Posted on 02/28/2020 9:25:51 PM PST by ProtectOurFreedom
An editorial published Friday in the New England Journal of Medicine speculated that the coronavirus currently causing panic in world markets could turn out no worse than “a severe seasonal influenza” in terms of mortality.
Citing an analysis of the available data from the outbreak in China, the authors note that there have been zero cases among children younger than 15; and that the fatality rate is 2% at most, and could be “considerably less than 1%.”
Those who have died have been elderly or were already suffering from another illness — as with ordinary flu. The underlying data suggest that the symptoms varies, and fewer than one in six of the cases reported were “severe.”
The authors note that coronavirus looks to be much less severe than other recent outbreaks of respiratory illnesses:
[T]he overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.
The vast majority of patients recover, and among those who are hospitalized, the median stay thus far is 12 days.
Coronavirus, they note, does spread easily, and the average infected person has infected two other people. That means the U.S. should expect the illness to gain a “foothold.” But they note travel restrictions on China (imposed by President Donald Trump over the objections of some critics) “may have helped slow the spread of the virus.”
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
Discussion
During the initial phase of the Covid-19 outbreak, the diagnosis of the disease was complicated by the diversity in symptoms and imaging findings and in the severity of disease at the time of presentation. Fever was identified in 43.8% of the patients on presentation but developed in 88.7% after hospitalization. Severe illness occurred in 15.7% of the patients after admission to a hospital. No radiologic abnormalities were noted on initial presentation in 2.9% of the patients with severe disease and in 17.9% of those with nonsevere disease. Despite the number of deaths associated with Covid-19, SARS-CoV-2 appears to have a lower case fatality rate than either SARS-CoV or Middle East respiratory syndrome–related coronavirus (MERS-CoV). Compromised respiratory status on admission (the primary driver of disease severity) was associated with worse outcomes.
Approximately 2% of the patients had a history of direct contact with wildlife, whereas more than three quarters were either residents of Wuhan, had visited the city, or had contact with city residents. These findings echo the latest reports, including the outbreak of a family cluster,4 transmission from an asymptomatic patient,6 and the three-phase outbreak patterns.8 Our study cannot preclude the presence of patients who have been termed “super-spreaders.”
Conventional routes of transmission of SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV, and highly pathogenic influenza consist of respiratory droplets and direct contact,18-20 mechanisms that probably occur with SARS-CoV-2 as well. Because SARS-CoV-2 can be detected in the gastrointestinal tract, saliva, and urine, these routes of potential transmission need to be investigated21 (Tables S1 and S2).
The term Covid-19 has been applied to patients who have laboratory-confirmed symptomatic cases without apparent radiologic manifestations. A better understanding of the spectrum of the disease is needed, since in 8.9% of the patients, SARS-CoV-2 infection was detected before the development of viral pneumonia or viral pneumonia did not develop.
In concert with recent studies,1,8,12 we found that the clinical characteristics of Covid-19 mimic those of SARS-CoV. Fever and cough were the dominant symptoms and gastrointestinal symptoms were uncommon, which suggests a difference in viral tropism as compared with SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV, and seasonal influenza.22,23 The absence of fever in Covid-19 is more frequent than in SARS-CoV (1%) and MERS-CoV infection (2%),20 so afebrile patients may be missed if the surveillance case definition focuses on fever detection.14 Lymphocytopenia was common and, in some cases, severe, a finding that was consistent with the results of two recent reports.1,12 We found a lower case fatality rate (1.4%) than the rate that was recently reportedly,1,12 probably because of the difference in sample sizes and case inclusion criteria. Our findings were more similar to the national official statistics, which showed a rate of death of 3.2% among 51,857 cases of Covid-19 as of February 16, 2020.11,24 Since patients who were mildly ill and who did not seek medical attention were not included in our study, the case fatality rate in a real-world scenario might be even lower. Early isolation, early diagnosis, and early management might have collectively contributed to the reduction in mortality in Guangdong.
Despite the phylogenetic homogeneity between SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV, there are some clinical characteristics that differentiate Covid-19 from SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV, and seasonal influenza infections. (For example, seasonal influenza has been more common in respiratory outpatient clinics and wards.) Some additional characteristics that are unique to Covid-19 are detailed in Table S3.
We may never know.
The virus load is very high in all healthcare workers. I think that accounts for the high infection and mortality rate in young doctors. We always hear about the doctors, but what about the tens of thousands of medics. I wonder how they are faring.
For the naysayers who say people die from the flu, do you know someone who has? Can you name a notable person who has?
You’re so right and wise.
I appreciate your call for panic above any rational thought.
Thank you.
Somewhere between 80,000 and 116,000 Americans died from the Asian flu and yes, I did know someone who died from it...a kid I went to school with.
It is not "panic" to ask and discuss. Or, maybe it is. Are you panicked to think about and discuss this topic? Why? Care to share? Maybe it would ease your mind to discuss why you are so panicked by the discussion.
