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New York state coronavirus cases soar to about 1,700, hospitalizing 19%
cnbc ^ | MAR 17 2020 | Berkeley Lovelac e Jr. Noah Higgins-Dunn

Posted on 03/17/2020 8:06:56 PM PDT by RomanSoldier19

New York officials say the state’s coronavirus total has jumped to 1,700, with at least 19% hospitalized. They said the number of cases will continue to rise as the state receives more test results. New York has 53,000 hospital beds and 3,000 ICU beds, far short of what state health officials are predicting will be needed, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said.

(Excerpt) Read more at cnbc.com ...


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KEYWORDS: 3000bedsnotgood; braking; communityspread; coronavirus; covid19; hysteria; newyork; romansoldier19; sarscov2
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To: Crucial

So what did Cuomo and DeBlasio do wrong? I don’t think it’s this bad anywhere else.


1) didn’t treat it seriously, until
2) a guy caught it who commuted on the MetroNorth commuter lines, to Synagogue, and through Grand Central Station and the crowds outside for a week or so, and
3) had a very high population density.


221 posted on 03/18/2020 10:03:55 AM PDT by lepton ("It is useless to attempt to reason a man out of a thing he was never reasoned into"--Jonathan Swift)
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To: LibWhacker

It’s at 19% because they are mostly testing sick people including the very sick who were already hospitalized and suspected of having it.


222 posted on 03/18/2020 10:04:44 AM PDT by TBall
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To: CaptainK

But there has to be thousands of infected people who are not included in that number because it’s been nearly impossible to get tested in NYS for the past month.
Once testing becomes more available all these high percentages will go down


Sure. To half is fairly easy to accept. *10, possible, but much less so. *100 unknown, probably not. *1000, no way.

It’s been hard to get tested if you don’t have the symptoms, and you haven’t come into contact with a known case or area. Things are undoubtedly more wild now, but nationally (mostly NYC and Washington State), only 40% of identified cases were community-spread as of last Monday, so a large multiplier is likely to be only recent.


223 posted on 03/18/2020 10:35:07 AM PDT by lepton ("It is useless to attempt to reason a man out of a thing he was never reasoned into"--Jonathan Swift)
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To: SecAmndmt

Today I heard that about half of head colds are corona virus, and half are rhinovirus.


about 20/80...and a different type of coronavirus.


224 posted on 03/18/2020 10:37:35 AM PDT by lepton ("It is useless to attempt to reason a man out of a thing he was never reasoned into"--Jonathan Swift)
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To: ifinnegan

They’ve all gotten millions of dollars over more than a decade to prepare for such a contingency.


They have.

They’ve also been paid to close hospitals and medical schools to train fewer doctors (one of two major Hillary-care initiatives, made even more prevalent with the ACA).


225 posted on 03/18/2020 10:40:19 AM PDT by lepton ("It is useless to attempt to reason a man out of a thing he was never reasoned into"--Jonathan Swift)
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To: lepton

I work in an industry where I deal, face to face, with Chinese clients every day. 2 1/2 weeks ago I believed I showed many of the symptoms and called the state hotline to see if I could get tested. I was told no, since my symptoms were mild. Since then 2 other co worker have the same symptoms that I do. No testing for them either.


226 posted on 03/18/2020 10:44:05 AM PDT by CaptainK ('No collusion, no obstruction, he's a leaker')
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To: neverevergiveup

That should be done. Sort of like ‘polling’ the population.


Cohort studies to get the baseline, and random sampling to get the extrapolations right.

This has been unfolding so fast and the sick take so relatively long to recover that little solid data has been available. Some of the attempts so far were in the sample size of 12 to 30 infected range. If we could trust China’s figures, we are looking at about 4-5% fatalities. That said, China still has about 8k listed as still sick despite few new cases within the past 3 weeks, and the number dying in these end cases has been over the 4.0%.

For the rest of the world, we’re still in the early expansion range where fatalities are overstated because it takes longer to recover than to die. It’s been hanging in there at an illusory 30-35% for more than a week.

In the US we’ve begun to move from the first death lag phase where people are sick, but haven’t begun to die yet (WA nursing home excepted), where the fatality rate is understated, into the recovery-lag phase, where the fatality rate is greatly over-stated.

South Korea has been testing everyone, so their baseline numbers will likely be pretty close at the end. Currently they are running about a 5.5% fatality rate for resolved cases, with only 18.3% resolved.

Because of these lags, anything less than cohort studies is going to be off, especially for a while.


227 posted on 03/18/2020 10:56:10 AM PDT by lepton ("It is useless to attempt to reason a man out of a thing he was never reasoned into"--Jonathan Swift)
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To: Freee-dame

New York City has several of the largest areas in the USA where ethnic Chinese live. This probably explains the early rise in the numbers of infected. How many of them had people come there from China since December?


The main cause of the NYC/New Rochelle outbreak appears to have been one Jewish guy who caught it and happens to commute on MetroNorth and work across the street from Grand Central Station. I forget where they thought he caught it.

