Moving Out and Not Coming Back

“Why is it that the places Covid-19 show up the most are in Democrat controlled areas?”

I won’t say it.

“Giuliani” has been all over [NYC] WABC radio for the last few weeks.

Red States don’t seed their nursing homes with COVID patients. This herd thinning process is known as the Cuomo Doctrine.

Bump

I just saw him on FOX the other night.

It was either Laura or Hannity.

He looks good, and was smiling a lot.

What everyone needs to be looking forward to is MOVING UP and NOT COMING BACK. For believers in Christ it will be a move up in less than a nano second.

Here is today's tracking of size- and time-adjusted COVID-19 deaths at the state level

. For those new to the data, I standardize each municipality's cumulative COVID-19 fatality count per GitHub by its population, then multiply the resulting quotient by the US' population of 329MM to put everyone on a common/US scale. I then index each municipality's time-series to Day 1, where their size-adjusted fatality count is right before it breaches 1,000 people. This corrects for what I call the "Golf Problem" where broadcasts of the Masters etc have to show not only each golfer's score, but which hole they're at. I also list the Day 1 date and the population for reference. I've posted the history back to Day 1 on my About page.

Note for the US as nation, that Day 1 is March 25, which means Day 31 is April 24 for that row of data. You can do the math for the other municipalities to find out what Day XX means for them in calendar times; as a general rule, the last actual data point is the freshest date, but on a Golf timeline it gives each municipality's score as of the "31st hole." The sort order is Day 31 where Day 31 data exist, and then Day 25 for all other municipalities that haven't played their 31st hole.

The international ranking of the US hasn't changed in a long time. Sweden and the Netherland's "hands off" approach hasn't yielded fewer fatalities but they haven't wrecked their economy. We'll see what happens throug the end of the year. Stateside, for Day 31 the municipalities with higher adjusted fatalities than the US as a whole remain New York (Blue), New Jersey (Blue), Connecticut (Blue), Massachusetts (Blue), Michigan (Red), Louisiana (Red) and District of Columbia (Blue), respectively.

While I don't track this data at the city/county level, I built a logistic regression to see if Red/Blue states' (defined by the 2016 Presidential election results) ranking and logged fatality count on Day 25 was different. It depends: the regression with the ranking had an overall p-value of 0.095 but on the logged adjusted fatality count the p-value was a stronger 0.043.

Country	Date of Day 1=day priot to hitting 1,000+ population-adjusted deaths	Population	Day 25	Day 26	Day 27	Day 28	Day 29	Day 30	Day 31	Day 32	Day 33
San Marino	3/3/20	33,574	206,132	215,948	215,948	245,396	255,211	255,211	294,475	294,475	314,106
Andorra	3/21/20	77,543	131,749	140,249	140,249	148,749	148,749	152,999	157,249	157,249	157,249
Belgium	3/19/20	11,524,454	102,947	111,611	118,875	126,967	138,892	147,643	155,935	162,513	166,659
Spain	3/13/20	47,100,396	93,346	98,271	103,498	108,081	112,517	116,190	120,410	124,237	126,336
West Bank and Gaza	3/25/20	11,700	56,334	84,502	84,502	112,669	112,669	112,669	112,669	-	-
France	3/18/20	67,076,000	68,052	70,809	73,629	77,373	84,448	88,147	91,891	95,045	97,006
Italy	3/5/20	60,243,406	58,966	63,408	67,986	71,963	76,121	80,311	84,036	86,908	90,388
United Kingdom	3/20/20	66,435,550	56,287	60,166	63,961	68,252	72,459	76,878	79,840	82,097	86,204
Ireland	3/25/20	4,921,500	38,236	40,847	46,003	48,883	51,494	53,168	67,900	-	-
Netherlands	3/17/20	17,451,031	47,589	50,101	51,876	53,500	55,804	59,392	62,829	65,549	68,230
Sweden	3/23/20	10,333,456	42,512	44,649	48,189	49,114	50,390	56,290	61,775	64,454	68,632
United States	3/25/20	329,556,365	38,664	40,661	42,094	44,444	46,622	49,954	51,949	-	-
Switzerland	3/16/20	8,586,550	36,385	38,457	39,762	42,449	43,677	45,059	47,553	49,165	50,931
Luxembourg	3/17/20	613,894	28,989	33,283	35,431	37,041	35,968	37,041	37,041	38,652	38,652
Macedonia	3/24/20	679,600	23,761	23,761	24,731	26,186	26,671	27,156	27,156	27,641	-
Portugal	3/23/20	10,276,617	20,171	21,069	22,031	22,897	23,570	24,436	25,174	26,296	27,387
Germany	3/25/20	83,149,300	17,673	18,176	19,270	19,948	20,923	22,096	22,829	-	-
Denmark	3/22/20	5,822,763	17,489	18,168	19,017	19,583	20,092	20,602	20,941	21,734	22,300
Austria	3/23/20	8,902,600	15,177	15,955	16,399	16,732	17,398	18,176	18,879	19,323	19,620
Iran	3/9/20	83,331,064	12,497	13,027	13,652	14,249	14,787	15,313	15,791	16,254	16,737
Iceland	3/23/20	364,260	7,238	8,143	8,143	8,143	9,047	9,047	9,047	9,047	9,047
Cyprus	3/23/20	875,900	4,515	4,515	4,515	4,515	4,515	4,515	4,891	4,891	5,267

