Posted on 04/01/2020 6:53:59 AM PDT by Hojczyk
In New England Journal of Medicine, nation's infectious disease chief suggests COVID-19 mortality rate may end like bad seasonal flu.
But among his learned colleagues in academia, he has provided the more conservative analysis.“
[T]he case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%,” Fauci wrote in an article published in the New England Journal of Medicine on March 26. “This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of COVID-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.”
A day after the NEJM article was published, Fauci was back to repeating the higher fatality number in public rather than “considerably less than 1%.”
“The mortality of [COVID-19] is about 10 times [flu],” Fauci told Comedy Central host Trevor Noah on March 27.
Fauci was not available to answer questions when Just the News contacted him, his office said. A source familiar with the background of the NEJM article says it was written many weeks ago and was attempting to convey that coronavirus mortality appears to be closer to that of a severe flu season than the earlier coronavirus outbreaks known Sudden Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) or Middle East Respiratory Syndrome, (MERS).
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Calculating the death rate for a disease is mathematically simple, requiring 4th or 5th grade skills. Take the number of deaths (numerator) divided by the whole group (denominator). But officials have routinely made what some scientists see as an error in defining “the whole group.” They use the relatively small number of sick patients testing positive.
(Excerpt) Read more at justthenews.com ...
I cannot stand Fauci. Haven’t liked him from the get go. Birx had promise, but seems to be going down the Fauci path. I just don’t see the scenario where one gets to the level of infections that produces the deaths they are forecasting.
Fauci really just hearing himself talk and all the media attention. it comes across (to me) when I see some of his interviews.
Fauci covering his ass - what a fraud.
Currently, the mortality rate in the US is about 2%, up in the last few days from about 1.8%.
The seasonal flu killed 56,000 people in 2012-2013. So far with the Chinese Flus we are at 4,081.
The one says go ahead, play in traffic. Your odds of dying from a heart attack is much higher. The other says stay off of busy public streets when traffic is flowing.
Well, in fairness, this article in the Journal of Medicine is a bit dated. Donut is possible that the realities on the ground shaped his projections.
But having said that, he has no clue. He has no idea as neither does anyone else.
He is crying worst case scenarios to gain compliance with his ONLY solution to this virus, namely, lockdown. He is on record as poo pooing any treatment. Unless any treatment goes through the normal trial processes, he will not hear of it.
The best I have heard him say of the cloroquine combo regimen is that he would prescribe it “as a last resort.”
Fauci is the wrong man for this. He is a DC bureaucrat first and anything else last.
This is the problem Trump is dealing. He has career bureaucrats surrounding him who are interested in seeing him fail so many of them are giving him conflicting and contradictory advice. Rush said on his show yesterday to the affect that many of the people around the president wish he wasn’t the president and the one in charge!
This guy has hedged and hawed and equivocated so much, I don’t know what to think.
Tells me they still don’t have good data and are making educated guesses based on bad/incomplete data.
And that the virus will have washed through before they can rectify that.
Fauci wrote in an article published in the New England Journal of Medicine on March 26.
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The date of publication is a little confusing. It seems to have first been published on February 28.
And according to the disclosure form, Fauci submitted it to the journal on Feb 16.
It’s amazing how many people direct ire to Fauci over whatever.
It doesn’t matter what his predictions are or are not.
He doesn’t know what’s going to happen, and he doesn’t know what’s not going to happen.
Chinese WMD is going to do what Chinese WMD is going to do regardless of what anyone says or doesn’t say.
It is its own factor now.
Thank you, Chiner.
CDC was too busy with Climate Change to prepare for a pandemic.
Agree, but add undiagnosed cases into the mix, and the rate would drop. At any rate, it is increasing.
NO it's not. 2% is the morality rate of those that have been tested. Which is lower then the flu mortality rate of those that been tested.
“I cannot stand Fauci. Haven’t liked him from the get go. Birx had promise, but seems to be going down the Fauci path. I just don’t see the scenario where one gets to the level of infections that produces the deaths they are forecasting.”
They explained it yesterday. They are not there to give rosy Forecasts but to give a planning tool for Trump to provide resources.
If you had watched them, you would know that they are projecting using NY and NJ curves.
If you had watched them you would have heard them say they are NOT accepting the 100-250k deaths as fixed.
If you had watched them you would have seen them point to the Washington curve and state that if the rest of the nation follows that curve we would be in good shape.
If you had watched them you wouldn’t have made that post.
“Fauci covering his ass - what a fraud.”
You didn’t watch yesterday’s briefing.
Your unwarranted post indicates your ignorance on the subject.
Whining from your seat on the anti Fauci bandwagon is unbecoming
Simplicity and Continuity is for me!
Complexity and Change is wtf ya get from gubmint,biz,edu,so forth,etc.
‘Cept TRUMP.45! when he can get by w/it!/??????
SemperTRUMP!
GunnyG@PlanetWTF/WNW!
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For people in government and the media, there is no downside to maximizing the risk estimate. They are all in more-panicked-than-you mode. They are all scrambling to get to the hysterical side of every comparison. And if the impact of the pandemic turns out to be vastly less than they predicted, they will take credit for having issued the warning that saved lives. No downside risk; no premium for being right. And they will all get paid, regardless. Crushing the economy for everyone else does not matter to most of them; for the government sector and the insulated elites, this will merely reduce competition for status goods and enhance their own influence.
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