Britain's coronavirus crisis could last until Spring 2021 with up to 8MILLION people - or 15% of the population - hospitalised, secret NHS briefing reveals - as death toll leaps 14 in a day to 35

Daily Mail ^ | 03-15-2020 | Joe Middleton

[NRx]

Britain's coronavirus crisis could last until Spring 2021 and see 7.9million people hospitalised, a secret briefing for senior NHS figures has revealed.

The document, seen by The Guardian newspaper, shows that health chiefs expect the virus to last for another 12 months, and details how it will impact key staff in the NHS, police and fire brigade.

It says: 'As many as 80% of the population are expected to be infected with Covid-19 in the next 12 months, and up to 15% (7.9 million people) may require hospitalisation.'

It is understood the document was drawn up in recent days by Public Health England's preparedness and response team.

Dr Susan Hopkins, Deputy Director of PHE’s National Infection Service said: 'PHE used reasonable worse-case scenario figures, to restate the importance for people with symptoms to stay at home, including health care workers in order to reduce the spread of the virus.'

Paul Hunter, a professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia, and expert in epidemiology said: 'For the public to hear that it could last for 12 months, people are going to be really upset about that and pretty worried about that'

'A year is entirely plausible. But that figure isn't well appreciated or understood.'

[Cronos]

Virus in quotes?? You really think this is not caused by a virus?

[Antoninus]

What did the South Koreans do that we aren’t doing? I know Singapore completely sealed itself off from the rest of the world early.

Google is your friend. Check it out. It wasn't anything too crazy.

[Cronos]

I’m going to guess anywhere between 5,000 an 10k

[House Atreides]

Good post.

[Antoninus]

If it took the military and police to keep this from happening (the bottom) what would YOU advise?

Based on the type of hysteria you and others are ginning up, rioting in the cities is almost guaranteed. Congratulations. The "cure" will be worse than the disease.

[Cronos]

Tourism, business trips etc also spread it.

Also Italy doesn’t have unfettered immigration

[Cronos]

I’m in Poland.

People are stressed, but not full on panic.

On Wednesday schools were shut down for 2.5 weeks. Cinemas, theatres and museums as well.

On Friday the state ordered all shops except groceries and pharmacies shut for a week.

No gatherings of greater than 50 people.

Masses became more numerous so 50 people at a time at 15 masses instead of just 4 masses.

Toilet paper disappeared on Wednesday and thursday but levels were normal by Saturday. People have stopped panic buying though pasta levels are low everything else is at acceptable levels.

We have had 2 deaths and 160 cases but the population agrees what the govt is doing is the right thing, but that we should have done this two weeks ago

[MadMax, the Grinning Reaper]

American colonialists once raised the cry “The British are coming!”.

Today it is the British ex-colonialists who are crying “The virus is coming!” [Now is that the virus of Islamic sharia law and expansion, the virus of the Coronavirus, a Red Chinese gift for subverting countries, or the virus of stupidity and failed modelling that is so prevalent in Britain]?

[T. P. Pole]

Clearly I need to include sarcasm tags. I was just making fun of a ridiculous claim up-thread.

[Zhang Fei]

[I get called a lying Trump-hating panic spreader 20X an hour, and I don’t snivel about it, I carry on.]

---

What you are doing on Free Republic is a public service. Two points. One - overreaction costs are mainly economic while underreaction costs are in lives lost. No one is going to starve to death from any economic contraction. The Green Revolution a century ago means that 1% of the population produces enough food to make the other 99% obese, with enough surplus to export to godforsaken places like China.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Revolution

Two - this is an election year. The elderly tend to vote for Trump. Leaving aside the purely humanitarian aspects of mass death and illness, we don’t want the elderly shunted off to an early grave or ICU’s so that Democratic ballot harvesters can turn them into Biden voters. We need to put Trump back in office for another term. To do that, we must get this pandemic under control, and soon, to keep elderly voters healthy. And if that means losing a few points of GDP in the next few quarters, so be it. We’ll get them all back once Trump is in for a second term.

[granada]

Great Britain island

Area: 200,000 sq km
Population: 60 millions

China’s Hubei province (capital:Wuhan city )

Area: 180,000 sq km
Population: 60 millions

HuBei province has been locked down by China government.

[Kickaha]

Thanks for the info and the link. There’s a lot to digest and normalcy bias is always hard to overcome.

[bgill]

The world needs to decide if they want to go on full lock down for 2 weeks or have this thing drag out forever.

[DennisR]

https://www.businessinsider.com/italy-coronavirus-old-population-cases-death-rate-2020-3

[Crucial]

Until recently, Italy was accepting refugees by the boatload.

[null and void]

Use mine:

& l t /Sarc>

Collapse the spaces and it displays as:

</sarc>

[null and void]

One big frickin' ray of sunshine to start your Monday...

Bring Out Your Dead

Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.

The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.

The false positive rate was 100%.

At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.

*sigh* Such is life, and death...

If a quarantine saves just one child's or one old fart’s life, it's worth it.

[TigerClaws]

It’s amazing the people still in complete denial over this.

Not sure when they admit they were wrong. 1 million dead. 20?

Would be nice if some come back to these threads and apologize three months from mow - God willing we’re alive then.

[RushIsMyTeddyBear]

Bkmrk.

[ProtectOurFreedom]

Gateway Pundit, my “go to” for top cred info.

Gateway Pundit is mainly a news aggregator like Drudge (and like FreeRepublic for that matter). The GP article very plainly and openly writes "These numbers came from the World Health Organization YouTube page." It goes on to say "And according to the BBC the the AVERAGE AGE of those who have died is 81!"

So complaining about GP is complaining about WHO and BBC.