Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Admits He Was Wrong, Drastically Revises Model

DailyWire.com ^ | March 26th, 2020 | Amanda Prestigiacomo

[aMorePerfectUnion]

Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massive revision to his model on Wednesday.

Ferguson’s model projected 2.2 million dead people in the United States and 500,000 in the U.K. from COVID-19 if no action were taken to slow the virus and blunt its curve.

However, after just one day of ordered lockdowns in the U.K., Ferguson has changed his tune, revealing that far more people likely have the virus than his team figured. Now, the epidemiologist predicts, hospitals will be just fine taking on COVID-19 patients and estimates 20,000 or far fewer people will die from the virus itself or from its agitation of other ailments.

Ferguson thus dropped his prediction from 500,000 dead to 20,000.

[dfwgator]

The only prescription is MORE COWBELL!

[cweese]

"jstolzen and Travis McGullible are two of the most ignorant posters I have ever seen in my nearly two decades on FR."

Agreed. In addition, queen snowflake 'brookwood' referring to everyone who disagrees with her as assholes, jackasses and the like.

[indthkr]

Making mistakes with exponentials - bump for later...

[polymuser]

[mewzilla]

ROTF!

Or serve salmon mousse....

[SmokingJoe]

Modeling must not just include confirmed cases, and deaths attributed to the effects of the disease, but the rate of transmission/infection etc.

When your modeling is off by a massive TWENTY FIVE times, your modeling is total trash.
And that is assuming 20,000 die from coronavirus in the UK. There is imply no way that is going to happen. So his modeling could end up being off by a massive 200 times. What kind of nonsense is that?

When China says 82 k infected, that really means more like 820k+ infected, only 82k tested positive and XX died.

Your 820K figure comes from the same place Dr. Ferguson got his figures...plucked from thin air.

[con-surf-ative]

Don’t know about yours, but my IP provider has spiked the link. Shows error message so you can’t read the article. I’m shocked!

[gogeo]

VIRUS DENIER!!!

[mdmathis6]

Sorry...didn’t see the article...

[spacejunkie2001]

found it but can’t read the whole thing as there’s a paywall

https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-the-coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-11585088464

[gogeo]

But in part, it wasn’t that he says he was WRONG, he is now taking into account the social distancing that has been implemented.

No.

He said it's more widespread than believed, therefore less headroom to grow and less lethal than thought.

Off by a factor of 100.

[mdmathis6]

https://www.dailywire.com/news/epidemiologist-behind-highly-cited-coronavirus-model-admits-he-was-wrong-drastically-revises-model?utm_source=63red.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=63red

You might try going to simply dailywire.com and then root around and find it if your ISP will let you go to the main site.

[gogeo]

It wasn’t nothing but it sure as heck wasn’t worth destroying the economy and giving away our rights over

Perfectly stated.

[hal ogen]

This incompetent furgeson bum owes everyone a lot of money!

[Buckeye McFrog]

Yes, perfectly stated.

It is 4x-7x worse than the flu. That’s serious and significant, but not the Andromeda Strain.

[khelus]

yew, great deal like the hockey stick

[gogeo]

You can't lie about factories and work places reopening all over China.

Again, if you believe the numbers they give.

[ReaganGeneration2]

Only need to ask: Did 2.2 million die in China, Japan, Korea? Nope, off by 3 orders of magnitude.

The Left: BUT WE STILL MUST COLLAPSE THE WORLD ECONOMY

Also the Left:
“And we’ll fkn do it again”

[Nifty]

Whoops!

[Magnum44]

Dont worry, they will get the predictions right NEXT time. /s