Posted on 04/13/2020 4:05:43 AM PDT by DoughtyOne
PING LIST
Some of you have asked to be placed on the COVID-19 Update Ping List. Those who give me a
request, will be placed on the list before the next Update is posted.
If a person has expressed an appreciation for the data I'm presenting, I may add that
person to the Ping List.
Some folks don't like to be on ping lists, and I won't mind if you would rather I remove your name
from the list.
COVID-19 Update
As of 04/11/2020 23:24 PDST (taken at 23:59)
Good morning everyone.
Thank you for stopping by to check out the COVID-19 Update.
Links to Data Sources Used to Create the COVID-19 Update: Located near the bottom of this post.
New: Mortality Workups / Numbers and Charts, US by State:
See Section above the US, New List Down Below States & Counties, & Spreadsheet
Links to other resources: Near the bottom of this post.
Commentary, Special Reports, and COVID-19 Update Information2: Interesting Tid-bits (hopefully)
If You're Interested, Please Check Out the Sweden Study Below
I added two more bits of information that are revealing, the Cases Per Million, and the
Mortality Per Million. It puts a different light on things.
Studying the Way the Reports are Disbursed on Certain Days of the Week
I'll be keeping tabs on the daily tallies by the day of the week for a while.
This report now resides down below the Saturation Rate and Infection Perecentage
figures at the bottom of the Global Section. A chart has been added.
Mortality Report
We're trying to keep tabs on the mortality figures to see if they are beginning to drop.
Here are figures of the rolling upward totals for four entities.
global osChina osUS
. Global osChina
DATE the US . . Global
-
03/07 17 480 497 3,594
03/08 21 685 706 3,825
03/09 26 864 890 4,026
03/10 28 1,094 1,122 4,284
03/11 38 1,428 1,466 4,638
03/12 40 1,508 1,548 4,720
03/13 47 2,189 2,236 5,429
03/14 57 2,573 2,630 5,833
03/15 69 3,227 3,296 6,513
03/16 85 3,839 3,924 7,154
03/17 113 4,599 4,712 7,954
03/18 140 5,407 5,547 8,810
03/19 196 6,557 6,753 10,030
03/20 252 7,858 8,110 11,399
03/21 329 9,411 9,740 13,049
03/22 396 10,909 11,305 14,706
03/23 428 12,632 13,060 16,563
03/24 581 14,766 15,347 18,919
03/25 753 16,890 17,643 21,308
03/26 1,301 19,484 20,785 24,077
03/27 1,704 22,762 24,466 27,761
03/28 2,229 25,293 27,522 30,852
03/29 2,488 28,226 30,714 34,018
03/30 3,170 31,345 34,515 37,820
03/31 4,055 34,987 39,042 42,354
04/01 5,112 38,837 43,949 47,261
04/02 6,095 43,743 49,838 53,160
04/03 7,403 48,208 55,611 58,937
04/04 8,454 53,012 61,466 64,795
04/05 9,620 56,563 66,183 69,514
04/06 10,943 60,542 71,485 74,816
04/07 12,875 65,937 78,812 82,145
04/08 14,797 70,417 85,214 88,549
04/09 16,691 75,718 92,409 95,745
04/10 18,747 80,667 99,414 102,753
04/11 20,580 84,948 105,528 108,867
04/12 22,115 88,813 110,923 114,269
Here's the chart to go along with those figures.
Here are figures revealing the daily growth for those four entities.
global osChina osUS
. Global osChina
DATE the US . . Global
-
03/08 4 205 209 231
03/09 5 179 184 201
03/10 2 230 232 258
03/11 10 334 344 54
03/12 2 80 82 82
03/13 7 681 688 709
03/14 10 384 394 404
03/15 12 654 666 680
03/16 16 612 628 641
03/17 28 760 788 800
03/18 27 808 835 856
03/19 56 1,150 1,206 1,220
03/20 56 1,301 1,357 1,369
03/21 77 1,553 1,630 1,650
03/22 67 1,498 1,565 1,657
03/23 32 1,723 1,755 1,857
03/24 153 2,134 2,287 2,356
03/25 172 2,124 2,296 2,389
03/26 548 2,594 3,142 2,769
03/27 403 3,278 3,681 3,684
03/28 525 2,531 3,056 3,091
03/29 259 2,933 3,192 166
03/30 682 3,119 3,801 3,802
03/31 885 3,642 4,527 4,534
04/01 1,057 3,850 4,907 4,907
04/02 983 4,906 5,889 5,899
04/03 1,308 4,465 5,773 5,777
04/04 1,051 4,804 5,855 5,858
04/05 1,166 3,551 4,717 4,719
04/06 1,323 3,979 5,302 5,302
04/07 1,932 5,395 7,327 7,329
04/08 1,922 4,480 6,402 6,404
04/09 1,894 5,301 7,195 7,196
04/10 2,056 4,949 7,005 7,008
04/11 1,833 4,252 6,085 6,085
04/12 1,535 3,865 5,400 5,402
Here's the chart to go with it
I think the daily growth chart helps out a lot there. Each day things look a little
better, so I am comfortable saying that for the moment both the global and U. S.
