Ireland cancels all St. Patrick’s Day parades amid coronavirus outbreak

You know how serious this is when this level of cultural and economic events are stymied amongst Patty's posterity.

Thanks China. GFY

The bars will be full.

Coronavirus: Will consuming alcohol protect you?

Think how many people won’t die because they canceled St. Patrick’s Day.

Will consuming alcohol protect you?

Yes, but only if it is an IPA.

My son is there now and will be there for a couple more weeks for work. I know he’s going to be disappointed about this. I mean what are the chances to get a work trip to Ireland during St Pattys day? But, he told me that the people there are truly fearful about this virus.

Never let a crisis, even a created and over hyped one, go to waste. As for me n my household.. get some limes and settle down to watch the beer virus fear.
We are not going to cringe in the corner in fear. Be ye strong and courageous. My husband, with a recent 5 way bypass may not survive it.. but to h3ll with living his last days in fear.
Follow the money. Italy needs your taxpayer bailout. You gave for the homeless “crisis” in CA, so why not.

First they have a snake bite and now this.

If you would like on or off a ping list for these reports, let me know. Thanks.

COVID-19 Update As of 03/09/2020 23:53 PST

These numbers include Mainland China and All Others globally

This format allows you to see trends. I'll continue to use it.

        Declared Cases
        .         Declared Deceased
        .         .       Declared Recovered
        .         .       .        Declared Resolved
Date    .         .       .        .        Cases Remining Active
-----------------------------------------------------------------
03/03    93,160   3,198   50,690   53,888   39,272
03/04    95,425   3,286   53,399   56,685   38,740
03/05    98,387   3,383   55,441   58,824   39,563 
03/06   102,188   3,491   57,389   60,880   41,308
03/07   106,165   3,977   59,965   63,559   42,606
03/08   110,041   3,825   62,000   65,825   44,216
03/09   114,452   4,026   64,169   68,195   46,257

It's not that easy to spot the changes in daily growth.
Here they are:

03/03:  2,223
03/04:  2,265
03/05:  2,962
03/06:  3,801
03/07:  3,977
03/08:  3,876
03/09:  4,411

That's a rather pronounced growth rate. These are just the declared cases
but still...

The last column there shows the numbers of active cases. You will note how
they were dropping, then started increasing again. Here are the last five days
drop & then growth numbers.

03/03:   -494 
03/04:   -532 
03/05:    823 
03/06:  1,745 
03/07:  1,298
03/08:  1,610
03/09:  2,041

Resolved cases are still helping to soften the massive numbers of new cases
declared each day. That doesn't nullify the fact that active cases are
climbing and will break the old peak in less than a week.

We have hot spots around the world, and instead of one or two of them, we now
have upwards of seven far above, or moving above the 1,000 case level in the
next day or two.

It has been my take that once you go above a few hundred you were close to out
of control. Some nations seem to have found a way to stop the growth, but you
have to wonder if they actually did, or are holding back on reporting.

I will touch on break out nations again lower in this report.

As predicted, the mortality rate that went as low as 5.65% on the 27th, has now
begun to climb again. As of 03/09 it is running at 5.90%. It grew 0.09% on
the 9th, and 0.16% on the day before that.

We are still running a very large report of new cases per day. So far new cases
present new deaths, and a track toward recovery for most folks. Unfortunately
when it comes to the mortality rate, the deaths are report first, by weeks.

COVID-19 cases outside China now make up 61.72% of global active cases.
That means there are still 38.28% of active cases in Mainland China. Of
course we don't know how truthful that is, because we have never been
convinced that China has been reporting out valid numbers. As stats come
in from case results outside China it will become more clear how accurate
China's reporting has been.

Some folks ask why I bother to report out Mainland China numbers. I do so
because it's all we have. We all know the reporting issues. I put this out
there and I think others can determine for themselves how much credence to
to attribute to them.

The numbers and percentages of resolved cases has continued to hold up pretty
well. On 03/07 at 18:03 PST the percentage peaked at 59.918% of all documented
cases having been resolved. As of the EOD 03/09, that percentage remained at
59.584%. That's actually pretty good considering the volume of new cases that
are now being reported.

These numbers address the cases outside of Mainland China.

I will provide the same format for the numbers outside Mainland China.

        Declared Cases
        .        Declared Deceased
        .        .     Declared Recovered
        .        .     .       Declared Resolved
Date    .        .     .       .       Cases Remaining Active
-----------------------------------------------------------------
03/03   12,890   217     837   1,054   11,836
03/04   15,015   279   1,222   1,501   13,514
03/05   17,832   341   1,685   2,026   15,806 
03/06   21,537   421   1,986   2,407   19,130
03/07   25,470   497   2,871   3,368   22,102
03/08   29,285   706   3,389   4,095   25,190
03/09   33,696   890   4,258   5,148   28,548

Lets talk about the United States again. I addressed the issue of the
U. S. catching fire several days ago. There was reason for concern, because two
back to back days saw 46.54 & 45.06 growth. It had dropped to 28.11% & 27.94%.
Then on 03/09 it was back up to a 36.10% increase.

