked are ChiCom subjects or kids in Hong Kong.]

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IMHO, by the time Xi’s reign is over, he will have made a play for Taiwan. And maybe more. What he’s doing over Hong Kong suggests he’s a man in a hurry. There is no pressing need to do anything about Hong Kong. In fact, it serves the same function that it did when China had a closed economy - it’s an economic valve for China to do business with the West much the way the West does business with other members of the club. By destroying Hong Kong’s protected status, and therefore the economic privileges HK retains with the West, he has signaled that he believes China doesn’t need this outlet.

Is China in a position to complete the task Xi has set out for it? It’s certainly possible. When Japan carried out the Pearl Harbor attacks, its economy (including its overseas possessions) was 1/5 the size of the US economy. China’s economy is half the size of the American economy today.

Note that Chinese conquerors have generally been content with incremental gains, whereas Japan wanted the whole enchilada, with troops positioned a hop and a skip away from Australia. So the entire Chinese military will be focused on its particular region of interest - the airspace and waters around Taiwan, which will make it much more challenging just in terms of the number of Chinese air and naval units that any country coming to Taiwan’s aid will have to face. I also expect him to attempt to cement China’s hold on the South China Sea by seizing foreign vessels passing through the region. We’ll see.

[ifinnegan]

You seem to have already forgotten your own comment, Xi can be “turfed at any moment.”

That’s the pressing need, to not be turfed.

Its internecine.

It’s unstable because there is no system and no leadership.

[Zhang Fei]

[You seem to have already forgotten your own comment, Xi can be “turfed at any moment.”

That’s the pressing need, to not be turfed.

Its internecine.

It’s unstable because there is no system and no leadership.]

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All dictators have similar worries. People in that line of work look at it as the cost of doing business. Doesn’t prevent them from rolling the dice. What’s all that power for, if not to reach for greatness? Xi could have contented himself with being a mid-level bureaucrat, instead of vying for the top spot. No one would have noticed him and he could have coasted all the way through to retirement. Instead, he propelled himself into the arena, and conducted purges unprecedented since the Mao era. That’s not an accident. He cleaned house domestically and ramped up military procurement to get ready for one big push abroad. Xi is a man in a hurry, and he’s not getting any younger.

[Zhang Fei]

[Dahell is a pussy mobile? ]

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I had a senior moment. It’s pussy magnet, not pussy mobile.