incidents of mortality, are declining.
Now, it is important to note that we are coming off weekend days when reporting
may have been less than robust. Lets see how it goes tomorrow before we celbrate.
The Following Addresses the Numbers Here in
the United States of America
Yesterday's Growth Rates Dropped off a Little More
Declared Cases in the United States
EOD DAY'S INCR'SD
DATE CASES GRWTH GROWTH
-
03/20 19,624 5,374 539
03/21 26,747 7,123 1,749
03/22 35,206 8,459 1,336
03/23 46,442 11,236 2,777
03/24 54,893 8,789 -2,427
03/25 60,197 13,966 5,177
03/26 85,991 16,794 2,828
03/27 104,839 18,848 2,054
03/28 124,665 19,826 978
03/29 143,025 18,360 -1,466
03/30 164,620 21,595 3,235
03/31 189,624 25,004 3,409
04/01 216,721 27,097 2,093
04/02 245,559 28,838 1,741
04/03 278,458 32,899 4,061
04/04 312,237 33,779 899
04/05 337,638 25,401 -8,378
04/06 368,376 30,738 5,337
04/07 399,929 31,553 815
04/08 435,160 35,231 3,678
04/09 466,299 31,139 -4,092
04/10 501,609 35,310 4,171
04/11 529,951 28,342 -6,968
04/12 557,590 27,639 -703
Once again I urge caution. We're coming off a Friday with oversized growth numbers
Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, & Serious/Critical Cases
in the United States
ACTIVE SERIOUS
DATE FATAL RECOV RESOLV CASES CRITICAL
-
03/20 252 152 404 19,220
03/21 329 176 505 26,242
03/22 396 178 574 34,632
03/23 428 178 606 45,836
03/24 581 354 935 54,296
03/25 753 619 1,372 67,825
03/26 1,301 1,868 3,169 82,822
03/27 1,704 2,622 4,326 100,513
03/28 2,229 3,231 5,460 119,205
03/29 2,488 4,562 7,050 135,975
03/30 3,170 5,507 8,677 155,943
03/31 4,055 7,251 11,306 178,318
04/01 5,112 8,878 13,990 202,731 5,005
04/02 6,095 10,403 16,498 229,061 5,421
04/03 7,403 12,283 19,686 258,772 5,787
04/04 8,454 14,825 23,279 288,958 5,870
04/05 9,620 17,977 27,597 310,041 8,702
04/06 10,943 19,810 30,753 337,623 8,983
04/07 12,875 22,711 34,586 365,343 9,169
04/08 14,797 22,891 37,688 397,472 9,279
04/09 16,691 25,928 42,619 423,680 10,011
04/10 18,747 27,314 46,061 455,548 10,917
04/11 20,580 30,502 51,082 478,869 11,471
04/12 22,115 32,634 54,749 502,841 11,766
Sometime around 17:00 PSDT the United States pass the 500 thousand mark of active cases.
Note that on the 10th, the U. S. had over 2,000 fatalities. Now we've had two days
since with less than 2,000.
Our Slice of the COVID-19 Pie Continues to Grow
There are a number of factors than can have impact on why we have so many of the global
cases. Perhaps we're ramping up the testing more than others.
Here is what those numbers looked like at the end of the day yesterday. Maybe the virus
was here a lot earlier than we thought. It's hard to tell.
DECLARED DAY'S ACTIVE DAY'S
DATE CASES CHGE CASES CHGE
-
03/20 7.125% 1.297% 10.934% 1.552%
03/21 8.704% 1.579% 13.000% 2.066%
03/22 10.377% 1.673% 15.343% 2.343%
03/23 12.170% 1.793% 17.411% 2.068%
03/24 13.053% 0.883% 18.369% 0.958%
03/25 14.657% 1.604% 20.190% 1.821%
03/26 16.140% 1.483% 21.454% 1.264%
03/27 17.530% 1.390% 22.920% 1.466%.
