Posted on 04/15/2020 1:19:15 PM PDT by Hojczyk
A prominent Israeli mathematician, analyst and former general claims simple statistical analysis demonstrates that the spread of COVID-19 peaks after about 40 days and declines to almost zero after 70 days — no matter where it strikes, and no matter what measures governments impose to try to thwart it.
Prof Isaac Ben-Israel, head of the Security Studies program in Tel Aviv University and the chairman of the National Council for Research and Development, told Israel’s Channel 12 (Hebrew) Monday night that research he conducted with a fellow professor, analyzing the growth and decline of new cases in countries around the world, showed repeatedly that “there’s a set pattern” and “the numbers speak for themselves.”
While he said he supports social distancing, the widespread shuttering of economies worldwide constitutes a demonstrable error in light of those statistics. In Israel’s case, he noted, about 140 people normally die every day. To have shuttered much of the economy because of a virus that is killing one or two a day is a radical error that is unnecessarily costing Israel 20% of its GDP, he charged.
But Ben-Israel said the figures — notably from countries, such as Singapore, Taiwan, and Sweden, which did not take such radical measures to shutter their economies — proved his point. (He also posted a Hebrew paper to this effect on Facebook, with graphs showing the trajectories.)
If the lockdowns instituted in Israel and elsewhere were not causing such immense economic havoc, there wouldn’t be a problem with them, he said. “But you shouldn’t be closing down the entire country when most of the population is not at high risk.”
Asked to explain why the virus had caused such a high death toll in countries such as Italy, he said the Italian health service was already overwhelmed. “It collapsed in 2017 because of the flu,” he said.
Barbash, speaking after Ben-Israel had left the studio, insisted that “we’re going to be living with the coronavirus for the next year.”
He added: “I strongly urge that we not let mathematicians — who know nothing about biology — determine when we lift the lockdown.”
Stop this BS now. Enough already. Whoever puts an end to this crap will be the hero.
We will see...I think it went thru Florida in January
All viruses play themselves out eventually.
We’ve got a bunch of experts running around claiming that this virus is going to behave unlike any other virus that we’ve ever seen on the planet and we’ll have to be on on house arrest unless and until there’s a vaccine.
If for some reason they DO believe that this virus is different from any humanity has ever seen (i.e. bioweapon) they need to come out and tell us that.
And even if so, the ChiComs are not God. They can’t change the basic nature of a virus THAT much.
Outside of Communism doctors Birx and Fauci may have caused the most economic damage to a country’s economy in history.
“I strongly urge that we not let mathematicians — who know nothing about biology “
So tell the applied biologists (um, doctors) to stop doing kiddie statistics that they don’t understand.
All of their shutdown orders were based on ludicrous and wild forecasts resting on absurd assumptions.
Probably better than computer models
Something never mentioned, or at least I haven’t heard anything about is, we know how many people are killed each year by the flu. What I want to know is if we didn’t have a flu vaccine every year, statistically how much would the death toll change?
How can this be? What mechanism explains it “playing itself out?”
In a sense, there's nothing that mathematicians don't know about because numbers are a representation of how the universe works. (No, I'm not a mathematician, nor do I play one on TV, nor did I stay at a Holiday Inn last night)
Here here! Having doctoral level training in statistics and providing statistical analysis for clinical research in the late 1980’s and early 90’s, I can assure you that many medical researchers know very little about statistical analysis and modeling, unless the educational program has changed radically.
This guys sounds like some Freepers here.
16 Jan 2018: Quartz: The flu vaccine is only about 30% effective but you should get it anyway
By Chase Purdy
Some media reports have speculated that this year’s flu shot will only be about 10% effective for Americans, based on results seen in Australia during its flu season. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said it expects this year’s effectiveness rate to be closer to last year’s number, between 32% and 39%...
Every February, a group of researchers from around the world meets at the World Health Organization to pin down three or four flu strains that might infect people in the Northern hemisphere during the following winter. In September, they consider the Southern hemisphere.
Despite a lack of certainty, health officials generally agree that the best way to protect a population is for as many people as possible to get the shot and participate in what scientists call “herd immunity.” ...
https://qz.com/1180874/the-flu-vaccine-is-only-about-30-effective-but-you-should-get-it-anyway/
bump
Sweden:
If the virus plays out after 70 days, and started in December, then it should have played out at the end of February.
I get that the author is trying to say once it starts in a given area. But what defines that area. 25% of counties in the US, have not had their first case yet. So it's far from played out in the US.
Medical doctors should not be in charge of the economy. I think they are too highly trained in a singular field of knowledge; most have lost humility and respect for other people.
Italy has an aged population and a very high population density so these reasons are the reason for the death rate, IMO.
If it declines to almost zero after 70 days, why are we still seeing 20,000-25,000 new cases a day after 90-100 days?
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