The real disruption should be obvious as some of these retail/restaurant chains have started announcing that they won’t be paying rent to their commercial landlords while they’re closed.
I’m willing to bet all of them are now discussing which locations will not reopen or open and immediately liquidate that location. The longer this drags on the less likely they will have jobs to return to.
Companies like Macy’s have been closing stores for years now, I believe this will accelerate that trend.
I would suggest that if we are still in a locked-down mode in July...you can bet that one-third of all commercial buildings will be shut-down and closed for the remainder of 2020, and probably going through most of 2021.
There are key mechanism of the economy which will suggest problems. For example....most toys for the Christmas period, are made in China. If production is 50-percent...go imagine what options you have for kids in November/December.
Go imagine movie studios and their production schedule, and the crowds that may or may not show up for the summer period. Why release a blockbuster in June, if only one-third of theaters are open?
Go look at Vegas and the casino effect in July and August.