Municipality	Date of Day 1 = day prior to breaching size-adj 1,000 COVID19 fatalities	Population (MM)	Day 25	Day 26	Day 27	Day 28	Day 29	Day 30	Day 31	Day 32	Day 33	Day 34
New York	3/20/20	19,795,791	167,410	180,362	192,881	202,970	213,458	222,448	230,888	238,846	246,854	254,745
New Jersey	3/23/20	8,958,013	129,424	141,270	149,731	154,587	161,025	174,858	186,263	197,483	206,644	-
Connecticut	3/23/20	3,590,886	89,114	95,080	99,668	103,431	122,154	130,597	141,702	150,421	161,892	-
Massachusetts	3/25/20	6,794,422	75,666	82,748	87,744	95,116	105,836	114,469	123,976	-	-	-
Michigan	3/24/20	9,922,576	73,932	76,622	79,345	81,903	89,608	93,394	98,874	102,428	-	-
Louisiana	3/20/20	4,670,724	62,373	71,475	77,825	81,565	85,587	89,397	91,443	93,701	99,134	103,932
District of Columbia	3/24/20	672,228	42,161	44,612	47,064	51,476	54,907	62,261	68,144	75,007	-	-
United States	3/25/20	329,556,365	38,664	40,661	42,094	44,444	46,622	49,954	51,949	-	-	-
Colorado	3/24/20	5,456,574	23,494	24,702	25,427	27,058	29,232	31,768	33,641	40,586	-	-
Georgia	3/23/20	10,214,860	19,712	21,325	21,616	22,003	24,745	26,133	27,004	28,101	28,681	-
Nevada	3/24/20	2,890,845	17,214	17,670	18,012	18,582	18,582	21,318	22,230	23,142	-	-
Washington	3/8/20	7,170,351	11,444	12,501	13,467	14,616	15,811	17,603	18,798	19,763	20,958	22,199
Vermont	3/18/20	626,042	13,160	14,213	14,740	15,266	15,792	18,424	18,424	19,477	19,477	20,004
Rhode Island	3/29/20	1,056,298	56,471	58,966	63,022	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Pennsylvania	3/28/20	12,802,503	41,701	44,275	44,095	45,974	-	-	-	-	-	-
Maryland	3/31/20	6,006,401	39,669	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Illinois	3/27/20	12,859,995	34,826	37,902	40,413	43,463	46,230	-	-	-	-	-
Indiana	3/26/20	6,619,680	27,979	28,327	31,364	32,907	35,148	36,890	-	-	-	-
Delaware	3/27/20	945,934	25,084	28,568	31,007	32,052	34,839	-	-	-	-	-
Mississippi	3/27/20	2,992,333	18,613	20,154	21,256	22,137	23,018	-	-	-	-	-
Ohio	3/29/20	11,614,373	17,309	18,614	19,579	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Florida	3/29/20	20,271,272	15,054	16,030	16,989	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Kentucky	3/30/20	4,425,092	14,448	15,118	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Alabama	3/31/20	4,858,979	14,175	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Wisconsin	3/29/20	5,771,337	14,104	14,675	14,961	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Virginia	3/29/20	8,382,993	13,720	14,742	16,236	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Minnesota	3/31/20	5,489,594	13,267	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Kansas	3/29/20	2,911,641	12,564	12,677	13,243	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Arizona	3/30/20	6,828,065	12,404	12,935	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Oklahoma	3/27/20	3,911,338	12,049	13,818	14,239	15,082	15,840	-	-	-	-	-
Maine	3/30/20	1,329,328	10,908	11,652	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
California	3/27/20	39,144,818	10,296	11,079	11,997	13,075	13,630	-	-	-	-	-
Idaho	3/28/20	1,654,930	10,156	10,753	10,753	10,753	-	-	-	-	-	-
Tennessee	3/31/20	6,600,299	8,987	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
South Carolina	3/27/20	4,896,146	8,346	9,087	9,423	10,096	10,568	-	-	-	-	-
Oregon	3/27/20	4,028,977	6,135	6,380	6,380	6,789	7,035	-	-	-	-	-
North Dakota	3/29/20	756,927	6,095	6,531	6,531	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Arkansas	3/31/20	2,978,204	5,201	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Montana	3/29/20	1,032,949	4,467	4,467	4,467	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

It’s odd he attributes geography to the political differences in our country. It’s the underlying moral values. Is God in control or not? Is Jesus God or not? If these are yes, then you behave differently.

Well said! Thank you!

Don’t come to Arizona unless you can prove you vote republican. Most of those looking berals drag their filth habits with them.

We in the United States never suffered another terror attack on the scale of 9/11

We did and this one was intentional. You don't close down your infected province from the rest of China while sending the infected all over the world. No warning? Less than a day travel? The Who assisting in the spread of the virus? Come on.

This was a worldwide attack with a weapon of mass destruction. The US is now at 18+ 9/11 attacks. It is not going away. There will be many more dead and suffering.

Worse are the enemies within whitewashing the plague for their CCP masters. Some don't even know it.

Toffler’s Mega-Trends: Big City people move to the suburbs and small town people move to the big city.

You forgot to add, Bless your pea picking,Heart!”

A lot of the city folk won’t be able to survive out here. The conveniences they rely on aren’t here. They will have to learn how to deal with problems they are ordinarily used to just picking up a phone to handle. I’ve lived in the country off and on before I moved out here full time in 1990. The new sheriff (who didn’t know me) came out to pay me a visit shortly after we moved in. His welcome conversation included this:

Sheriff: “Do you own any guns?”
I replied: “Sure, I’ve been shooting all my life.”
Sheriff: “Good. We don’t have 911 in this county yet, and we just can’t protect you out here.”

I have a feeling this is going to be a spoiler for many city clickers.

Send Snake Plissken in - only this time to keep them corralled...