(1) The USA population is 330 million - not 350 million.
(2) The Doctor claims that 70 million could eventually be infected.
(3) Washington state is the most COVID-19 infected state in the USA. All people who have known exposure risk, recent travel risk, or obvious symptom risk, are being tested. Just 7% of those 17,105 tests were positive, and that rate has been declining for a week.
(4) For the purpose of discussion, let's say 7% of the USA is infected. 7% X 330 million is 23.1 million - NOT 70 million.
(5) The USA "Case Fatality Rate" is 1.6%. That number has been stable or declining for 10 days.
(6) For the purpose of discussion, let's say the Doctor's prediction of 70 million infections is correct. 70 million X 1.6% is 1.12 million. That is not "millions." It is barely 1 million.
I think the press is cherry-picking their “experts”.
Don’t piss on someone’s Panic Parade! How can we expand government to unheard of levels without a panic?
I favor a 2 week quarantine of cable news and the CDC.
We really have no idea of an accurate epidemiological profile on this virus because we have to reliable data. It only been days since we have had a reliable test to even base data off of.
What we do have is direct, media reported, evidence that there are a very large number of infected people who are asymptomatic (infected but exhibit no symptoms of illness) or who have very mild symptoms that they assume as cold or flu and discount as covid19 because they expect worse.
These are people who are being blamed for much of the spread of the virus
Amazingly, this fact is being reported in alarmist articles saying the the virus is the new Black Death.
So we have large numbers of infected people with either no symptoms or such mild symptoms they discount them, infecting a narrower demographic of typically older people with serious pre existing conditions and high risk grouping that make them vulnerable to serious complications from the virus
The facts of the various narratives being thrown around simply do not comport with the facts on the ground.
Similarly, the fact that the virus has been circulating virtually unchecked in the Washington area since December with out generating a wide spread epidemic is also inconsistent with the Black Death profile.
That the virus is highly contagious is beyond dispute so we should be seeing a huge, wide spread outbreak in Washington after going on four months of unchecked spread- but yet we are not. No wide spread serious epidemic, no overwhelming of local hospitals and no shortage of ventilators
Exponential viral growth laws are not miraculously suspended in Washington and the same “ yeah, nothing yet but its exponential so just wait two weeks” dynamic that is driving ( legitimate) concern also applies just as validly to Washington - and we are a generally well documented 12+ weeks into the development of the Washington infection cluster island.
This on the ground reality disputes this virology gurus basic assumed epidemiological profile that she is working from to base her conclusions
We are all working on very partial information to make decisions which is a bad place be when those decisions govern the lives and health if an entire nation. Therefore, mitigation of downside risk and an abundance of caution has to be a major factor driving decision making process.
And there us always a potential chance the virus mutates into a more virulent and deadly form. The more wide spread the epidemic, the more opportunity for such a random mutation so current measures are probably necessary primarily to mitigate an unlikely but potentially catastrophic down side risk.
Its just that there are very significant inconsistencies on what we are seeing on the ground and what we are being told by media
She may be including illegals that aren’t regularly counted—so figure may be more accurate.
70 million is obviously a conservative estimate, whether because she thinks a vaccine will be quick, the weather will give an extended respite, she’s counting on masssive sustained social distancing or whatever.
She is clearly referring to the 70 million as an initial wave, with possible subsequent waves getting it into the millions. (The UK for example is projecting a worst case of 80% infection.)
I think we’ll have effective treatments before then, but there is nothing wrong with her math. No need for the patronizing concern.
The doctor is a political-agenda-advancing quack. Shut up.
You have made some serious assumption errors.
Eventually virtually everybody will be infected until herd immunity takes over, achieved by survival or vaccination.
Without containment efforts to slow that down, it would all happen at once, overwhelming our HCS, like in Italy and Wuhan.
You misstated the CFR. The number you gave is the Deaths-to-Cases Ratio which includes unresolved cases. The CFR is currently (150 dead)/(150 dead + 106 recovered) or 59% at this time. Eventually that 59% and that 1.6% will converge, when enough cases have resolved, but we don’t know what that final number will be, yet. It might even be less than 1.6% if the fantasy that there is some large pool of asymptomatic, noncontagious infected out there turns out not to be a fantasy after all. However, the number is likely to increase, not decrease, as cases resolve, and you know that, but continue to misrepresent the statistics.
You misstated the rate of positives. It’s 11%, more than 50% higher than you claim, as just reported in the President’s press conference. But we don’t have comprehensive testing at this time, so the real rate isn’t truly known.
We are still very much on the upslope of this thing, and it is the mitigation efforts you FluBros are whining about that are keeping the death toll as low as it is.
Surely when this is over you guys that have complained and denied all along will pretend you were right and all this was unnecessary, but the rest of us know the truth. Unless it gets out of hand after all, then you guys will be stabbing and trampling each other to get TP.
And your conviction that 1.12 million isn’t “millions” and therefore an acceptable casualty count is disturbing.
2009 H1N1 deaths in the U.S. 12,469. (via CNN)
https://www.cnn.com/2013/08/23/health/h1n1-u-s-fast-facts/index.html
It was business as usual in 2009 and the deadly virus killed over 12,000 Americans. The good doctor now wants us to believe that with all the steps currently being taken, we will have 70 million fatalities.
