Posted on 04/09/2020 1:31:25 PM PDT by grundle
2. Cuomo and DeBlasio have both been exposed as grandstanding, Trump-hating attention whores, who would do and say anything if they thought it would score political points or even better, score federal cheese.
3. “ The second tier has yet to be enacted, but would send bodies to the potter's field on Hart Island in the Bronx, where inmates would bury the deceased at the jail on Rikers Island.”
So, there’s a “plan” to have prisoners dig holes... And they ordered temporary morgues to be set up. Neither of these proves anything, other than that Cuomo and DeBlasio are either as panicked as all of the other pearl-clutchers, or (far more likely) just trying to keep the panic rolling for their own political purposes.
Your “evidence” is about as substantial as I expected it to be.
Is the decline in growth rate really a result of the social distancing measures or is it just the natural course of the pandemic — that’s the question. I don’t have enough expertise to provide a real answer, and I’m not sure we’ll ever know definitively.
+++++
What you say is basically true. But we will start generating data on that issue when we start sending people back to work and to football games. The curves are very likely to turn up at that point, I hope they don’t but I expect they will. If so it will hopefully be a slow rising.
“Post hoc ergo prompter hoc” is a logical fallacy. Literally translated the Latin phrase means “After the fact, therefore because of the fact”. A drop in growth rate of infections was to be expected; the progression of every other pandemic in human history has followed the same course. We don’t know for sure whether or not the lockdown caused the drop. More accurately, we don’t know if the lockdown caused the drop to be larger than what would have naturally occurred without a lockdown. You can certainly express an opinion on the matter and you may even be right, but to just dismiss this study as stupid is begging the question— you are assuming the conclusion you wish to reach, that the lockdown caused a larger decline than what would have naturally occurred.
Read my post right above yours. From the very article in question it seems having prisoners dig graves in NYC is nothing new.
“I’m wondering what we are going to do with 100k unused respiratory machines. And what does it cost to maintain and keep them calibrated? What a cluster f*.”
They can be sent to New York, where they will brag about the stockpile they’ve acquired “for the next pandemic”. But before that next pandemic arrives their stock pile will not have been maintained so well, and the models they have will no longer be sold, so they will auction them off; and spend the money on general state expenses. Then a few years will go by and they’ll be hit by another pandemic, whereupon New York will be yelling at some President that they need more respiratory machines.
Agreed but that’s pretty much the point of this study. This study is saying that the lockdown had no effect. If that’s true, then we may not see that uptick. I sincerely hope these researchers are right and you are not, but I tend to agree that there will be some uptick.
So you go live in the Czech Republic, I’ll go live in Sweden.
Actually I hope I am wrong as well, that there is some unknown source that is slowing down the spread of the virus. But at this point all we have as evidence is that rates started to fall about a week after the start of the Trump 15 day plan.
That’s not much evidence. But it is all we have.
What did they do? Visit an alternate reality?
Tweet #19 from Tsai:
3 Apr: Tweet: A. Tsai, Father, psychiatrist @GlobalHealthMGH, population health scientist @MonganInstitute & @HarvardPopCtr.
19/ I’ll conclude with a word from @NIAIDNews director Dr Anthony Fauci: “If you look at what’s going on in this country, I just don’t understand why we’re not doing that [ie., implementing a federally mandated stay at home order]”
Tsai Retweeted Anderson Cooper 360°
Dr. Anthony Fauci made it clear that he supports all Americans being under a stay-at-home order.
“If you look at what’s going on in this country, I just don’t understand why we’re not doing that. We really should be.” #CNNTownHall https://cnn.it/3dNwE2V
2 Apr 2020
https://twitter.com/drdrtsai/status/1246191491808210945
That you. That means that the mean daily growth will tend downward as the cumululative cases always grow (except when new cases goes to zero). So the important metric is the slope, correct?
I meant, “thank you.”
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