Coronavirus Live Updates: Changes to Diagnosis Criteria Result in Confusion

nytimes ^ | 2/20/2020 | nytimes

[bitt]

The way China counts confirmed cases of the virus changed for the second time in a week, muddling the data, confusing scientists and resulting in a drop in new infections.

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China again alters the methodology for counting coronavirus cases, as death toll rises to 2,118.

For the second time in a week, China on Thursday changed its criteria for confirming coronavirus cases, throwing into confusion the methodology that the country at the heart of the outbreak uses to track transmissions and resulting in a dramatic decrease in new infections.

The new criteria exclude patients from Hubei Province, the hardest-hit area of the outbreak, who are diagnosed using clinical methods, including CT scans and an assessment of symptoms. Instead, patients there would be counted as having contracted the virus only when confirmed by a specialized nucleic acid test. Using the new criteria, officials in the province on Thursday recorded 349 new cases in the previous 24 hours, bringing the total national figures to 74,576. New deaths rose by 114 on Wednesday, bringing the death toll to 2,118.

In its sixth iteration of a diagnosis regime, the government said it would differentiate between “suspected” and “confirmed” cases from now on. Cases would only be considered confirmed after genetic testing.

[bitt]

P

[bitt]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[Zhang Fei]

[”When I use a word,” Humpty Dumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, “it means just what I choose it to mean—neither more nor less.” “The question is,” said Alice, “whether you can make words mean so many different things.” “The question is,” said Humpty Dumpty, “which is to be master—that’s all.”]

[buffyt]

A friend of ours, A J Roberts, did her Masters and PHD studies on viruses. This is her facebook page. https://www.facebook.com/AJRobertsrtb/ She has been keeping us up to date. She is with REASONS TO BELIEVE.

[DoughtyOne]

Convid-19 Spreadsheet using JHU data

File XLSX

File XLS

[DoughtyOne]

Sounds like China is dinking around trying to prevent the declaring of many more cases.

This is idiotic in that you can’t hide the fact you’re having to scoop up bodies on the street.

So the growth of declared cases goes to zero. The recovered and fatalities have the active declared cases pegged at zero, and people are still dropping dead like crazy.

Talk about a banana republic.

Just deal with it China. It’s an epidemic.

Facts are facts, and farther you run from them, the more of a banana republic you’ll wind up looking like.

[null and void]

Instead, patients there would be counted as having contracted the virus only when confirmed by a specialized nucleic acid test.

And they just won't have anywhere near enough test kits to cover everyone with ground glass lungs, and the ones they do get have shown a 70% false negative rate.

They've kinked the graph before, and the new criteria did not stop the upward trend once the kink happened.

Bring Out Your Dead

Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.

The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.

So far the false positive rate is 100%.

At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.

*sigh* Such is life, and death...

If a quarantine saves just one child's life, it's worth it.

[Jim Noble]

This changing of criteria is quite normal under these circumstances.

As I have said here before, nobody knows, and nobody CAN know, how many cases there are.

And how many there REALLY are holds the key to understanding, and eventually controlling, the problem.

If a nasopharyngeal PCR is the gold standard, under conditions existing in Hubei province, cases will be severely undercounted. If you use clinical criteria only, you will be counting flu cases, or colds.

Forget the numbers. Focus on Wuhan, and why it is so different from every other province in China, every other place on earth in fact - that’s the interesting thing about this situation.

[tired&retired]

Breaking News: CHINA LIES...again

Duh

[Mom MD]

ground glass appearance on a CT is very no specific. I have see. many chest CTs done for no infectious reasons come back with an incidental finding of ground glass infiltrates is a normal non sick individual. It just means there are some hazy areas on the scan and basically means nothing. It is not diagnostic of infection let alone a specific infection.

[Mom MD]

in a normal non sick individual. 3 am typing....

[null and void]

So as a doctor, if a patent presented with ground glass lung, you'd call it a day and not do any other tests?

That's what the doctors who want to live are doing in Hubei.

“if a single new case is found” after Wednesday “the district leaders will be held responsible.”

[null and void]

OK, no other symptoms, makes sense.

Always a judgment call.

[Mom MD]

people do not present with ground glass lung nor is it a diagnosis. I would do tests consistent with their clinical presentation. sometimes the ground glass appearance is significant and sometimes it is not. Hold the hostility I’m just clarifying a term that is being thrown around like it is diagnostic of something. It is not.

[null and void]

Posts passing in the night...

[Mom MD]

you have been working overtime. Have a good night!

[Moonman62]

The new criteria exclude patients from Hubei Province, the hardest-hit area of the outbreak, who are diagnosed using clinical methods, including CT scans and an assessment of symptoms. Instead, patients there would be counted as having contracted the virus only when confirmed by a specialized nucleic acid test. Using the new criteria, officials in the province on Thursday recorded 349 new cases in the previous 24 hours, bringing the total national figures to 74,576. New deaths rose by 114 on Wednesday, bringing the death toll to 2,118.

In its sixth iteration of a diagnosis regime, the government said it would differentiate between “suspected” and “confirmed” cases from now on. Cases would only be considered confirmed after genetic testing.

...

So they are going back to the way the United States and other countries do it. The problem is this makes it tough for statistics keepers.

[null and void]

You too! Thanks for the background(glass)...

[null and void]

OK, I'll bite.

How is Wuhan different from every other province in China, and every other place on earth?...