New Fed study finds efforts to slow pandemic don’t depress the economy

Market Watch ^ | 03/27/2020 | Steve Goldstein

[Responsibility2nd]

The economy isn’t helped by rushing back to work in the face of a pandemic, according to a new study by Federal Reserve researchers.

At a time when the lieutenant governor of Texas has said senior citizens would be willing to sacrifice their lives for a better economy and when President Trump has fretted that the cure may be worse than the disease, a new research paper looked at the impact of the 1918 Spanish flu on the U.S. economy.

Far from hurting the economy, what are called nonpharmaceutical interventions — for example, shutting schools, establishing quarantines and restricting business hours — mitigate economic harm as well as reduce mortality, the researchers determined.

The study by Sergio Correia of the Federal Reserve Board, Stephan Luck of the New York Fed and Emil Verner of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Sloan School of Management found, on average, an 18% decline in state manufacturing output at the typical level of exposure.

Reacting 10 days earlier to the arrival of the pandemic in a given city increases manufacturing employment by around 5% in the post period, the researchers said. Implementing restrictions for an additional 50 days increases manufacturing employment by 6.5% after the pandemic abates.

[MNJohnnie]

Ok then let just not go back to work at all.

HOW about the shameless lying for partisan political reasons END NOW.

You cannot shut down whole industries and idle millions of people for a month and not massively impact the economy.

This article is so stupid it hurts.

Basically what they did is they ignored all the locks downs, all the close businesses and made up imaginary doomsday number of possible “victims”

Here the current number of critical cases today in the US as a whole today: 2463.

So all this fantasy make believe about “the economic damage of opening too early” is made up data to validate a pre determined partisan political dogma

These are the same sort of “theoretical analysis” who told us the death toll in the US would reach 93,000,000.

It time for the partisan lying and politicizing to stop. It time for real analysis of real data not make believe theorizing by people pushing an agenda

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[MNJohnnie]

Exactly it made up BS by people who are manipulating analysis to validate their pre determined poltical agenda. It pure garbage in, garbage out statistical manipulation

Any rational being can see this “analysis” is total bs.

You cannot put 10s of millions into lock down, close whole industries and NOT impact the economy. What we are doing right now is the same thing a recession does to the economy. Only we doing it in just a few weeks not over months

[david1292]

They are looking for anything they can find to keep the lockdowns going.... even data from 100 years ago.

[DesertRhino]

Laughable

[isthisnickcool]

This is the stupidest thing I’ve read. Maybe ever.

[Wuli]

apples and oranges

What did the American economy of 1918 look like - what were its biggest features, its largest branches of employment, largest industries, how were they disbursed and how concentrated, and what were the demographics of all that - compared to all that in 2020.

Two very different economies with very different aspects that represented the economic engines of the day. They also were two different economies with the US demographics very different as well.

In 1920 about 30% of the population lived on farms, versus about 1% today. In 1920 about 50% of the population lived in cities; today its about 80%. Here’s a comparison of the economic distribution of industries 1915 and 2015:

https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2016/employment-by-industry-1910-and-2015.htm

There are tons of demographic and economic attributes that make the U.S. economies of 1918 and 2020 different enough as to render useless a study that compares the impact of a pandemic on them.

[youngidiot]

Bullshit

[DannyTN]

"You cannot put 10s of millions into lock down, close whole industries and NOT impact the economy. "

You can't have an illness with a mortality of 10 times the seasonal flu circulating and NOT impact the economy.

So pick your poison.

Either the economy crashes from a sustatined effort to stop the spread or at least slow the spread and flatten the curve so that hospitals aren't overwhelmed.

Or the economy crashes when people self-quarantine to protect themselves from the virus.

It turns out that there is a lot we can do. It's estimated that 60% of Americans can work from home. Official support for that increases productivity over what would happen otherwise.

If we can get a sufficient supply of masks first to the healthcare providers and then to the public, then life can return to some normalcy.

[Professional]

CNN headline the other day stated that Going Back To Work Would Cause Great Depression.

So stupid that I needed an aspirin...

[KarlInOhio]

Far from hurting the economy, what are called nonpharmaceutical interventions — for example, shutting schools, establishing quarantines and restricting business hours — mitigate economic harm as well as reduce mortality, the researchers determined.

So the comparison is not "everyone stays home vs. everyone goes back to work". It's "everyone stays home vs. everyone goes back to work, gets sick and a lot die". Pick an infection and a mortality rate and you could get that comparison either way.

[gibsonguy]

Absolute BS. The rats and deep state are terrified the economy will come back before November.

[griswold3]

100 years ago they did not leverage their businesses like today.

[dfwgator]

So stupid that I needed an aspirin...

Just don't take Ibuprofen.

[HarleyD]

How on earth could one compare the 1913 flu economy impact to 2020? Did they have cruise ships, resturants galore, airlines, interstate highways with hotels every exit all that will be financially impacted? The economy is far different than it was in 1913. Who came up with this stupid study?

[HarleyD]

That should be 1918.

[abigkahuna]

This whole scenario is just Zombie Apocalyspe strange...I have literally been keeping an eye on this strange flu since late December, early Janaury when sporadic cases would pop up on Flu Trackers.

When the CCP began welding the doors shut in Wuhan, well that makes one sit up and take notice. I decided in mid January that there was no way I wanted to catch this disease. Wife and I fit the profiles of someone that should steer clear.

No panic. No real preparation...maybe some extra cans of soup and buying for more than a week than a few days..

One local bank closed because of an infected worker. The Wells Fargo inside our Raley’s store has closed due to Wuhan Bat Fears. That puts a crimp on our banking as we don’t do on line banking...

We work fairs and festivals for a living. We have lost all of our Spring events. Absolutely No Money coming in...So we are thankful for the Federal Helicopter money...

I don’t know what to make of all of this. I guess I would fall somewhere inbetween the “Flu Bros” and the Panic Attacks...As probably most of us, eh?

I don’t want to catch this. and it is a real pain. So far I don’t think there is an over-reaction with area lockdowns, (yet,) and I say this being one of the areas locked down.

Everyone stay safe and healthy and wash you hands...

[billyboy15]

BS, the only people DYING are those over 60 AND with multiple medical issues.

Let THEM self quarantine so the rest of the world can get on with their lives.

[billyboy15]

BS, the only people DYING are those over 60 AND with multiple medical issues.

Let THEM self quarantine so the rest of the world can get on with their lives.

[willk]

“So stupid that I needed an aspirin...
Just don’t take Ibuprofen”

Uhh..actually that is being walked back now.

[Professional]

The world was young enough to probably recall all of the yellow fever, scarlet fever of the past. Death back then was a fact of life. Humans back then also had a respect for God, today less and less do.