03/28 18.742% 1.212% 24.126% 1.206%
03/29 19.762% 1.020% 25.289% 1.163%
03/30 20.936% 1.174% 26.777% 1.488%
03/31 22.045% 1.109% 27.885% 1.108%
04/01 23.110% 1.065% 29.120% 1.235%
04/02 24.160% 1.050% 30.482% 1.362%
04/03 24.886% 0.726% 31.057% 0.575%
04/04 25.935% 1.049% 32.400% 1.343%
04/05 26.464% 0.529% 32.866% 0.466%
04/06 27.324% 0.860% 34.153% 1.287%
04/07 27.930% 0.606% 34.854% 0.701%
04/08 28.634% 0.704% 36.125% 1.271%
04/09 29.091% 0.457% 36.790% 0.665%
04/10 29.523% 0.432% 37.363% 0.573%
04/11 29.812% 0.289% 37.872% 0.509%
04/12 30.124% 0.312% 38.500% 0.628%
that can mitigate part of this. I've made it known it still sticks in my craw.
The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
without Mainland China
Global Cases Increased to Record Levels Today, Outside M/L China
Yes, back to still more numbers...
EOD DAY'S INCR'SD
DATE CASES GROWTH GROWTH - compared to day before
-
03/20 194,148 30,824 5,185
03/21 225,932 31,784 963
03/22 257,820 31,888 104
03/23 297,172 39,352 7,464
03/24 341,530 41,462 2,110
03/25 390,378 48,848 7,386
03/26 451,006 60,628 11,780
03/27 516,124 65,118 4,490
03/28 583,107 66,983 1,865
03/29 641,588 58,481 -8,502
03/30 704,051 62,463 3,982
03/31 777,887 73,836 11,373
04/01 855,389 77,502 3,666
04/02 933,937 78,548 1,046
04/03 1,036,395 102,458 23,910
04/04 1,121,349 84,954 -17,054
04/05 1,193.215 71,866 -13,088
04/06 1,265,487 72,272 386
04/07 1,349,117 83,630 11,358
04/08 1,436,669 87,552 3,922
04/09 1,519,961 83,292 -4,260
04/10 1,616,016 96,055 12,763
04/11 1,694,570 78,554 -17,501
04/12 1,767,831 73,261 -5,293
I am really liking the direction of those growth numbers. Toss out the last two
I do want to point out that we are just coming off a Friday, Saturday, Sunday set
here, so all bets are off for tomorrow. If it stays low too, that will be very
good.
Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active, and Serious/Crical Cases
Globally, Excluding M/L China
ACTIVE SERIOUS
DATE FATAL RECOV RESOLV CASES CRITICAL
-
03/20 8,110 16,393 24,503 169,645
03/21 9,740 19,995 29,735 196,197
03/22 11,305 25,485 36,790 221,030
03/23 13,060 28,470 41,530 258,538
03/24 15,347 35,256 50,603 290,927
03/25 17,643 40,467 58,210 332,168
03/26 20,785 48,084 68,869 382,137
03/27 24,466 56,801 81,267 434,857
03/28 27,522 64,777 92,299 490,808
03/29 30,714 76,342 107,056 534,532
03/30 34,515 89,989 124,504 579,547
03/31 39,052 102,121 141,163 636,724
04/01 43,949 118,092 162,041 693,348
04/02 49,838 135,204 185,042 748,895
04/03 55,611 150,014 205,625 839,770
04/04 61,466 170,309 231,775 889,574 41,993
04/05 66,183 185,921 252,104 941,111 45,633
04/06 71,485 208,635 280,120 985,367 47,201
04/07 78,812 224,264 303,076 1,046,041 47,743
04/08 85,214 253,546 338,760 1,097,909 47,990
04/09 92,409 278,059 370,468 1,149,493 49,001
04/10 99,443 299,451 398,894 1,217,122 49,692
04/11 105,528 326,847 432,375 1,262,195 50,485
04/12 110,928 352,960 463,888 1,303,943 50,735
Still expecting to see elevated numbers of recoveries any day now. Oh nevermind!
Grrrrrrrr...
Flattening...
There is flattening going on in the Global scene outside China and the U. S. Right now.
Lets review the situation again.
