Posted on 03/18/2020 8:26:33 PM PDT by Teacher317
Just posted this on another thread, and I think that it might deserve its own. It's potentially great news, and most of us are really desperate for that right about now...
Looking at the graphs of New Cases Reported in China, Italy, Iran, South Korea, France, and Spain, they are relatively consistent. Some cases get reported, and then a sudden rise in cases reported lasts for 13-17 days, then they hit a plateau for 3-4 days, then they begin to decline.
China's rise lasted for 25 days, but that's easily explained by the fact that they were first, that they have such a massive population and density (and not the best health care system... I've been in Chinese hospitals before... I literally walked out of one, with an open wound filled with glass from a car accident), and that Chinese New Year involves a HUGE amount of travel within China for almost all Chinese for up to two weeks. Their jump in reported cases didn't begin until JAN 22, when people were already traveling for the holiday.
South Korea's accelerated rise began on FEB 19 (27 new cases, then 53, 98, and 227, etc), and topped out on MAR 3 (at 851... after 13 days of rising... then 400 on MAR 4, then 660, 309, 448, 272, 165 on MAR 9...). Since Mar 10, they've had more completed recoveries reported than new cases reported!!!
Same with Iran... FEB 26 (44, then 106, 143, 205...), peaking on MAR 14 (after 17 days) at 1365, then 1209 and 1053...
Italy, France, and Spain are all right at the 2-week mark after the rise began, so there's not a plateau started yet... but a few more days will tell even more clearly. Italy's last 4 days were 3500, 3600, 3200, and 3500... seems like a plateau to me... hopefully maybe please!!!
Our accelerated rise began after MAR 7-9 (98, 116, 106... then 163, 290, 307, 396). If we follow the path of the other bell curves, where the rise only lasts for 13-17 days, then our plateau should begin this weekend, and the decline should begin next week.
On the other side, we are getting a zillion testing kits put out soon, so we will also likely see a spike in reported numbers, as all of those who have had no symptoms suddenly get added to the pile, so I may get to look like a total loon after all. :/
On a side note, where I work part-time today, we had a group of Bay Area Chinese pop in, most with masks on, visiting Reno to escape quarantine. A bit upsetting at their lack of responsibility to be potentially spreading Chinese Coronavirus. Were they infected? Where they individually supposed to be under self-quarantine? Do they know? And, from my perspective, they simply did not care. Not great acts of citizenship, presuming they are citizens.
Not at all. Starting MAR 2, our numbers of newly reported cases are:
25, 24, 34, 63, 98, 116, 106, 163, 290, 307, 396, 550, 696, 737, 983, 1748, and 2846 for today...
that's a pretty consistent run of about +25-35% per day for the last 11 days...
actually, it's 35%, 44%, 6%, 23%, 28%, 21%, 6%, 44%, and 39% .
That's not a spike today, that's a constant rise... for 11 days... where most of the other major victim nations have had that kind of rise for 13-17 days... again, showing we might be near a plateau... maybe... could be...
as all of those who have had no symptoms suddenly get added to the pile
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Why will people with no symptoms be tested? Will there be so many tests and will they be so convenient that everyone will take one?
Oh my.....
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
I'm only using the New Cases Reported gray bar graphs
It’s not looking good in NYC, they may need to be locked down for a month.
see post 26
WA DOH was at 1012 yesterday, so 175 new today. King County had a drop of 7. 78 new reported by counties, 175 “unassigned” to a county.
Part of their analysis is the “unassigned”. Hard to reconcile those with the new cases each county reports.
And they aren’t showing increase/decrease from day prior. I’m running a daily spreadsheet. New cases are +/- a few from leveling off.
As noted elsewhere, we’ll likely see a rise once test kits are widely used.
You are looking at new cases since 00:00 GMT (about 3 hours and 45 minutes ago) For the prior 24 hours, WA had 175 new cases and 12 new deaths.
At the top of the table, you can click on “Now” or “Yesterday”.
That does not surprise me with Chinese folks.... and I consider myself a Sinophile... I have done business there and still do business with a few Chinese friends from those days... their regard for any life other than their own is shockingly small most of the time, especially when it is large numbers of lives-not-including-theirs.
Italy had 4207 today.
Look at the logarithmic plots for total cases and deaths. Straight lines mean an exponential growth. When the lines curve to right, the growth rate is slowing, or to a slower growth exponential. When they curve to left, the growth rate is increasing along a faster (steeper) exponential.
With increased testing in the US, we'll see faster growth. We will be over 10,000 tomorrow.
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How many die each day?
How many die of the common flu?
How many are killed...by murderers?
Your post is not relevant.
And not very smart.
We know there’s going to be a spike in the number of cases as more testing capacity comes online, because just as in China they cases are out there but no way to know until the people are tested.
Ten K deaths???..or just positive tests?
I’d imagine the gay bar graph is not very good.....
Makes no sense.
I’ve been watching King County as well. Keep us posted with your data.
"When you're black and on fire, everybody gets out of your way."
= = =Richard Pryor to Johnny Carson
All of my prognostications come from just the New Cases Reported (by day), the gray bar graphs.
Italy certainly has an older population (25% over 65, second only to Japan's 27%), so the higher mortality rate is not surprising... but again, I'm just looking at New Cases Reported.
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