Posted on 03/18/2020 8:26:33 PM PDT by Teacher317
Just posted this on another thread, and I think that it might deserve its own. It's potentially great news, and most of us are really desperate for that right about now...
Looking at the graphs of New Cases Reported in China, Italy, Iran, South Korea, France, and Spain, they are relatively consistent. Some cases get reported, and then a sudden rise in cases reported lasts for 13-17 days, then they hit a plateau for 3-4 days, then they begin to decline.
China's rise lasted for 25 days, but that's easily explained by the fact that they were first, that they have such a massive population and density (and not the best health care system... I've been in Chinese hospitals before... I literally walked out of one, with an open wound filled with glass from a car accident), and that Chinese New Year involves a HUGE amount of travel within China for almost all Chinese for up to two weeks. Their jump in reported cases didn't begin until JAN 22, when people were already traveling for the holiday.
South Korea's accelerated rise began on FEB 19 (27 new cases, then 53, 98, and 227, etc), and topped out on MAR 3 (at 851... after 13 days of rising... then 400 on MAR 4, then 660, 309, 448, 272, 165 on MAR 9...). Since Mar 10, they've had more completed recoveries reported than new cases reported!!!
Same with Iran... FEB 26 (44, then 106, 143, 205...), peaking on MAR 14 (after 17 days) at 1365, then 1209 and 1053...
Italy, France, and Spain are all right at the 2-week mark after the rise began, so there's not a plateau started yet... but a few more days will tell even more clearly. Italy's last 4 days were 3500, 3600, 3200, and 3500... seems like a plateau to me... hopefully maybe please!!!
Our accelerated rise began after MAR 7-9 (98, 116, 106... then 163, 290, 307, 396). If we follow the path of the other bell curves, where the rise only lasts for 13-17 days, then our plateau should begin this weekend, and the decline should begin next week.
On the other side, we are getting a zillion testing kits put out soon, so we will also likely see a spike in reported numbers, as all of those who have had no symptoms suddenly get added to the pile, so I may get to look like a total loon after all. :/
So what happens in the summer months when the Southern Hemisphere gets cooler?
I'm not guessing at that. The cumulative number of cases follows a logistics curve. Early growth is exponential but then inflects and tops out. It's plain to see after the fact on a linear axis. On the logarithmic axis, the straight line of exponential grow will start bending to the right.
My point was, do we know if the rest home had a preponderance of Chinese? (Like Miami would have Latins).
“Ah knowed a friend whose best cousin works in the Disease Bacterialogical Control Room Central Command Emergency Agency as an 11th-level Super Bug Killer Scientist with a PH Masters in Disease Broadcasting. And they said, ‘Hang on to your horse hats, kids, there’s agonna be a soonommy of dead folks hittin’ the emergency rooms toot-sweet in the next week or so.’ They said they gots body bags stacked three stories high and forklifts standin’ by to feed ‘em into the bonfires on account they can’t bury ‘em fast enough before Wave 2 hits!”
I worked at the CDC for seven years as a Federal Contractor.
Fully 80% of us worked on projects unrelated to Infectious Diseases, and those that did, would neither have the ability to shut down interstates, nor information thereof.
I believe your son’s friend said what he said, but he’s just full of shit.
I call bullshit.
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