I thought you had to take math to be a physician.
Lyrics:
You can't take three from two
Two is less than three
So you look at the four in the tens place
Now that's really four tens
So you make it three tens
Regroup, and you change a ten to ten ones
And you add 'em to the two and get twelve
And you take away three, that's nine
Is that clear?
Now instead of four in the tens place
You've got three
Cause you added one
That is to say, ten, to the two
But you can't take seven from three
So you look in the hundreds place
From the three you then use one
To make ten ones
(And you know why four plus minus one
Plus ten is fourteen minus one?
Cause addition is commutative, right!)
And so you've got thirteen tens
And you take away seven
And that leaves five
Well, six actually
But the idea is the important thing!
Now go back to the hundreds place
You're left with two
And you take away one from two
And that leaves . . .?
Everybody get one?
Not bad for the first day!
Hooray for New Math
New-hoo-hoo Math
It won't do you a bit of good to review Math
It's so simple
So very simple
That only a child can do it!
Now, that actually is not the answer that I had in mind, because the
Book that I got this problem out of wants you to do it in base
Eight. But don't panic! Base eight is just like base ten really -
If you're missing two fingers! Shall we have a go at it?
Hang on
You can't take three from two
Two is less than three
So you look at the four in the eights place
Now that's really four eights
So you make it three eights
Regroup, and you change an eight to eight ones
And you add 'em to the two
And you get one-two base eight
Which is ten base ten
And you take away three, that's seven
Ok?
Now instead of four in the eights place
You've got three
Cause you added one
That is to say, eight, to the two
But you can't take seven from three
So you look at the sixty-fours
Sixty-four? "How did sixty-four get into it?" I hear you cry!
Well, sixty-four is eight squared, don't you see? (Well, ya ask a
Silly question, ya get a silly answer!)
From the three, you then use one
To make eight ones
You add those ones to the three
And you get one-three base eight
Or, in other words
In base ten you have eleven
And you take away seven
And seven from eleven is four!
Now go back to the sixty-fours
You're left with two
And you take away one from two
And that leaves . . .?
Now, let's not always see the same hands!
One, that's right
Whoever got one can stay after the show and clean the erasers
Hooray for New Math
New-hoo-hoo Math!
It won't do you a bit of good to review Math
It's so simple
So very simple
That only a child can do it!
Come back tomorrow night; we're gonna do fractions!
Y'know, I've often thought I'd like to write a mathematics textbook
someday because I have a title that I know will sell a million
copies; I'm gonna call it "Tropic of Calculus"
It’s not math. It’s inaccurate third grade arithmetic.
In 2017, 45 million Americans WERE infected. 959,000 were hospitalized and 61,099 deaths.......We survived without a peep from the govt. or the MSM.......
If I recall correctly, 60 Million Americans caught the Swine Flu and 1250 died back in 2009 / 2010.
Just doing the Math.
Please. If that old malaria drug gets approved for treatment in the next couple of weeks, the body count might not even surpass 10,000, assuming it works consistently. Hospitals not being slammed, leaving the ICU in days instead of weeks, etc.
“CDC Advisor”. That’s a way to scare people into thinking this is an actual CDC prediction. Not some liberal left-wing professor at some college who sometimes sends her thoughts to the CDC to be filed away with all the other thoughts the CDC apparently has no method of processing.
I go back to the cruise ship. Old people, tight spaces, nobody knew what they were facing, common A/C, little treatment.
3800 people on board, 710 test positive, 300 have symptoms, 7 dead, 14 still critical, meaning at most 21 will die.
21/3800 = 0.55%, absolute worst case.
Which would be 1.8 million dead if the entire united states was a tightly packed cruise ship with no treatment.
Best case, 7/3800, gives us 600,000 dead.
And that’s “best case” of the worst situation, cruise ship.
I would be shocked if we hit 100,000 dead. I’ll be shocked it Italy hits 100,000 dead.
The death rate is bad but it's not the problem. The problem is that 20% of those who get it will require hospitalization. 15% will need oxygen and 5% will need icu treatment.
When 5% are critically ill JUST the icu beds we would need are 1,150,000. There are not NEAR that number of ICU beds in the USA. There are less than 1 million hospital beds of all types in the whole usa...and those are already at 60% to 70% capacity at any one time.
When this happens the system is overwhelmed and the CV death rate goes up to around 8-10%. Not to mention the lack of care for other diseases, elective surgeries, etc etc
That 1.12 million dying is amongst the 20 percent of the covid people needing to be hospitalized of that 70 million you surmised or 14 million needing to be hospitalized. Currently 80 percent seem to be able to recover at home but 20 percent need some type of hospitalization.
Our hospital systems cannot withstand 14 million people needing to be hospitalized even it the 14 million were spread out over time. That is covid hospitalizations along with strokes, major traumas, cancer related crises (like infections 7-14 days after chemo, MI’s, diabetic ketoacidosis crises, sickle cell crises, ect. Get the picture? That is why they are all so spooked.
Do the math.
