Call me overly hopeful, berate me for giving false hope, but that's what I see in the data... 2 weeks of acceleration, several days of plateau, and then a decline. Prayers up that I'm close!!
(Also, if you can figure out how to post the bar graphs from that webpage, I'd be grateful... the usual IMG SRC isn't working for me, and I'd appreciate the visual backup to my data!!)
Be careful of confirmation bias.
If you want the same results as China you have to do the same things as China. First is draconian lock down, tracking and quarantine. Only Taiwan, S. Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong and to a lesser degree Japan have done this as far as I know.
None of the rest of us have yet so don’t get your hopes up.
In the case of China, lying about your data probably helps too.
I think you are right.
Dude, I love it!
I am an oldish engineer. I am a numbers guy. It doesn’t matter how I feel about it, what matters is the numbers. I have been watching them and doing estimates based on the numbers, daily. I believe you are correct. I am not not sure if there range is correct for the beginning of the inflection point of the curve (because it is hard to estimate) but I believe your analysis is sound.
Keep it up. I do not post because people can’t seem to understand that you can respect the disease but it does not warrant the panic that is see.
Many responses to possibilities of interstates being shutdown. You heard it here first.
Irrelevant whether they do or not. The real question is what signals a green light to resume normalcy.
Flattening the curve prevents hospitals from being overwhelmed, but doesn’t return us to normalcy.
The country stays shutdown until they have a vaccine, and please dont use any fake Chinese numbers or a decling curve in Italian numbers as a green light. Trumps reelection campaign will focus on the fewest deaths as compared to rest of world and any false it’s all clear signal will cost him the election. Lives over the market.
We are at war with China. They fired the first shot(bio).
Helicopter money for all until green light.
Fed buys the SPY.
The only study I would trust at this point is S. Korea. I don’t trust Chinese and Iranian reporting and for the others we don’t know the denominator due to inadequate testing. But for Italy, a plateau of 3500/ day is nothing to celebrate.
My gut feeling is that in 2 weeks we will view this whole episode like we do a Cat 5 hurricane that veers north and avoids the coast.
I think most of it is explained by when the affected countries totally locked down their societies....that’s when it kind of levels out.
That’s only for countries that out in harsh social distancing and quarantine policies
the spread of covid-19 has been via normal social habits.
infecting people as they go thru their normal day
if nothing is done, with no vaccine available, there would be nothing to stop the spread.
which is why we’ve been told to self quarantine and reduce social interactions.
the impact of those measures WILL NOT be felt for 7+ days.
according to my analysis, i see 25-35k infected within the next 7 days
In general, the arcs are real - though you should probably throw out Iran, as they appear to intermittently report only one or another statistic for repeated days.
So, really you have South Korea, and China so far.
Here’s to hope.
You simply can't trust the Chinese "numbers." Two doctors claimed they were understated by between 5x and 10x, and they "disappeared." WeChat accounts deleted and never heard from again.
I thought I saw a CDC graph showing that new cases are slowing down.
Hope you are right - many will slam you for showing hope that all the panic is insane - they caused and fanned the flames of it and it would be a big slice of crow pie to eat after all the damage the panic has caused - far more than the virus running rampant ever could have.