Here: (case growth)
-
Global Global (EC)
Excluding Minus the
China the U. S. U. S.
03/29 58,481 38,955 19,826
03/30 62,463 40,868 21,595
03/31 73,836 48,832 25,004
04/01 77,502 50,405 27,097
04/02 78,548 49,710 28,838
04/03 102,458 69,559 32,899
04/04 84,954 51,111 33,843
04/05 71,866 46,465 25,401
04/06 72,272 41,534 30,738
04/07 83,630 52,077 31,553
04/08 87,552 52,321 35,231
04/09 83,292 52,153 31,139
04/10 96,055 60,745 35,310
04/11 78,554 50,212 28,342
04/12 73,261 45,622 27,639
That center row of figures there, shows how the rest of the world is doing without
U. S. and China's numbers tossed in. There is definitely drop off taking place.
The only question at this point, is how much the weekend affected this, if at all.
I'm interested to see the numbers tomorrow, because things seem to be looking better
and I want to eliminate the weekend data collection as a factor.
The figures for the United States and the global osChina and osUS numbers all look
good there.
Special Section on France, Germany, Italy, and Spain
Case growth.
Lets Look at Some Numbers in Five Day Increments:
DATE FRANCE GERMANY ITALY SPAIN - 02/20 12 16 3 2 02/25 14 18 322 9 03/01 100 117 1,128 76 03/06 -- 653 -- 670 -- 4,636 -- 401 03/11 2,284 1,966 12,462 2,277 03/16 6,650 7,272 27,980 9,942 03/21 14,485 22,364 53,578 25,496 03/26 -- 29,566 -- 43,938 -- 80,589 -- 57,786 03/31 52,819 68,180 105,792 94,417 04/05 93,780 100,123 128,948 131,646 04/10 125,931 122,171 147,577 158,273 04/12 133,670 127,854 156,363 166,831 < 2 days not five
Just keeping an eye on these nations. France and Germany are neck and neck there, but
France seems to be moving beyond Germany.
Sweden and It's Neighbors, Who Has the Best Tactic Againt COVID-19?
Sweeden is doing their own thing with regard to isolating. I'm cheking to see if they
have the right idea or not. I'm not convinced either way at this point.
Here are some numbers to help us look at this issue.
DATE SWEDEN DENMARK FINLAND NORWAY - 02/21 1 0 1 0 02/26 2 0 1 1 03/02 15 4 6 25 03/07 -- 161 -- 27 -- 19 -- 156 03/12 599 617 59 702 03/17 1,196 1,024 321 1,471 03/22 1,934 1,514 626 2,385 03/27 -- 3,069 -- 2,700 -- 1,041 -- 3,771 04/01 4,947 3,290 1,446 4,877 04/06 7,206 4,875 2,176 5,865 04/11 10,151 6,191 2,905 6,409 04/12 10,483 6,369 2,974 6,525 < 1 day not five - Deaths 899 273 66 128 - Populace 10.33m 5.82m 5.53m 5.37m - C P M 1m 1,015 1,094 538 1,215 - M P M 1m 87 47 12 24
These cases grew over a respectable amount of time. Sweden doesn't look so bad at all when
you look at the Cases Per Million. It's the deaths that look worse. Still. Let's look at
those figures.
In deaths per million, Sweden's neighbors seem to be doing better. Still, 87 deaths per
million doesn't strike me as a terrible number. If you consider the contributing factors
there, I'll be it looks even less worse. And I suspect that if you check out Sweden's
death figures from all categories from 02/21 to present, I suspect you'll see this death
lose significance.
The Sweish death rate per million winds up being 0.000086%.
Sweden may be on the right track. We'll continue to follow this situation..
The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
including Mainland China*
Mainland China numbers make up 00.16% of today's cases globally
Nations With Lots of Cases
At the end of the day on 04/10/2020, there were: (Yes I finally changed from the 04/07
there.)
1 nation(s) with 550,000 plus (take a bow...) 4 nation(s) with 100,000 to 199,999 4 nation(s) with 50,000 to 99,999 5 natiom(s) with 20,000 to 49,999 6 nation(s) with 10,000 to 19,999 13 nation(s) with 5,000 to 9,999 37 nation(s) with 1,000 to 4,999There are currently 70 nations with a 1,000 count or above...
