Posted on 03/26/2020 10:52:24 AM PDT by aMorePerfectUnion
Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massive revision to his model on Wednesday.
Ferguson’s model projected 2.2 million dead people in the United States and 500,000 in the U.K. from COVID-19 if no action were taken to slow the virus and blunt its curve.
However, after just one day of ordered lockdowns in the U.K., Ferguson has changed his tune, revealing that far more people likely have the virus than his team figured. Now, the epidemiologist predicts, hospitals will be just fine taking on COVID-19 patients and estimates 20,000 or far fewer people will die from the virus itself or from its agitation of other ailments.
Ferguson thus dropped his prediction from 500,000 dead to 20,000.
Depends on whether or not you’ve got people more interested in covering their butts doing the sampling...
How could I forget RummyChick?!? The biggest panic pusher of them all. I still suspect she was on the payroll of the left. :).
You and me both my FRiend…
I was waiting for another FReeper to ask me who Emily Latella was.
I’d say the odds are pretty high. Nobody can be that dense.
Didn’t think it needed any clarification for most. FR skews 50+ for sure.
You’ll know it’s bad when they start playing “Don’t Fear the Reaper” at the daily Coronavirus Press Briefings.
With or without the Cowbell?
From the article:
“Not surprisingly, this testimony has received no attention in the US — I found it only in UK papers. Team Apocalypse is not interested.”
Team Apocalypse being our MSM, progressives and D’rats.
Hope Trump goes after Team Apocalypse leaders, with vengeance.
Hope someone makes a Team Apocalypse movie that shames the cretins.
Hope Team Apocalypse leaders pay dearly for what they’ve done to all of us.
I'm sure it was just a rounding error...
The ore Cowbell the better.
In my book you can’t ever have too much Cowbell.
At post 132 I presume somebody has already sent this to Trump?
While I understand that coronavirus DNA was mapped quickly after it was singled out, how can anybody make a model that is good enough to accurately estimate how many people a new virus is going to kill?
No one will die of old age this year, nor cancer, heart attack, etc, because all will be found with COVID or markers they had it and hadn’t known.
And loafers will be paid more to sit on their collective asses than they would be paid to work.
A liberal's wet dream.
Yup. Just like my great-uncle who left this Earth at age 94 and was ruled by New York State to be a tobacco victim because he chewed snuff.
She’s into investing
Yeah?
And Neil Ferguson and the corrupt media in America don't lie?I Ferguson was off by a massive TWENTY FIVE tines what he previously predicted would die in the UK, that is assuming his new totally made up figures of 20,000 comes to pass, which I don't see happening ever.
I would argue that the Chinese figures have been far better than anything we've got from Imperial College or the hysterical media.
Still looks like they lied about when it started, and how many cases they really had.
You can't lie about factories and work places reopening all over China. Nor can you lie about the number of people dying, which is about the only certain thing in all this hullabaloo.
The below graph represents the ratio of new deaths per day to total deaths. Many factors affect the line's progression. Too many for many here to want to understand, unfortunately. So I won't bother to relist them. Just consider the following:
Assuming the numbers of those who have died from the Coronavirus are accurate, while the UK does appear to be making headway, the US is still in a range where the number of dead will double every three days. By 15 April, there will be 100,000 dead in the US, unless we bring our line down.
A score of 25 = a 3 day doubling, 20 = 4 day doubling, 15 = 5 day doubling. Know we would ALL want to see the numbers come down, find a miracle cure, for the virus to mutate to a harmless sniffle, etc. But if one just looks at the numbers, we aren't there yet.
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