Posted on 04/15/2020 1:19:15 PM PDT by Hojczyk
A prominent Israeli mathematician, analyst and former general claims simple statistical analysis demonstrates that the spread of COVID-19 peaks after about 40 days and declines to almost zero after 70 days — no matter where it strikes, and no matter what measures governments impose to try to thwart it.
Prof Isaac Ben-Israel, head of the Security Studies program in Tel Aviv University and the chairman of the National Council for Research and Development, told Israel’s Channel 12 (Hebrew) Monday night that research he conducted with a fellow professor, analyzing the growth and decline of new cases in countries around the world, showed repeatedly that “there’s a set pattern” and “the numbers speak for themselves.”
While he said he supports social distancing, the widespread shuttering of economies worldwide constitutes a demonstrable error in light of those statistics. In Israel’s case, he noted, about 140 people normally die every day. To have shuttered much of the economy because of a virus that is killing one or two a day is a radical error that is unnecessarily costing Israel 20% of its GDP, he charged.
But Ben-Israel said the figures — notably from countries, such as Singapore, Taiwan, and Sweden, which did not take such radical measures to shutter their economies — proved his point. (He also posted a Hebrew paper to this effect on Facebook, with graphs showing the trajectories.)
Because a new source has been introduced. Multiple societal injection points with super spreaders.
Exactly - epidemiologists learn from textbooks with clean data...they can’t handle or understand the messy data that we have with CV. I would trust the math whiz over the epidemiologist.
Europe and America based its virus response on the infection and death rates in Italy. The problem is that Italy is a perfect storm for Covid-19. They have a very high population density, a very large percentage of seniors, a high percentage multi generational households and a healthcare system that was hampered by the last flu outbreak.
So what are we doing really, hunkered down at home, hiding from a virus that may hit us year after year and isn’t fatal to the overwhelming majority of people?
My kid brother was trying to explain something about the pandemic to my sister a few weeks ago. After a few minutes, my sister, who has a masters in mathematics, said, "What part of this math do you think I don't understand?". I don't think she liked being talked down to.
It's kinda like sex, you can go strong for 60 years {more or less} then it kinda 'plays itself out'.
I'd show you the 'mechanism' but this is a family friendly blog.
the only piece I can find right now mentioning Hong Kong as the potential source of the so-called “Aussie flu”, which led to no travel bans, no lockdowns, etc, Fauci singing the same old vaccine song:
2 Feb 2018: CNN: ‘Australian flu’: It’s not from Australia
by Susan Scutti
Currently, flu is widespread across much of the world, including most of Europe, Asia and North America. In particular, the United States is having what Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, calls a “bad year” of flu.
Fauci said the most common viruses circulating this season are two A group viruses, H3N2 and H1N1, and some B viruses.
H3N2 is the virus making most people sick, he said; it was also the dominant strain in the Australian season and the reason why many people refer to “Australian flu.” Though the strain did not originate in Australia — ***one study suggests that it emerged in or near Hong Kong — it quickly became dominant during the Australian flu season of 2017 and has gone on to dominate the world’s infections.
“When H3N2 dominates, it generally is a bad actor from the beginning and usually foreshadows a bad year,” Fauci said. “Superimpose upon that the fact that it is likely that the vaccine is not going to be particularly effective this year.”...
Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota: “Right now, most of our generic life-saving drugs come from China,” he said. These just-in-time delivery drugs are not stockpiled, he added. If a flu pandemic happened in China, Osterholm speculated, “we’re screwed in this country. Because now people will be dying from medical conditions that have nothing to do with flu. But it’s influenza that prevented that drug from being manufactured and shipped to the US.”...
The Australian Department of Health assessed vaccine effectiveness and found that the 2017 flu shot provided “low” protection (33%) against H3N2 while providing “moderate” protection against the other circulating viruses (50% or more)...
Meanwhile, Fauci has made developing a new flu vaccine “the top priority” of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.
He wants to oversee the creation of a universal flu vaccine...
“Namely, a vaccine that induces a response against the part of the virus that doesn’t change from season to season or from strain to strain,” Fauci said. “So that you don’t have to worry about these drifts that continually make our vaccine less than optimal.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2018/02/02/health/australian-flu-became-global/index.html
14 Sept 2016: The Royal Society UK: Explaining the geographical origins of seasonal influenza A (H3N2)
by Frank Wen, Trevor Bedford and Sarah Cobey
Most antigenically novel and evolutionarily successful strains of seasonal influenza A (H3N2) originate in East, South and Southeast Asia...
Asia has long been recognized as a major source of not only new influenza subtypes, but also new strains of seasonal influenza [1–4]. Influenza A/H3N2, A/H1N1 and two B lineages currently circulate in the human population, with the H3N2 subtype causing the most disease...
H3N2 first emerged in or near Hong Kong in 1968...
https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rspb.2016.1312?utm_campaign=TrendMD_MEX_BRA&utm_medium=cpc&utm_source=TrendMD
anecdotally, many Australians - just like me - would have known holiday-makers who spent most of their vacations in Hong Kong sick in their hotel rooms, and then returned to Australia with the flu.
FakeNewsMSM saw nothing racist in headlines like these from the UK! lol:
What is Australian flu? How to prevent the virus and the symptoms to look out for
Flu rates rise by 150% as Aussie Flu spreads
Fears of Australian flu deaths grow as infection spreads rapidly across UK in 24 hours
Aussie Flu in UK: What you need to know and how you can prevent it - The Australian Flu has the potential to be deadly
Bad day, mate: why Australian flu is tearing through the UK
If by socialize we coming within six feet of each other, that does happen randomly at grocery stores, on sidewalks, and pretty much everywhere in our normal daily routine.
How about the disease kills off the most susceptible and the survivors get on with their lives?
as THAT is how a disease “plays itself out”.
No fun if you die.
‘then it kinda ‘plays itself out’.
ha ha ha; boy, does it ever...
but it’s not random... people are creatures of habit. If you venn diagram their social behavior it becomes obvious than some individuals/groups never intersect other individuals/groups.
Modelers use the equal risk assumption because human behaviors are too complicated to modal or take to long, too many resources to research because every community is different.
This makes the model inaccurate from the beginning because the R0 is overestimated based on that first inadequate assumption. Garbage in, garbage out. That’s why the models have been continually revised downward.
Even assuming strict social distancing, their numbers continue to be off.
Christmas for my granddaughter. Jan 3 and 4 for me. Central fl.
Math was fun until they took the numbers away...
If you’d like to be on or off, please FR mail me.
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Related threads
10,000 pounds of BS in a 5,000 pound bag. This is about mass manipulation, not life saving.
Paging Dr. Wasshole, et. al, and Fearpers everywhere!
Israeli polymath asserting a 70 day cycle for the virus....can’t help it but it sounds very...errr “Biblical”??
Sweden also has only 20 days left on their clock - LOL - and even though Italy, Iran and Spain will be enough to prove this guy wrong - the Swedish data should be enough for even a Flubro to look at the guy as an idiot.
But - I'll bookmark and come back in 20 days.
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...... well, well, well. A little too late for reason now.
The NAZIs are in charge, and cleaning up this financial mess is quickly becoming nearly impossible.
Good plan by the bad guys.
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I think I could use a nice bottle of wine today here in PA. Oh .... our state government CLOSED all the liquor and wine stores.... not to be open any time soon.
Bummer.
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