Posted on 04/06/2020 11:48:41 AM PDT by yoe
For better or for worse, the University of Washington’s IHME model has become, for many governmental units, the go-to set of projections relating to the Wuhan coronavirus in the U.S. Governments credit the IHME’s forecasts of cases, deaths, hospitalizations, and strain on medical resources.
Until today, the IHME was forecasting 93,531 deaths from the virus (through early August). Now, it has (to 81,766). This number is in line with the model’s initial forecast (or at least the first such forecast of which I’m aware).
The model still predicts that the daily death rate from the virus will peak on April 16.
[snip] The IHME model assumes that all states will lock down — closing schools, telling residents to stay at home, closing nonessential businesses — and that “implementation and adherence to these measures is complete.” It also assumes the continuation of social distancing until early August, well beyond the April 30 guidelines currently set forth by the White House.
(Emphasis added)
(Excerpt) Read more at powerlineblog.com ...
We CANNOT close down until August!!! Our country will take YEARS to come back if we opened up on Easter!
There would be riots.
NYC has quit counting at home deaths:
An estimated additional 180 - 195 deaths per day occurring at home in New York City due to COVID-19 are not being counted in the official figures. “Early on in this crisis we were able to swab people who died at home, and thus got a coronavirus reading. But those days are long gone. We simply don’t have the testing capacity for the large numbers dying at home. Now only those few who had a test confirmation *before* dying are marked as victims of coronavirus on their death certificate. This almost certainly means we are undercounting the total number of victims of this pandemic,” said Mark Levine, Chair of New York City Council health committee
Three weeks ago Cal. governor predicted 25 million infected just in his state over 8wk period. Actually numbers just over 15,000.
I estimate that they are overestimated.
Gates and Soros would still be doing fine, thanks.
80,000 dead in the winter of 2017/2018 and the health system did not collapse nor was the economy shut down by a panicked government.
https://www.statnews.com/2018/09/26/cdc-us-flu-deaths-winter/
How convenient.
according the early-on task force briefings, the models were set up using Italian data. IMO that was completely wrong as the Italians did everything wrong. Plus they had those close ties to China. It was a case of apples and oranges. As we see now the projections were grossly off.
How many years?
REAKING: Worldwide new COVID-19 cases peaked on April 3 at 101,566, and are falling at a substantial rate — with a drop of 16% on April 4 and another drop of 15% on April 5 to 71,418, marking the lowest level of reported new cases since March 30.
— Paul Sperry (@paulsperry_) April 6, 2020
More DEATHS than from the virus!!
It seems the left is winding down this phase of the crisis. The next phase is to blame President Trump (impeachment 2.0) for the ashes at America’s feet.
Trump will NEVER let that happen NEVER this country will be open on May 1st bank on it!!!
Yet despite all their daily overhyping and scaremongering and projecting the numbers just do not even come close to favoring them and their hoped for projections, IHME and the liberals that is.
It will be 53,592, later to be revised down into the low 40K’s when ‘died with’ and ‘died of’ are properly applied.
Trump is looking hard at the REAL numbers vs. what the doomsayers are telling him. It appears that the curve is flattening already.
Wonder if these numbers are dropping because of the hydrocloroquine MANY countries are using it!!!
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