Agreed but that’s pretty much the point of this study. This study is saying that the lockdown had no effect. If that’s true, then we may not see that uptick. I sincerely hope these researchers are right and you are not, but I tend to agree that there will be some uptick.
Actually I hope I am wrong as well, that there is some unknown source that is slowing down the spread of the virus. But at this point all we have as evidence is that rates started to fall about a week after the start of the Trump 15 day plan.
That’s not much evidence. But it is all we have.