Posted on 03/19/2020 7:40:51 AM PDT by zeestephen
Dr. Kathleen Neuzil, director of the Center for Vaccine Development at the University of Maryland’s School of Medicine..."We have 350 million people in the United States, and you do the math," she said on CNBC’s Squawk Box. If 70 million people are eventually infected with this virus and again if there are multiple waves of this virus, then you can do the math and then you can get there."
(Excerpt) Read more at cnbc.com ...
I read this flu hits the wall at 80 degrees. It was 77 in Atlanta today.
But it’s always 65 indoors in summer when you get south of the Mason-Dixon line....
And?
“Case fatality rate is calculated by dividing the number of deaths from a specified disease over a defined period of time by the number of individuals diagnosed with the disease during that time.”
For a historical data set. It is meaningless to include the unresolved cases. That’s why the Deaths-to-Cases Ratio exists.
From Wikipedia:
“A CFR can only be considered final when all the cases have been resolved (either died or recovered).”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case_fatality_rate
Incidentally, the Wikipedia article actually lists the Britannica definition you provided among its citations. I’m sure if some epidemiologist looked at the Wikipedia article and saw a problem he’d submit a correction. Yet it remains the same since the last time we had this debate. Certainly it could be that the whole epidemiological world is wrong and you are right, but I doubt it.
65<80
“The CFR is still pretty unknown for the chinese virus, though. Mass testing is the only way to know.”
I agree that mass testing would set a pretty solid marker. The testing that is going on in SK is pretty thorough and more than adequate for statistics we can use. When you do a poll of 500 or 600 or 1000 random people you get certainties in the 90s. When you “poll” 200,000 people it’s a lot more precise.
Not a perfect analogy, but I think it makes the point.
The one study I saw suggested that heat and humidity did have a measurable effect, but the numbers were such that it had to be pretty hot and wet to drop the R0 to the point where we’d have equilibrium without other measures being necessary. Still, every little bit helps.
Your calculations are in error.
Show me the error don’t just say it
“The case-fatality rate is the proportion of persons with a particular condition (cases) who die from that condition. It is a measure of the severity of the condition.”
The formula is: “Number of cause-specific deaths among the incident cases - divided by - Total number of incident cases.”
In other words, “recovered cases” is an extraneous subset of the “total number of incident cases.”
Still hoping this helps...
https://www.cdc.gov/csels/dsepd/ss1978/lesson3/section3.html
Who is claiming that the current COVID-19 CFR is final?
Not me. Not ever.
I repeat - the CFR is the most useful metric we have in a medically dynamic event.
Your “recovered cases” death-to-case ratio is completely meaningless in a dynamic event.
In a historical context. Past tense. All cases are resolved. Read more carefully. The denominator is always a closed interval. The numerator can be open, but the diagnosis still has to be within that closed interval.
It’s simple. Stop being obtuse.
except the death rate in S Korea is more like 1%. Not all americans will get this and with a 1% death rate even if all 330 million of us got ill the number of deaths would barely. e in the millions. The drama is huge.....
Thus the calls for social distancing.
This is the SLOWEST virus to spread on record.
The current flu stain originated about the same time and has already killed tens of thousands in the US alone.
This virus is nothing but gaslighting by the communism to shutdown and take over this country. The sheeple are willing accomplices.
“Your “recovered cases” death-to-case ratio is completely meaningless in a dynamic event.”
What are you even saying? Try it again. Recovered cases are not a part of the DCR calculation.
The number you are presenting as CFR is the DCR. It will eventually converge with the CFR at some point when the vast majority of cases have resolved. The instantaneous CFR is currently much higher.
Right now you’re using it to argue that the fatality rate is lower than it is by assuming all unresolved cases will resolve favorably, which you know to be false. You are deliberately misrepresenting the facts to further your “it’s just the flu” complacent narrative. That is called lying.
Shall we get the Britannica definition of that word?
However, this is a silly waste of time. I will simply point out that you are misusing the term going forward and you can do what ever you like.
“even if all 330 million of us got ill the number of deaths would barely. e in the millions. The drama is huge.....”
Barely in the millions.
Imagine the drama of 3.3 million dead.
But in your scenario - the one we are all supposed to be on a war footing to prevent - it wouldn’t be 1%. The HCS would collapse and we’d be getting the 1 in 12 dead, like Italy. That would be 40 million. And tack on a couple percent more due to there being no hospital beds open for regular needs.
So call it 45 million. I rounded down.
No drama.
“he current flu stain originated about the same time and has already killed tens of thousands in the US alone.”
The current flu strain had months of head start and millions of hosts to begin with.
The Wuhanic plague started later with just one.
The Wuhanic Plague spreads much, much faster.
We can’t contain the flu. Hence, no effort at containment, only mitigation. We can gain time by containing the Wuhanic Plague, even though those efforts won’t ultimately succeed.
“The current flu strain had months of head start and millions of hosts to begin with.”
No, it did not. You are claiming the current flu strain simultaneously was created in millions of hosts. That is idiocy to think that.
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