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The Sober Math Everyone Must Understand about the Pandemic
Facebook ^ | March 12, 2020 | Jason S. Warner

Posted on 03/17/2020 10:42:50 AM PDT by Perseverando

This is a long post addressing two underlying issues with the current response to the pandemic that leave me concerned. It’s the longest post I’ve ever written.

For those of you not taking action, or believing the pandemic to be “over hyped”, you can make fun of me as much as you want now or when this is over. You can make me the subject of memes and post it everywhere. I will pose for the picture. I am not trying to convince you, but I do feel compelled to share information that I deem critical to all of us, which is why I am posting this at all.

WHY YOU SHOULD TAKE 5 MINUTES TO READ AND CONSIDER THE INFORMATION I AM SHARING:

As of 3/15/20 at 9 am PST this post has been shared over 50k times since it was posted 2 days ago. So a lot of people find value in the post and although it's a long read, I believe you will find this information valuable too.

For those of you who don’t know me well, I am analytical and metered. I don’t freak out nor do I respond emotionally. I also don’t post a bunch of bullshit or political or controversial stuff on Facebook. I founded and am CEO of a successful software company that provides SaaS based data, analytics, and dashboards to recruiting departments at companies we all know. As you would expect, I am data driven and fact based. Before founding my company I held executive roles leading very large recruiting teams at some of the world's fastest growing companies such as Starbucks and Google. At Google I was fortunate enough to report to Sheryl Sandberg before she took the Facebook COO role. I was a Chemical Engineering major in college and have

(Excerpt) Read more at facebook.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: coronavirus; covid19; socialdistanciing
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To: Vermont Lt

Yea we are all going to die, there will be not a person alive over the age of 70. It will be a scene out of the 1984 movie “The Day After”. Coughing, blood spitting people gasping for air in overcrowded hospitals, exhausted doctors covered in spit and feces scrambling from patient to patient. You have not read a word in this thread have you doomer? YOUR ASSUMPTIONS ON THE MATH maybe wrong. F*ck you people are tiresome negative pearl clutchers and dumb lemmings at that. How about we take a bet, I’ll bet you real $1000 dollars this thing is essentially over in 90 days and we have TOTAL fatalities of under 5000 and there will be no chronic, consistent overflow of sick patients at ANY hospital in America. Want to take that bet...yea I thought not...so shut up with your dumb opinions and wishcasting. Turn off the news and read a book.


81 posted on 03/17/2020 11:39:56 AM PDT by pburgh01 (Negan all the MSM)
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To: trebb
More of a “Me and Mine are mindlessly panicked so regular precautions can’t no way work for us so we need to get totally off the grid or....WE’RE ALL GONNA DIE!!!” type thing.

Yeah, I noticed he is a Prepper, too. /sarc

82 posted on 03/17/2020 11:39:56 AM PDT by Perseverando (Liberals, Progressives, Islamonazis, Statists, Commies, DemoKKKrats: It's a Godlessness disorder.)
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To: trebb

I’m convinced that the government was going to be taking minimal, reasonable measures that would be comparable to what you’d see in a bad flu season ... and that it was the large-scale cancellation of sports events that triggered the panic.


83 posted on 03/17/2020 11:40:02 AM PDT by Alberta's Child ("Oh, but it's hard to live by the rules; I never could and still never do.")
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To: Perseverando
I'm guessing you're a Biden fan. Why else post this BS?

BTW a I got an email with this same BS (same arguments including the 5th grade arithmetic) except it was "written by a doctor from the Cleveland Clinic" .

84 posted on 03/17/2020 11:40:13 AM PDT by Varda
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To: Perseverando

Korea had a method of distancing that didn’t shut down their country, and it seems to have worked well.

I don’t know if this guy understands america, but most of us are socially distanced anyway, or we socially interact in pretty tight circles.

I feel like there was a place somewhere between “ignore this”, and “shut down the world”, that would have helped.

I mean, we needed to stop most traffic, since we can’t test at every airport, and the europeans with their socialized medicine seem to be handling this very badly.

But here in this country, we see companies stepping up, we see insurance covering stuff, we see manufacturers stepping up, we just need to train people.

Disney in florida was closing on monday. Sunday night, their parks were packed, while Disney threw a “celebration” for their customers. This is why we might have needed more forced social distancing, because people are not very bright about it.

On the other hand, I bet there were no coronavirus cases at disney, and none from their celebration.


85 posted on 03/17/2020 11:41:43 AM PDT by CharlesWayneCT
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To: grey_whiskers

You win the internet today!


86 posted on 03/17/2020 11:42:04 AM PDT by abb
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To: Lockbox
Practice social distancing and do not touch anything!

I can't touch anything? OH MY GOD!!! Are you freaking nuts?

Just asking..........

87 posted on 03/17/2020 11:42:22 AM PDT by Osage Orange (Whiskey Tango Foxtrot)
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To: wastoute

What are you talking about?


88 posted on 03/17/2020 11:43:24 AM PDT by Osage Orange (Whiskey Tango Foxtrot)
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To: calenel
That 86% (used to be 85%, before that a mere 80%) is someone’s OCD ritual. If there were 86% of cases, undetected and wandering in the wilderness, they’d be causing hotspots like crazy.

No, not at all.

You assume that asymptomatic cases "wander in the wildness" separate from hot hotspots. That's a false assumption. There's no reason to think that they would be clustered in the same hotspots.

89 posted on 03/17/2020 11:44:00 AM PDT by FreeReign
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To: Perseverando

“I was a Chemical Engineering major in college and have a business degree from a top undergraduate business school.”


So was I. But, I actually made it through ChemE, and have the degree. Business courses were easy. Congratulations, pal.

