Posted on 03/15/2020 11:30:14 PM PDT by dangus
When plotted on a logarithmic graph, the graph of the number of cases of an epidemic usually reaches a certain angle, and then eventually begins to flatten out. That brings a HUGE sigh of relief to those in charge of managing an outbreak, and begins when the PERCENT increase in the number of cases declines. You'll very likely continue to have more and more new cases for a while, and you'll certainly have more and more total cases.
So, the $100 trillion question is: Is the curve flattening? Through March 8, the number of coronavirus cases in the United States increased an average of well over 40% per day. On March 9, however, there were scarcely more NEW coronavirus cases than on March 8... but on March 10, the number popped again, with 45% more cases, or almost double the number of new cases (289 from 148). But then, the number of new cases dropped again on March 11 (271). That was only 29% more cases than the day before.
March 12 and March 13 saw higher growth rates again (33% and 35%). But on March 14, the growth rate slowed to 30%. And yesterday, the growth rate dropped again, to just 23%.
Now, I should note that I'm using Wikipedia's collation of the 50 states' departments of health. This differs from Johns Hopkins U.'s ARCGIS page. But I've fact-checked Wikipedia's citations and compared their count to previous days, so I know that even if Wikipedia counts new cases more slowly, I'm comparing apples to apples when I report that the growth rate has gone down... although it seems highly possible that the growth rate could end up being recorded in Wikipedia as slightly higher, and perhaps high enough that we don't quite manage fewer cases than the previous date.
I should also note that data like this is noisy, meaning it takes some time to be sure whether a decrease in the growth rate is going to be a part of a continuing trend. And changes in the data may not reflect real changes. For instance, a surge in testing could cause a surge in the number of cases identified even after the true growth rate has slowed.
THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT THE BATTLE IS OVER BY ANY STRETCH OF THE IMAGINATION. This is not about possibly only getting 5,000 or 6,000 cases... this is about whether we get hundreds of thousands of cases or tens of millions.
Now, I've seen from several people on Facebook a comparison on the spread of Coronavirus in the U.S. to the spread in Italy. We've gotten to 3,500 cases faster than Italy! Well, we're five times the size of Italy, so that shouldn't be surprising. But what makes the case in Italy so shocking is that 7% of the people who get coronavirus die of it. So far in the U.S., that's only about 1%, and much lower still if you don't include the Seattle cluster. So there's probably something deeply wrong with the Italian system that isn't showing up in ours.
Do everything you're supposed to: Stay out of crowds... obey the authorities (for now) (unless you can receive the Eucharist on the down-low somehow :-) )... don't go out clubbing... Make sure the older people you have are well provisioned... help the homeless to some clean food... But please, don't panic.
Part of Italy’s problem is the other factor (also contributing to China, Italy and Iran deaths) are that the two most important parameters in respiratory fitness are: 1. whether the person smokes cigarettes 2. the pollution level of the country. China has a smoking rate of 47.6% and Italy and Iran are also higher than US at 19.5% , pollution rates in China are 4.4 times higher than US, Iran two times an d Italy 50% higher per World Health Organization.
The alarmist who can only see worse case scenario won’t like this but the fatality rate as a % is already dropping and look: The two countries that have done the most testing that can be relied upon is S Korea and Germany , they have tested well over 450,000 and have a combined 13,975 cases and 86 deaths for a fatality rate of .0061 or less than 1% and that rate has been falling. That is more than the flu but nothing like what some are reporting here and in the news. The reason there is conjuncture that it may actually be much lower is that based on the Ro rate and the fact that Italy has long been the # 1 tourist destination for China and interestingly enough Italy has 350,000 Chinese nationals living in Italy with visas or citizenship, 5% of their population and backing the numbers against the timeline, it is almost certain that the number of people who actually have a mild version of COVID-19 is much higher-many never even know they have it.
That is why no one worldwide under the age of 10 has died and the fatality rate for those under 40 is 0.2 % and falling
Yes, travel restrictions, etc., can help flatten the curve... that’s called “being successful.” ;-)
Wikipedia does “all that work.” I only wanted to confirm their validity.
The numbers are meaningless because testing is spotty.>> no one seems to notice this but me and you. you can’t do statistics without data. well you can but th....
The curve does not flatten. Its better to say that in every new population, lets say every country, there is a curve separate from the overall curve. Each time the virus starts in a new population it has an exponential growth that reaches a point on the way to a maximum point within the population. Merkel opined that the maximum in Germany would be 70%. In the U.K. the PM suggested it may be 90%. But as the curve gets closer to the maximum in a given population it flattens.
Each population has a different curve. The traits of the virus are a large factor in the shape of the curve. But so is the government, the people, the culture, the economy. The shape of the curve would change on the combination of these factors as well as the maximum percentage. Taiwan may have a very low maximum. The U.K. which is not trying to stop the virus but rather to endure it, will have a higher maximum.
One thing to understand is that the curve does not demonstrate virus waves. A wave is an echo of the epidemic in a given population. If a population hides in their houses, it can reduce the magnitude of the first wave. But if its very successful, there may be a large second wave. As tourists come back, and students or workers from abroad return, they will reintroduce the virus. And if most of the population escaped the first wave, they will be susceptible to the second wave. The waves will continue, smaller and smaller until the population reaches its maximum. Or something changes, like a vaccine or other medicine.
And, for the record, the U.S. fatality rate outside Washington State is very similar to South Korea’s.
>> Its better to say that in every new population, lets say every country, there is a curve separate from the overall curve. Each time the virus starts in a new population it has an exponential growth that reaches a point on the way to a maximum point within the population. <<
Yes, but as I noted, the populations of Massachusetts and New York are more related than the populations of Seattle and Wuhan.
>> if it helps to see how idiotic this exercise is, think of each HOUSEHOLD in the USA as a separate country. <<
LOL! Rude, but funny, and correctly makes the point: states are less separate populations than continents!
hi, I think the Italian case is unique as
1. they were in the second wave to be hit
2. they didn’t take precautions - the authorities did what they could and gave kids 2 weeks off, but they went out clubbing, spreading the disease
3. the Italians didn’t change their lifestyle - they are a friendly lot with the handshaking and kissing - which was a death sentence now
4. They have a lot of old people
What hit them was the sharp bell curve.
In Poland the government has put in harsh - harsh measures. No shops open except groceries and aptekas. All schools and colleges closed. People working form home. No gatherings of > 50 people.
As for mass — our parish did this
1. Masses for less than 50 people - first priority to petitioners
2. Oldies are recommended to stay at home - the priests are going around with communion.
3. More shorter masses
4. Communion given outside to those who want and can’t get in to the mass
5. Online mass
Take care
Please go to World Of Meters for their curves:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
No, it’s not the single-payer medical system.
It’s the overwhelming numbers.
If the same happened in the USA, even with private hospitals etc., the beds would run out.
So if we don nothing to stop it. And it infects 100 million Americans and has between a 1% and 3% case mortality rate, that means 1 million to 3 million dead.
This has the potential to beat all of those death causes in your list.
And you know that myocardial infarction is the default death diagnosis. When an old person dies and they can’t determine an exact cause, it’s because his heart stopped.
We would love to hear solutions to all the other causes, but right now Coronavirus has our attention because it could turn out to be worse than all the others.
THAT is the goal.
Re: graphs and numbers
Wondering what the graph in post #10 would look like if it included the numbers in post #18.
We don't know if we are capturing an accurate number of cases?
In addition, the ordinary flu in the USA has killed more than Corona worldwide. So there's that.
Nice ;)
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