Posted on 02/29/2020 10:33:56 AM PST by blam
One week ago, ahead of today’s Chinese data release which would for the first time capture the devastation from the coronavirus pandemic, we wrote that “to those who have been following our series of high-frequency, daily indicators of China’s economy, it will probably not come as a surprise that the world’s second biggest economy has ground to a halt, its GDP set to post the first negative print in modern history. To everyone else who is just now catching up, we have some news: it’s going to be bad.”
Specifically, we said that ahead of official Chinese economic data which will soon start capturing the period when the coronavirus crippled the country’s economy, Nomura’s Chief China economist Ting Lu pointed out that China’s Emerging Industries PMI (EPMI), which gauges momentum in the country’s high-tech industries and is closely correlated with official manufacturing PMI, slumped to 29.9 in February (from 50.1 in January!), its lowest-print on record, which was a “pure reflection of the devastating impact of the COVID-19 outbreak.”
What would this mean for the closely followed China manufacturing PMI? As Nomura added, "even adjusting for seasonality and expected progress in business resumption in the coming week, we estimate the official manufacturing PMI could drop to a range of 30-40 in Feb."
In retrospect, it turns out that Nomura's dire forecast was optimistic, because moments ago China's National Statistics Bureau reported the latest, February PMIs and they were absolutely catastrophic:
(snip)
(Excerpt) Read more at sgtreport.com ...
“I have never understood why ANY nation would not seek to be self-sufficient.”
Nations are led by politicians. Self sufficiency takes hard work. Real work. Politicians are lazy and inept.
Simple as that.
Work is what PDJT does.
Force the Chinese and Mexicans to inspect each shipment for DOPE. Sign off on it on their end, and we inspect again on or end. We find DOPE we seize the product and shipment method to be sold to highest bidder, funds used to treat the problem it caused. Not clean shoot up rooms. Detox the DOPE addicts.
” I’m beginning to think that the Chinese leadership’s panic was possibly triggered by the effects of the swine flu on swine herds. “
How about they were panicked because they designed it and know what it’s capable of.
“The Chinese can try the same by virus bombing the West coast.”
And you think these balloons would not be seen by electronic means?
Seriously?
Time for a tinfoil hat refit.
When US consumption was all US manufactured goods, the standard pf living was much lower than current levels with ability to purchase many more imported affordable items.
The labor rate differential is too large between USA and Asian countries, for example. Americans are addicted to Walmart prices, and they will vote for politicians who promote those policies. What this country really needs to do is punish those countries who subsidize high-tech products. For example Airbus in Europe gets much more help from their governments than Boeing does from US govt.
I seem to remember something from a long time ago about people who will sell you the rope to hang them.
Simple explanation to your question: People prefer $29 imported gym shoes over $129 US made gym shoes. Patriotism stops at the pocket book! Nike makes all their gym shoes in cheap labor countries.
Except it takes time to build factories... AND most of the parts for the machinery come from.... China.
If you think it’s bad now... imagine what a war with China would have looked like... Thank God Trump saw these things and started the process of bringing industry back to the US two days after he was sworn into office....
I will say the US mfg New Balance are great on your feet and very durable. I’ve bought some on Amazon for under 80 bucks if you get the sales.
Although I consider you the exceptional consumer, I applaud you for buying American made stuff, even if it costs more.
[How about they were panicked because they designed it and know what it’s capable of.]
Before the offensive effort was shut down by Nixon, the best minds at Fort Detrick couldn’t do much beyond replicate current pathogens and design delivery vehicles that wouldn’t destroy those pathogens when detonated/released. If the Chinese can’t even build a working copy of an engine for a jet fighter than won’t flame out prematurely, despite having multiple copies of the original Russian engines in their inventory, it’s a stretch to think that they can gin up an *original* virus that is more virulent than anything found in nature.
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/chinas-air-force-has-one-big-problem-it-cant-seem-solve-34192
Real life and science fiction are very different things. We envisioned light speed travel in the 60’s. 60 years later, we can’t even get within 1/10,000 of that speed today.
More good news.
China’s economy tanking.
Islamists dying from it.
The bad Pope may even have it.
“Apparently, he is opening the doors to Viet Nam to replace the Philippines to be our future military and economic base in that area of Asia.”
Communists still run Vietnam, so that’s a booby trap.
So you think they stole the virus? And got kicked out of Canada for the theft? And that’s why civilized first world countries might be able to have a vaccine in 18 months? Because it’s OUR bioweapon?
Is that what you’re saying?
Trump was WAY AHEAD of the curve on moving companies within the supply chain out of China and back to the US...
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/01/trump-ordered-us-firms-to-ditch-china-but-many-already-have.html
If that’s the case then ground zero will be Disneyland.
The irony here is that decoupling from China had already begun to some extent due to the trade war.
“Oh-Oh...this isn’t good.”
It’s zerohedge. Sometimes they have good data. Sometimes it is garbage. They consistently predict 50 out of every 10 catastrophes and are the ultimate source of doom and gloom economics.
So I would check the official statistics before believing their take. In that way, Zerohedge is very useful. Sometimes they point you to really good information that noone else is talking about.
That said, the numbers they cite really aren’t at all surprising, given the other information about the extent of the Chinese quarantine.
[So you think they stole the virus? And got kicked out of Canada for the theft? And that’s why civilized first world countries might be able to have a vaccine in 18 months? Because it’s OUR bioweapon?
Is that what you’re saying?]
There are many companies questioning their "China first" sourcing strategy. Many have moved to Taiwan and the Phillipines already, but it's too little, too late.
The rationalization is so many companies have put all their eggs in China's basket, the new mantra is now Anywhere But China.
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