Posted on 04/09/2020 1:31:25 PM PDT by grundle
There was no additional decline after lockdowns were implemented. The whole rationale for lockdowns is to #StopTheSpread better than through social distancing.
Perish the thought that people might look at this elite research team’s findings and ask their elected leaders to justify life-ruining, economy-destroying, health-worsening lockdowns with actual evidence that they #SlowTheSpread by themselves, not just piggybacking on less draconian measures.
(Excerpt) Read more at thecollegefix.com ...
I show 8% but the new confirmed rate should go up as we get more testing which causes the fatality rate to drop. The increase in deaths rate is what you watch
They opened up another morgue. Why would you need to do that in NYC? They are also showing pics of mass burial somewhere in NYC using prisoners.
Hospitals won't admit anyone based on 'panic mode'.
What morgue? Where? And where are these graves being dug by prisoners? You’re going to have to provide a lot more specific, verifiable information to convince me, or anyone else who isn’t hiding their bed.
‘Okay, But if that’s the conclusion they want to come to, then...
Possibilities: These researchers are stupid.’
but if they come to the conclusion you want, then they’re not stupid, right...?
If I do, will you accept it or is it a waste of my time?
Also, building or opening a morgue doesn’t mean much anyway. They put up “field hospitals” in some places, which sat empty.
If you have such solid facts, I would think you’d want to share them with everyone, regardless of whether I “accept” them or not. I can assure you that I will at least try to confirm/verify it.
Oh yeah. I bet NYC throws together morgues every other day
https://thehill.com/homenews/news/490847-new-york-city-sets-up-45-new-mobile-morgues
Well I was going to come up with all these facetious possibilities, such as spreads through computers, or it’s caused by 5G.
But there is no way a lock down with physical distancing isn’t reducing the spread. If your not anywhere other people who is going to give it to you?
And the fact is that we’ve seen a flattening in the number of cases. And that was after the lock down occurred. Anyone should be able to look at the data and say, yes we are seeing an effect.
So there is only one possibility. These researchers are stupid.
Who is it really killing?
bkmk
Thanks for sharing.
It is 8% today. But I’m using a 7 day average to smooth out the wrinkles in the reporting so that makes mine a bit higher.
As to the death rate being the thing to watch, that was my thinking also. But that rate is going to be what it is and there is not much we can do about it. That is up to the doctors and their willingness to prescribe the Trump Pill.
All we can possibly control is the infection rate and that will depend how much Americans are willing to put up with Social Distancing and how hard the Government pushes them to do so. I expect Trump to ease off some at the end of April, companies and business to take extra measures to minimize new infections in the workplace and the public to very slowly and carefully loosen up on the Social Distancing.
Ask yourself if you would go to your favorite restaurant if it opened tonight. I’m betting you wouldn’t. How about in a couple of months from now? I’m betting you would.
It’s 8% and falling. It’s not going up and down.
You are correct. Right now it is pretty steady down.. But look back to March and look at the numbers. Plenty of up and down there.
Averaging is just a convenient way to see a trend in noisy data. It will always be different than the most recent data point. But not by much. And for leveled out data it will be identical.
Wait until we inevitability ease off on the Social Distancing. You will see the daily numbers dancing once again. Then they are very likely to be moving up - very slowly we hope.
Not hard at all. Mean daily growth rate for a given day is the number of new cases that day divided by the cumulative number of cases that were identified prior to that day. For instance, assuming no more cases reported for today (I’m writing this with just over an hour left on 4/9) there were 30,313 new US cases today. Yesterday’s cumulative total was 434,927. Today’s growth rate is 30313/434927 = 0.0697, or just under 7%.
Note that the daily growth rate can never be negative. It can be zero when there are no new cases, but it will be positive if any new cases are identified. Also a decline in daily growth rate does not imply a decline in the number of new cases. To illustrate, assume the numbers above remain accurate for 4/9. That would give a new cumulative total of 465,240. To maintain the same growth rate on 4/10, there would have to be 465240 x 0.0697 = 32,425.717 new cases (obviously the number of new cases can’t be a decimal). That means that 32,425 or fewer new cases tomorrow would be a decline in daily growth rate.
What we don’t know is what the growth rate would have been had the measures not been implemented. It is not necessarily true that it would have remained constant or increased absent these measures. Any statement otherwise is just begging the question.
All disease outbreaks, despite all the panic about exponential growth, have followed more closely a logistic growth model. This is a model where initial growth rates are low, but increasing. The growth rate at some point reaches a peak and then begins to decline. That describes very well the path that the current outbreak has taken, as illustrated by the data you posted. Is the decline in growth rate really a result of the social distancing measures or is it just the natural course of the pandemic — that’s the question. I don’t have enough expertise to provide a real answer, and I’m not sure we’ll ever know definitively.
Did you read the article you linked? That article quite clearly was talking about people who died anonymously and whose remains were not claimed by family (or anyone else). Such people have historically been buried on Hart’s island pre-Coronavirus. It also mentioned that prisoners from Riker’s Island have historically been given the task of burying such people. In other words, nothing really different from historical practice is going on, other than that some of these people were killed by Coronavirus, rather than other causes.
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