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Trump will lose in a landslide because of the economy, new election model predicts
CNN ^ | May 20, 2020 | Matt Egan

Posted on 05/20/2020 12:26:20 PM PDT by MinorityRepublican

The economy has gone from President Donald Trump's greatest political asset to perhaps his biggest weakness.

Unemployment is spiking at an unprecedented rate. Consumer spending is vanishing. And GDP is collapsing. History shows that dreadful economic trends like these spell doom for sitting presidents seeking reelection.

The coronavirus recession will cause Trump to suffer a "historic defeat" in November, a national election model released Wednesday by Oxford Economics predicted.

The model, which uses unemployment, disposable income and inflation to forecast election results, predicts that Trump will lose in a landslide, capturing just 35% of the popular vote. That's a sharp reversal from the model's pre-crisis prediction that Trump would win about 55% of the vote. And it would be the worst performance for an incumbent in a century.

(Excerpt) Read more at cnn.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2020election; ballotharvesting; clintonnonnews; clowncar; cnn; cnnfakenews; considerthesource; coronavirus; covid19; delaware; dnctalkingpoint; dnctalkingpoints; election2020; electionfraud; fakemodels; fakenews; fakepolls; joebiden; joeclowncarbiden; kungflu; mattegan; mediawingofthednc; moogoogaipandemic; oxfordeconomics; partisanmediashills; presstitutes; smearmachine; tds; trump2020; votefrauddatabase; voteharvesting; wuhanvirus
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To: MinorityRepublican

Unemployment on purpose...not because of incompetence. Everyone knows it’s not real.


201 posted on 05/20/2020 3:55:25 PM PDT by DouglasKC
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To: JayGalt

PENN MI WI and MI are why Trump might lose. At least according to Stossel’s site.


202 posted on 05/20/2020 3:57:14 PM PDT by Sam Gamgee
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To: FlipWilson

Could Trump win swing states on the second amendment argument? Biden seems horrible on gun rights.


203 posted on 05/20/2020 3:59:56 PM PDT by Sam Gamgee
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To: MinorityRepublican

Yes under traditional models he should get crushed. Bad economy = no re election.

However this is anything but a typical situation so applying that model to this blindly is naive.


204 posted on 05/20/2020 4:02:36 PM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: JayGalt

Define “Open”. Open, BUT only 50% capacity allowed, masks required, limited hours, etc.?


205 posted on 05/20/2020 4:10:03 PM PDT by CodeToad (Arm Up! They Have!)
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To: italianquaker

“That is a fart in the wind”

You’re new to politics, huh?

The left will use the media to blame Trump as soon as they need to. Once this becomes an election issue, that video clip of Trump making that statement will appear in political commercials.


206 posted on 05/20/2020 4:11:25 PM PDT by CodeToad (Arm Up! They Have!)
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To: FormerFRLurker

“This is classic horse vs. water problem. “

From what I have seen of restaurants and bar opening against orders has resulted in packed houses.


207 posted on 05/20/2020 4:12:13 PM PDT by CodeToad (Arm Up! They Have!)
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To: JayGalt
"No one said we don’t have a difficult path"

Why is it difficult? It doesn't need to be. It never has been in our nation's history when dealing with other diseases.

(stolen from FReeper knarf)

208 posted on 05/20/2020 4:14:16 PM PDT by CodeToad (Arm Up! They Have!)
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To: DoodleDawg

Your intellectual dishonesty is on display. Again


209 posted on 05/20/2020 4:18:24 PM PDT by Calif Conservative (Ronald Reagan fan forever)
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To: Calif Conservative
Your intellectual dishonesty is on display. Again

And it's you. Again. You really need a life.

210 posted on 05/20/2020 4:21:39 PM PDT by DoodleDawg
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To: CodeToad

You need to read up on polio outbreaks. Swimming pools, camps, playgrounds, beaches and movie theaters were closed. Polio affected mostly young people and polio season was the summer, so schools were closed and work places weren’t, but people took the disease very seriously indeed.


211 posted on 05/20/2020 4:24:49 PM PDT by x
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To: reformedliberal

The fraud will not occur at the polls.

It is focused on absentee ballots, early voting, same day registration, mail in ballots, dual location voting, substitute voting (dead people, sick people,) ballot harvesting, etc.

Most fraudulent ballots are created before Election Day.


212 posted on 05/20/2020 4:39:27 PM PDT by oldbill
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To: bert

That’s true, she did. However she won the popular vote in California by a ton. That’s where she got her margin. First
point, voter fraud in the LA counties. Second point, here is a pointed lesson for the Electoral College. So now, we must destroy the EC.


213 posted on 05/20/2020 4:48:49 PM PDT by vortec94
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To: MinorityRepublican

It’s better than the old election model!!!


214 posted on 05/20/2020 4:58:59 PM PDT by rlmorel (The Coronavirus itself will not burn down humanity. But we may burn ourselves down to be rid of it.)
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To: MinorityRepublican

The stock market wasn’t up 369 points on the Dow today, and the NASDAQ 4.7% below its all-time high because investors expect the American public to elect a 77 year-old socialist perv with Alzheimer’s disease in a landslide.


215 posted on 05/20/2020 5:04:14 PM PDT by Sooth2222 ("The natives are growing restless")
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To: MinorityRepublican

More like a CNN wet dream


216 posted on 05/20/2020 5:22:36 PM PDT by The Great RJ ("Socialists are happy until they run out of other people's money." Margaret Thatcher)
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To: CodeToad

Nah President Trump will be fine
Just a fart in the wind


217 posted on 05/20/2020 5:29:24 PM PDT by italianquaker
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To: CodeToad

I sense you like blanket statements.
If you don’t think it will be difficult to rebuild our economy after it has been cut off in midstream for 2-3 months I think your reality resting is flawed.


218 posted on 05/20/2020 6:17:40 PM PDT by JayGalt (You can't teach a donkey how to tap dance. Nemo me impune lacessit!)
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To: Sam Gamgee

We will have to see, I worry the most above voter fraud.


219 posted on 05/20/2020 6:22:27 PM PDT by JayGalt (You can't teach a donkey how to tap dance. Nemo me impune lacessit!)
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To: MinorityRepublican

Must be the Hillary model.


220 posted on 05/20/2020 6:23:26 PM PDT by Cvengr ( Adversity in life & death is inevitable; Stress is optional through faith in Christ.)
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