Consider all states in which Trump + Libertarian + Independent Conservative exceeded Hillarious + Green as our targets:
The three crucial states of 2016 (MI, PA and WI)
also: NH, MN, ME (at large but not 1CD), NM, NV, CO
plus maybe: OR, VA
MI, PA and WI are NOT in play in 16.... anyone telling you they are does not know anything about them... and does not know how and why Trump won in 16.
He will not lose a single state he took in 16.
Any state he got over 45% and lost, expect him to win and he will be battling in states he got between 40 and 45 and I expect him to take a few of them as well.
High water mark for the Dems, regardless of who their nominee is, is about 10 states and DC.