A Look at Declared, Resolved, and Active Cases, Includes M/L China
End of day figures follow:
DECLAR DAY'S RESOLVED DAY'S PCT DEC ACTIVE
DATE CASES GROWTH CASES GROWTH CS RESOL CASES
-
03/20 - 275,434 - 30,911 - 99,655 - 3,590 - 36.181% - 175,779
03/21 307,280 31,846 105,425 5,770 34.309% 201,855
03/22 339,259 31,979 113,540 8,115 33.467% 225,719
03/23 - 381,621 - 42,362 - 118,369 - 4,829 - 31.017% - 263,252
03/24 423,121 41,500 127,538 9,169 30.142% 295,583
03/25 472,109 48,998 136,178 8,640 28.845% 335,931
03/26 - 532,788 - 60.679 - 146,749 - 10,571 - 27.544% - 386,039
03/27 598,070 65,282 159,533 12,784 26.675% 438,537
03/28 665,164 67,094 171,077 11,544 25.720% 494,087
03/29 - 723,740 - 58,576 - 186,060 - 14,983 - 25.708% - 537,680
03/30 786,291 62,551 203,926 17,848 25.933% 582,383
03/31 860,181 73,890 220,713 16,085 25.659% 639,468
04/01 - 937,783 - 77,602 - 241,591 - 20,878 - 25.762% - 696,192
04/02 1,016,401 78,618 264,935 23,344 26.066% 751,466
04/03 1,118,921 102,520 285,706 20,771 25.534% 833,215
04/04 - 1,203,923 - 85,002 - 312,068 - 26,362 - 25.931% - 891,855
04/05 1,275,856 71,933 332,513 20,445 26.062% 943,343
04/06 1,348,184 72,328 359,618 27,105 26.674% 988,566
04/07 - 1,431,900 - 83,716 - 383,688 - 24,070 - 26.796% - 1,048,212
04/08 1,519,478 87,848 419,465 35,777 27.606% 1,100,283
04/09 1,602,885 83,407 451,259 31,794 28.153% 1,151,626
04/10 - 1,699,019 - 96,134 - 479,758 - 28,499 - 28.237% - 1,219,261
04/11 1,777,666 78,647 513,239 33,481 28.872% 1,264,427
04/12 1,850,966 73,300 544,892 31,653 29,438% 1,306,074
Over the last eight days, the Global percentage of resolved cases has What we're looking for is a declining increase in the numbers of active
cases. Once we've seen that become strong, the next thing we'll see
is declining active cases again. I will look at this tomorrow and
see if I can't come up with an estimate of when we can expect to see
active cases begin to decline.
Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active, and Serious/Crical Cases
Globally, Including M/L China
ACTIVE SERIOUS
DATE FATAL RECOV RESOLV CASES CRITICAL
-
03/20 11,399 88,256 99,655 175,779
03/21 13,049 92,376 105,425 201,855
03/22 14,706 98,834 113,540 225,719
03/23 16,563 101,806 118,369 263,252
03/24 18,919 108,619 127,358 295,583
03/25 21,308 114,870 136,178 335,931
03/26 24,077 122,672 146,749 386,039
03/27 27,761 131,772 159,533 438,537
03/28 30,852 140,225 171,077 494,087
03/29 34,018 152,042 186,060 537,680
03/30 37,820 166,088 203,908 582,383
03/31 42,354 178,359 220,713 639,468
04/01 47,261 194,330 241,591 696,192
04/02 53,160 211,775 264,935 751,466
04/03 58,937 226,769 285,706 833,215
04/04 64,795 247,273 312,068 891,855 42,288 ch 295
04/05 69,514 262,999 332,513 943,343 45,898 ch 265
04/06 74,816 284,802 359,618 988,566 47,412 ch 211
04/07 82,145 301,543 383,688 1,048,212 47,932 ch 189
04/08 88,549 330,916 419,464 1,100,283 48,166 ch 176
04/09 95,475 355,514 451,259 1,151,626 49,145 ch 144
04/10 102,782 376,976 479,758 1,219,261 49,833 ch 141
04/11 108,867 404,372 513,239 1,264,427 50,624 ch 139
04/12 114,269 430,623 544,892 1,306,074 50,856 ch 121
Big numbers, but shortly the big Recovery numbers will start coming in. Hey
Population Saturation
Here are figures revealing how many people in each population base represent one case.
I'm also showing what percent of each population base is infected at this time.
