IMHO, you should update your formula to include data from the following charts:
The above charts are contained in the following link:
Posted on 03/19/2020 7:40:51 AM PDT by zeestephen
Dr. Kathleen Neuzil, director of the Center for Vaccine Development at the University of Maryland’s School of Medicine..."We have 350 million people in the United States, and you do the math," she said on CNBC’s Squawk Box. If 70 million people are eventually infected with this virus and again if there are multiple waves of this virus, then you can do the math and then you can get there."
(Excerpt) Read more at cnbc.com ...
Not everyone would get it at once. We now have treatments that look promising. On the diamond princess in the worst conditions only 20% got it. Drama has take. over
Where do you think it lurks between flu seasons?
“Not everyone would get it at once. We now have treatments that look promising. On the diamond princess in the worst conditions only 20% got it. Drama has take. over”
That was not the scenario you presented. Yes, we now have what look to be very promising treatments (yay!) but we didn’t have those when the containment efforts were initiated, and they are not out the door quite yet. And though not everyone would get it at once, that wouldn’t help the people that got it after the HCS crashed, which it would pretty quickly since this virus spreads quickly and we often have barely enough hospital beds and ICU beds for a rough flu season. The difference that would make is a rounding error.
The DP was not a true petri dish. The passengers were chunked up into different parts of the ship with different AC zones and separate cabins, etc. They had masks and other mitigating items. They had the constant attention of medical people. None of that would be true in the open world for the vast majority of people.
IMHO, you should update your formula to include data from the following charts:
The above charts are contained in the following link:
I think that is certainly a good sign, although they are still probably just testing symptomatic people, and people who interacted with known positives.
Which means the numbers should be higher than the general population.
Until we can do some random samples, we won’t obviously know what the current general population rate is.
UK is very very close to a test that can determine antibodies, which would show who already HAD the disease. That is the test that will get us out of quarantine.
Flu rate is based upon an estimated number of flu infections, not an actual or diagnosed number.
Chinese Bat Soup flu rate is based upon actual diagnosed cases, which is a much smaller number, a smaller pool.
Makes a huge difference when you're talking about the denominator in ratios.
Those who quote statistics should at least understand what's being measured.
So there was no “math error” you just disagreed with my input sources. All of which came from the web. As you say those who “correct” others should have their ducks ina row.
Are you one of these people who think it’s no worse than the seasonal flu? If so I understand there are some really good rates on hotels in Lombardy.
OK - I misunderstood what you claimed, and I apologize.
However, CDC and Encyclopedia Britannica both say CFR is the “TOTAL” number of dead - divided by - “TOTAL” number of infections.
You say CFR is: Total number of dead - divided by - Total dead + Total recovered.
I can send you a half dozen published medical links that say USA COVID-19 CFR is around 1.5%.
Can you show me even one link - except for your own claims - that says USA COVID-19 CFR is around 59%?
Of course not.
More help from the CDC:
“The concept behind the case-fatality rate and the death-to-case ratio is similar, but the formulations are different.”
“The deaths included in the numerator of the death-to-case ratio are not restricted to the new cases in the denominator; in fact, for many diseases, the deaths are among persons whose onset of disease was years earlier.”
“In contrast, in the case-fatality rate, the deaths included in the numerator are restricted to the cases in the denominator.”
Bottom Line...
You have brazenly misstated the medical definition of BOTH metrics.
3.3 million people dead? That’s a whole state! That’s a lot of people!
But I don’t think it’ll get that bad.
it’s. lot of people but that is worst case scenario they everyone in the country gets the illness and the death rate does. of continue to drop. i’m tired of hearing how millions will die in this country when math says otherwise
Well to be fair, I don’t think even the ridiculous 50ish% infection rate spouted by the CDC even comes down to 3.3 million deaths.
I think the numbers and data they fed the models the cdc is using, are bogus... .and they know it.
The Diamond Princess had a 20% infection rate and how much worse more worse case scenario could you of a perfect could you try to create. An enclosed petri dish.
So wherever they are getting 50+plus infection rates... those models simply cant be right.
I think this is what they used to manipulate well meaning doctors into duping Trump who TRUSTS them.
I think Trump is starting to see this which is why we are seeing less of Fauci.
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