There is a chart out by CDC or others today that shows the rate, by age group, ranging to 20% mortality. That is not the flu.
There are many ways to look at the mortality rates, very interesting data. Would be better to have worldwide transparency, but interesting just the same.
Knowing that it is just down the road from me, makes me pay attention. It is abstract now, but might not be next week.
I gave you states from two different sites, re how many Americans died from it; not world wide stats.
The vast majority of states, thus far, have NOBODY with the Coronavirus and no deaths yet.
The deaths and infections, in Italy, thus far, can be blamed on one man, who probably came into contact with a carries, in another country.
Iran is more "closed" than China is; it's also even less "transparent", when it comes to telling the truth about anything!
You ignored just about everything I posted. Oh well.....
i didn’t realize that FR allowed non-alarmist articles about coronavirus to be posted here ...
William Henry Harrison?
“For the naysayers who say people die from the flu, do you know someone who has? Can you name a notable person who has?”
there’s dozens of deadly diseases that i’ve HEARD about, but because i personally don’t know any notable person who’s succumbed to any of them, i now realize that what i heard about them being deadly isn’t true ... thanks for clearing up my confusion ...
Breitbart is partially quoting the original article in a misleading way. What they actually said is that coronavirus is closer to the flu than it is to SARS or MERS , which have had case fatality rates of 10% and 36%, respectively. Yes it is true that 2% is closer to .1% than 36%. That's all they are saying.
No worse than the flu? Yet China shut down the country, bulldozed roads into Wuhan, notable people are dying.
For the naysayers who say people die from the flu, do you know someone who has? Can you name a notable person who has?
Many thousands of people do die from the Flu each year, mostly from the pneumonia and complications with underlying health problems. This particular virus seems to have a more prevelant spread versus what we consider “normal” flu.
So, folks should be aware and take the usual health precautions for prevention. But there is no reason for hysteria. I have traveled over to the Reddit for coronavirus and there are people afraid of economic collapse, food production ground to a halt and all sorts of mayhem. Some are depressed, others having some potentially sever mental health issues. I blame the media for banner headlines everytime a new case is found. Some people will die...but it is not a death sentence. It can be serious business, but one not need to give up.
The good news is that the drug Remdesivitar (sic) has been undergoing Phase III trials. That should be completed shortly and fast tracked for FDA approval for use in Covid-19 treatment. It is a cure, but not a vaccine. It works. And since it has been around for awhile, having been developed for Ebola, it has already undergone Phase I and II trials and is proven safe for humans.
So...Keep Calm and Live Life... chances are you will not get the coronavirus and chances are that if you do get it, it will be a mild case. In the wild chance you get a serious case, there is a drug to treat it fast.
In the end, be smart with precautions if it is in your area, but don’t let worry consume you. I think that is a good balance. See you on the other side.
I suspect nowhere near 80,000 Americans will die from COVID-19. The reason the casualties will be lower is because it is a more dangerous virus, and we know that. More contagious, higher mortality. Because of that, significant efforts will be made to prevent uncontrolled spread. Individuals increasing personal awareness of what they are touching, washing hands more frequently, and eventually keeping kids home from school, working from home, avoiding crowds, buses, trains, planes, etc. At higher levels, public health workers will gather data, try to track infections and contact people at risk. Local, state and federal governments will take more extreme cautions when required like publishing information on clusters, ordering quarantines, closing or ordering closure of schools, public and private facilities, transportation, etc in areas with uncontrolled spread.
Because of these things, assuming they are effective, there will be far, far fewer infections than something like the flu and far fewer deaths. Think of it this way; if you hear a couple kids that go to your child’s school have the flu, you don’t keep your kid home for weeks until it is proven everyone is healthy. If you find out a couple kids have COVID-19, you obvious keep your kids home. In fact, you probably won’t have a choice, as the whole school will be closed. Human nature is to avoid dangerous things. Treating it like “just the flu” would be a disaster, but that will not happen because we know what it is. If it DOES kill such large numbers, we will have failed at several levels.
A load of garbage from you as usual .
China has NOT shutdown the country.
So who is paying you clowns to keep posting this garbage on FR then? Tell us.
Who is paying YOU to denigrate anyone posting who is concerned?
Have you even been paying attention to what has been going on in China for past 2.5 months? All the YouTube and Twitter videos? I think not.
Since we are all “clowns,” wise one please post all the threads that support your position that China is just hunky-dory...no problems...
As you say, “Tell us”
If you don’t agree, fine...But why can’t you just move on to another thread instead of accusing and name-calling?
BTW I am going to agree with our President, Tom Cotton, Tucker Carlson, et al...They seem to think the issue is serious and warrants a task force...Are they clowns too?
Again, who is paying who...
Which is why I bought 22 day call options at the bottom of the market yesterday.
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