I’m not panicking at all. This is just more a result of the hysteria generated from the National Enquirer level crappola media these days.

I’m fine, and will continue to be fine and haven’t adjusted a single thing in my life, nor will I.

500 or fewer people in the US will succumb to this (unfortunately) when it’s all said and done by mid-May.


90 posted on 03/17/2020 11:44:50 AM PDT by nesnah (Liberals - the petulant children of politics)
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To: JD_UTDallas

I realize now that the people are stupid. If everybody was like me, we went WAY overboard. I already socially distance. I monitor my health, and don’t go visit old people if I have a sniffle. When they told me about COVID, I started testing my temperature twice a day. I do the cleaning hands.

I go to the gym, I stay away from people. I swim, which disinfects me. If I used equipment, I wipe it down before and after — and ALWAYS HAVE.

I go out for pokemon, and we have a group, I stand to the side, and not downwind or upwind, and avoid any contact.

I go to restaurants, but I dont’ touch a bunch of stuff, I don’t grab my server, I wash my hands right after dinner before I leave. I am not a slob. I always washed my hands for 20 seconds after bathroom breaks.

But apparently, most people are idiots. Knowing that, I guess I should have been more supportive of the forced isolation crowd. But I just didn’t realize that the average american, told they need to stay away from everybody, would immeidately stand in a 1-hour close-packed line waiting to get into a fully packed grocery store to buy toilet paper, ignoring the people sneezing and coughing all around them.


91 posted on 03/17/2020 11:45:45 AM PDT by CharlesWayneCT
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To: pburgh01

You guys should read a book about how shit works. Because your 1960’s view of the world has changed a little bit.

It will be a pleasure watching you sit on the lawn outside your local hospital when you have your heart attack. Your wife or child pressing on your chest.

Don’t worry, your family will get your ashes. Well, they will be someone’s ashes.

I can barely contain my glee.


92 posted on 03/17/2020 11:45:54 AM PDT by Vermont Lt
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To: Vermont Lt

Now you did it - I agree with you on this precept.

Shouldn’t be too hard to set up some temp ICUs and allow medical professionals to rake in some overtime if supplies hold out and can be moved to where they are most needed...ICU is basically open areas with curtains between in a number of places (or partitions with wide entryways), but set up for convenience of access by a smaller number of professionals than would be required for regular rooms.

Biggest problem is that “like President “Trump” they haven’t stockpiled all the equipment and supplies for a “what if” event.....and people who have no real need/use for masks have bought them up so the folks who it would benefit most as far as handling the bug don’t have as ready access as they need....a case of panic buying causing more harm than good.

Hoping the actual spread is more as I envision it so there’s enough facilities even if some have to be “shipped” across town or to the next town....and those doing the shipping are astute enough to take proper precautions.

Stay well.


93 posted on 03/17/2020 11:47:40 AM PDT by trebb (Don't howl about illegal leeches, or Trump in general, while not donating to FR - it's hypocritical.)
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To: Perseverando

Nah - he’s a panicker.


94 posted on 03/17/2020 11:48:34 AM PDT by trebb (Don't howl about illegal leeches, or Trump in general, while not donating to FR - it's hypocritical.)
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To: Osage Orange

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number


95 posted on 03/17/2020 11:54:09 AM PDT by wastoute (Government cannot redistribute wealth. Government can only redistribute poverty.)
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To: Vermont Lt

May have to start converting Hotels to CoronaVirus Patients.


96 posted on 03/17/2020 11:55:17 AM PDT by LiveFreeOrDie2001 (God Bless President Trump!)
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To: trebb
What so many are seemingly failing to consider is that the US determined acceptable loss rates a few generations ago back during the Cold war. Under no possible nor feasible scenarios - with losses even as high as 50% - were there anticipated conditions for surrender to Soviet rule in the event of a possible nuclear exchange.

So too this current crisis. The reason that I accept - for purposes of argument - mortality rates approximating 5% of the total population (and yes, I well understand the exponential growth estimates), is to shift the debate towards an ethical/philosophical basis. That is, in essence, what price - if any - is too high to alter this nation's social, cultural and economic traditions, freedom & liberty?

Some seem to think martial law is more likely than adopting a "let 'er rip'" policy. (That is, letting CV run through the general population to establish some base level of herd immunity.) Reducing the people to the status of inmates in a giant collective gulag, ruled over by empowered bureaucrats, all for the sake of saving some relatively small % of the people, seems contradictory to existing principles.

The debate is mounting - fueled perhaps by data indicating actual lower overall rates of infection and/or acute experiences requiring emergency medical care, as well as possible disparate generational impacts - as to why the US is abandoning all semblance of adherence to civil rights in a republican form of government.

97 posted on 03/17/2020 11:56:49 AM PDT by semantic
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To: eartick

“I do not care much for most people in the first place and would rather be around my dogs.”

How do you know they want to be around you?...LOL stay healthy!


98 posted on 03/17/2020 11:57:43 AM PDT by oust the louse (The LEFT has no principles, it only has goals! They are the party of death, cheating and taxes.)
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To: Bob434

RE: 86% Don’t even know they have it.

Where are you getting that 86% figure from?


99 posted on 03/17/2020 11:57:54 AM PDT by SeekAndFind (look at Michigan, it will)
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To: Osage Orange

Why isn’t South Korea totally wiped off the map? They seemed to have gotten a handle on this fairly easy. Every statistic shows progress in a good way. And a vaccine hasn’t even been released yet.


100 posted on 03/17/2020 11:58:24 AM PDT by BushCountry (thinks he needs a gal whose name doesn't end in ".jpg")
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