In the United States we now stand at 754 cases. Another day above 33.00%, and
we'll be at 1,000 cases and growing. Of course the U.S. is one of the larger
nations. We have a potential for big numbers compared to nations with less
populace, so the media can play on that.

Right now we are ranked 7th outside China. I expect to see us crawl up that
ranking list. The other nation's numbers are also growing, so we'll see.

The current mortality rate of deceased / deceased + recovered remains too high to
take much meaning from. I've seen 14-18% figures, but those are not even in
the same ball park as what the final rate will be.

You can still review them if you access my database.

There are now 115 nations declaring cases within their borders. 1+

Tonigh we'll take a look at seven nations outside China. These seven account
for over 84% of the global numbers outside China. Here they are.

9,172 27.22% Italy
7,513 22.30% South Korea
7,161 21.25% Iran
1,412 04.19% Franc
1,231 03.65% Spain
1,224 03.63% Germany
0,754 02.24% the USA

84.48% of all cases outside of China...

These are clearly seven nations worthy of watching.

I have a new section that addresses only the cases in the United States.

I have a new metric that explains how many people there are to one case in
each of these entities: Globally, Mainland China, Outside China, and inside
the United States. There is one person in every so many people in each of
these entities.

Globally      :  167,975
Mainland China:   78,265
Outside China :  272,173
The U. S. A.  :  459,527

One thing that bothers me about the reporting by Johns Hopkins University
is that they wait until after 20:00 EDT to report out recovered numbers.
The United States seems to be particularly bad about reporting out
recovery numbers, but it's possible we haven't seen cases in numbers here
large enough to produce a good body of recovering people yet.

We had those large losses from that one nursing home, and that has skewed
the mortality rate to something in the range of 70%. Over the long hawl that
isn't going to hold up, so it's nothing more than a curiosity at the moment.
No nation is seeing anything like that.

It's just unfortunate how that turned out there for the inhabitants.

Even the Diamond Princess, the cruise ship where everyone was figured to be
next to death, out of 696 cases, so far only 6 have died. That and other
numbers out there outside of China, make it clear this is not a mass killer.
People will die like they do whenever the flu comes along. Sad but true.

All data below sourced from Johns Hopkins University: LINK

I have been downloading three to five reports per day since 01/27. I have then
worked up numbers that should give a very good representation of numbers that
have been provided to the public via that site.

In my spreadsheet linked below, you'll find global numbers including China. You
will find a separate section addressing just the Outside China figures. Then
there is now also a section with just the United States stats in there. There
are also a lot of special stats broken out for you to browse. The history of
115 nations and their numbers from day one of their reporting.

You're welcome to it.

COVID-19 Spreadsheet using JHU data

File XLSX

File XLS

I now have an XLS file again, but it is for viewing only. I had to do a wrap-
around to get it to fit in the XLS file format. On the top right you will see
nations 1-70 listed. I cut and pasted nations 71-115 under them. You'll
see what I mean.

(It may all be part of the overall spiritual snake bite)

St. Patrick’s Day is when my cute little girls put on wigs and dance their jigs in retirement communities...egad!, a perfect storm! Luckily, there have been no reported cases of COVID-19 in my state, so the timing is perfect.

In related news...

Grover’s Mill, New Jersey, has declared martial law as many have succumbed to the CV pathogen.

Many folks are; at this moment; lying in the streets, gasping for air, as their lives slip away.

Grover’s Mill, New Jersey, has declared martial law...

I was 3 years old in 1938 when Orson Wells caused that panic. -Tom

You old coot!

The ‘panic’ was caused by those who failed to hear the FIRST part of the broadcast; which clearly stated that is was fiction.

I looked up the actual book that Wells wrote and the setting is in England. I used the radio program as an illustration because I figured most would not recognize the location in the book; but would the radio program.

There is nothing new under the sun!

So how did the story of the "panic" grow over the years?

Slate blames newspapers, which allegedly "seized the opportunity

presented by Welles' program to discredit radio as a source of news.

The newspaper industry sensationalized the panic to prove to advertisers,

and regulators, that radio management was irresponsible and not to be trusted."

https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2013/10/30/241797346/75-years-ago-war-of-the-worlds-started-a-panic-or-did-it

https://www.google.com/search?q=war+of+worlds+panic&ie=&oe=

ANNOUNCER: The Columbia Broadcasting System and its afﬁliated stations

present Orson Welles and the Mercury Theatre on the Air in

The War of the Worlds by H. G. Wells.

(MUSIC: MERCURY THEATRE MUSICAL THEME)

ANNOUNCER: Ladies and gentlemen: the director of the Mercury Theatre

and star of these broadcasts, Orson Welles . . .

(and the rest is history)

So how did the story of the "panic" grow over the years?

Without looking it up, the original program was Music interrupted by believable news bulletins. -Tom