This is WAAAY outside one little ethnic group.


228 posted on 03/18/2020 11:05:25 AM PDT by lepton ("It is useless to attempt to reason a man out of a thing he was never reasoned into"--Jonathan Swift)
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To: 9YearLurker

They didn’t use this test. Listening to the press conference now, it sounds like they may be moving to a self-swab test, which would be great.


There are signs that the way to go would be poop-tests. The throat and nose tests often don’t detect cases, but at least some studies show near 100% detection rate from infected from stool samples.


229 posted on 03/18/2020 11:10:43 AM PDT by lepton ("It is useless to attempt to reason a man out of a thing he was never reasoned into"--Jonathan Swift)
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To: SoCal Pubbie

Even on the cooped up cruise ship there was nothing close to full infection or super high mortality.


They were quarantined before anyone on the ship was showing symptoms, and the first victim wasn’t likely contagious for most of his time on the ship and had himself left the ship before showing symptoms. The quarantine was not perfect - as evidenced by the infection rate - but it was physical isolation for the vast majority, with limited but existent cross ventilation. The crew was also attempting to address the outbreak in the manner that they regularly successfully address outbreaks of the flu and other shipboard diseases.

About 60% of those infected are reported as not recovered yet, even all this time later.

You certainly do have a point, but it is rather more limited than it might appear at first glance.

It’ll be an interesting study, especially considering that as noted above the ship procedures were set up to deal with outbreaks of various diseases and are generally successful. It could be a lot of infection, or it could be surprisingly little when considering the actual conditions and events.


230 posted on 03/18/2020 11:23:52 AM PDT by lepton ("It is useless to attempt to reason a man out of a thing he was never reasoned into"--Jonathan Swift)
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To: Skywise

I still interpret that as states shouldn’t wait for the federal governments ventilators to arrive if they need them now but should source their own if they can get it until the fed supply chain is setup.


Did I disagree? I’ll have to work on the wording.

Some STATES wildly misinterpreted pretty clear language.


231 posted on 03/18/2020 11:26:30 AM PDT by lepton ("It is useless to attempt to reason a man out of a thing he was never reasoned into"--Jonathan Swift)
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To: lepton

Nah - Some MEDIA outlets misinterpreted it.


232 posted on 03/18/2020 11:28:35 AM PDT by Skywise
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To: lepton

Interesting. Of course those have long been sent through the mail for other stuff.


233 posted on 03/18/2020 11:35:27 AM PDT by 9YearLurker
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To: CaptainK

I work in an industry where I deal, face to face, with Chinese clients every day. 2 1/2 weeks ago I believed I showed many of the symptoms and called the state hotline to see if I could get tested. I was told no, since my symptoms were mild. Since then 2 other co worker have the same symptoms that I do. No testing for them either.


There were two wide outbreaks of a nasty respiratory flu variety, around Thanksgiving into early December, and in mid-January, that were not this Coronavirus, but which many on FR and elsewhere have described as having similar symptoms. The first vaccine distribution apparently was a miss for the varieties of flu which ended up actually being active in the US.

2.5 weeks ago could well be this disease, or it could be the that flu. Overall, still probably the flu, but of course your individual circumstances may go in the face of that. It’ll be good when they get the serum tests working. That checks for antibodies to see if you’ve ever had it.


234 posted on 03/18/2020 11:36:39 AM PDT by lepton ("It is useless to attempt to reason a man out of a thing he was never reasoned into"--Jonathan Swift)
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To: lepton

I’ve had the flu. It wasn’t the flu.


235 posted on 03/18/2020 11:42:09 AM PDT by CaptainK ('No collusion, no obstruction, he's a leaker')
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To: lepton

I heard an interview with one of the passengers this morning. He caught it, but his wife did not.


236 posted on 03/18/2020 11:46:40 AM PDT by SoCal Pubbie
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To: RomanSoldier19

Time to get the military involved setting up the MASH hospitals that were discussed the other day. Looks like NY is going to get whacked hard.


237 posted on 03/18/2020 11:47:50 AM PDT by usconservative (When The Ballot Box No Longer Counts, The Ammunition Box Does. (What's In Your Ammo Box?))
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To: Vaquero

Me, too. Lol

Almost 70. You?


238 posted on 03/18/2020 11:49:07 AM PDT by laplata (The Left/Progressives have diseased minds.)
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To: familyop
Numbers of cases are quickly going up in quite a few states. Here’s the most updated map that I could find so far.

Two cases reported in Will County, IL near me, and a senior citizens home in Willowbrook, IL about 7 miles from me also reporting cases this morning.

Dammit, it's closing in on me......

239 posted on 03/18/2020 11:49:17 AM PDT by usconservative (When The Ballot Box No Longer Counts, The Ammunition Box Does. (What's In Your Ammo Box?))
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To: Elsie

I sent you a link that gives a lot of information about the ships.


240 posted on 03/18/2020 12:17:11 PM PDT by laplata (The Left/Progressives have diseased minds.)
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