Trump is not losing any state he got in 16. Expect him tot take MN as well in 20
He will take Maine, New Hampshire and possibly Nevada as well.
Consider all states in which Trump + Libertarian + Independent Conservative exceeded Hillarious + Green as our targets:
The three crucial states of 2016 (MI, PA and WI)
also: NH, MN, ME (at large but not 1CD), NM, NV, CO
plus maybe: OR, VA