1 CASE IN
THIS NUMBER CHANGE CHANGE
OF PEOPLE ON ON
ENTITY 04/12 04/11 04/10 04/12 04/11
-
Globally : 5,949 6,145 6,373 -196 -228
Outside China : 5,959 6,156 6,384 -197 -328
The U. S. A. : 657 690 725 -33 -65
-
INFECTION LEVEL
OF ENTIRE CHANGE CHANGE
POPULACE ON ON
ENTITY 04/12 04/11 04/10 04/12 04/11
-
Globally : 00.0161% 00.0155% 00.0149% 00.0006% 00.0006%
Outside China : 00.0204% 00.0198% 00.0191% 00.0006% 00.0007%
The U. S. A. : 00.1522% 00.1449% 00.1379% 00.0073% 00.0070%
These saturation rates are troubling. The percentge of our populace infected is too,
Report Disbursement on Certain Days of the Week
I'll be keeping tabs on the daily tallies by the day of the week for a while. Folks have
noticed some patterns of larger and smaller data entry days, and on Fridays sometimes
the numbers get very large because of it.
Let's check out the numbers and a chart.
Wk/of Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon - 03/06 2,223 2,265 2,962 3,801 3,977 3,876 4,411 03/13 4,411 4,680 2,085 17,028 11,031 13,847 12,158 03/20 15,748 20,668 25,700 30,911 31,846 31,979 42,362 03/27 41,500 48,988 60,679 65,282 67,094 58,576 62,551 04/03 73,890 77,602 78,618 102,520 85,002 71,933 72,328 04/10 72,328 87,578 83,407 96,134 78,647 73,300
Friday's do seem to have a bias in favor of larger reports of new cases.
I'll keep tracking this for at least a few more weeks to give folks a chance to detect
patterns not only on Fridays, but other days as well.
States of the Union, the District of Columbia, and Territories...
I still have this available in the Excel format, linked below. I thought folks might
like to have access to it here. I list the states alphabetically. On the right side
of that listing is the ranking number in the list by descending cases. Look up your
state alphabetiall, get that number, and look at the list on the right to find look
at how the other states stand next to yours.
Here is the Standing of 200 Counties in the U. S.
I still have this available in the Excel format, linked below. I thought folks might
like to have access to it here. I list the Counties alphabetically. On the right
side of that listing is the ranking number in the list by descending cases. You can
look to see if your county is listed. Hopefully not... If you find it, you can look
at the numberical list to compare to other counties.
Here are the Mortality Figures for the States
I still have this available in the Excel format, linked below. I thought folks might
like to have access to it here. I list the States alphabetically. On the right
side of that listing is the ranking number in the list by descending cases. You can
find your state using the alphabetical side, then compare it using the numberical side.
Here's what it's all about. From January 20th to the present.
This concludes our look back at yesterday's data. Take care...
Data for this Report Sourced From:
LINK Johns Hopkins University
The Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE)
LINK WorldoMeters
LINK You are Invited to Review My COVID-19 Spreadsheet (XLSX)
There is not an XLS version available for distribution at this time.
Other Features:
LINK US States DC51, Territories5+, and Counties200
Excel Spreadsheet with Alphabetical and Numerically descending Cases
LINK US States DC51, and Territories5+
Excel Spreadsheet with Alphabetical and Numerically descending Mortality Figures
Links to other resources:
I cannot vouch for these sites. Please use your own discression.
LINK Adventist Health Coronavirus Resource Hub - Scroll down for useful info
LINK CDC Data for Download - Scroll down - Excel required. Includes death stats.
LINK CDC Secondary Data and Statistics - Portal Entry / Look around
LINK Coronavirus (COVID-19) Map
LINK COVID-19 First U.S. Case, Treatment, features Remdesivir
New England Journal of Medicine article
LINK Diamond Princess Review at 634 Case Point of Eventual 712
LINK earlyAlert
LINK Hydroxychloroquine Article: International Poll
Daily Mail Reports, Most Effective Treatment According to 6,000 Physicians
LINK IHME - Institute for Health Matrix and Evaluation
LINK National Institutes of Health - Cornavirus (COVID-19)
LINK New York City - interesting breakdown, burough, age, sex
LINK World Health Organization
TRUMP - PENCE
||
\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\ || ///////////////////////////////////////////
Thats it?....a measly 115 k....
Already over the hump nationally. Once NY and NJ are tamped down, the crisis will end fairly quickly. NY/NJ account for more than half of the deaths and 40% of the cases.
Thank you for the update and your observations each day.
“””Note that on the 10th, the U. S. had over 2,000 fatalities. Now we’ve had two days since with less than 2,000.”””
Keep in mind that it was on March 24 Trump said that on April 12 (Easter Sunday) there might be a turning point.
Trump has a lot of friends in the financial markets who are quite rich because they are meticulous number crunchers.
I would not be surprised if we were to find out that Trump reached out to those friends many weeks ago to crunch the corona numbers and give him some good forecasts.
Please add me to the ping list
I’m enjoying your statistical analysis of this pandemic. Makes me miss my days as a financial analyst cranking out excel spreadsheets.
Keep up the good work.
Adam Townsend
@adamscrabble
Stanford professor of medicine John Ioannidis concludes the risk of death from Covid19 for people under 65 years of age, even in global „hotspots“, is equivalent to the risk of a fatal car accident for daily commuters driving between 9 and 400 miles.
On Wednesday April 1 I began tracking the number of ‘serious, critical’ cases being reported in the USA.
These are the people who may likely die in the next few days.
If the ‘serious, critical’ number goes up, we will likely see more deaths. On the other hand if the various drugs being tested are effective in treating the virus, the ‘serious, critical’ number should go down.
Here are the numbers:
Apr 1 Wed 5005
Apr 2 Thu 5421
Apr 3 Fri 5787
Apr 4 Sat 8206
Apr 5 Sun 8702
Apr 6 Mon 8879
Apr 7 Tue 9169
Apr 8 Wed 9279
Apr 9 Thu 10,011
Apr 10 Fri 10916
Apr 11 Sat 11471
Apr 12 Sun 11766
According to your chart, there have been approx. 22,000 deaths as of 4/13/20.
The flu season of 2017-18 infected 48.8 million people, hospitalized 959,000 and killed 79,000........
We're not even close to those figures, we won't get close to those figures and yet we're destroying our economy and forcing people to live under essentially a police state in their respective states........
Anti-foreigner Chinese cartoon with subtitles.
China is Asshoe.™
Thank you for your focus on Sweden. It is appreciated. Switzerland and the Netherlands had their own version of Sweden. Also, Japan.
I find it hard to believe that anyone whose business is affected by this mess or who is out of work because of the same, and who thinks, is not asking the question, “Why are we doing this?” Especially, when we look at the countries above. Maybe we have slightly modified the number of cases toward the downside, but at what cost overall and the BIG issue — no one has immunity.
What happens, with the virus, when people remove themselves from their caves? That question applies to both the short and long term (fall). If we end up with a vaccine I don’t see it being available before then. The vaccine will show up about as fast as the CARES act stimulus has shown up! NOT.
USA Daily Confirmed Rate Increase % since 3/23
31.87
18.91
25.32
24.3
21.86
18.4
14.71
15.07
15.43
13.91
14.01
13.02
12.23
8.34
8.95
8.44
7.97
8.91
7.71
5.76
4.93
USA Daily Fatality Rate Increase % since 3/23
24.84
36.39
30.92
24.19
31.6
27.62
14.02
20.87
29.42
31.26
18.31
17.72
18.96
13.6
13.28
18.08
14.32
13.15
12.37
10.04
7.15
Sweden’s Fatality rate is 8.58%. That’s probably BoomerRemover in action. Don’t treat high-risk patients who are a drain on the socialized system. Luckily for them, that practice has run its course and they are on the downhill side of the fatality rate.
Note: You want your confirmed rate increase to be higher than your fatality rate increase. That means you are winning the battle. New York(3.99 vs 8.5 confirmed vs fatality) is still in trouble but North Carolina(5.32 vs 1.12) is winning. My state (Va) is as bad as NY.
“Luckily for them, that practice has run its course and they are on the downhill side of the fatality rate.”
Yes, they are on the downhill side and they did it without closing down their society. They are not the only ones, either. If we are to make shut down decisions on such whimsy situations, how about shutting down all cars that kill 1,250,000 a year, or all flu that kills between 35,000 and 70,000 a year? We can all just go home and live in a bubble, can’t we? We can all be like “bubble boy.”
By the way, I happen to be high-risk as both a former cancer patient with kidney failure. I’m smart enough to keep myself at home. I don’t need to thrust this nonsense on the rest of society because I’m high risk. And, I sure don’t need a government mandate to tell me and the rest of society to “lock yourself in.” Let the high risk take the precautions, not the rest of society that represents the 85% to 90% of the population!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.