Posted on 02/09/2020 2:16:57 PM PST by janetjanet998
There are currently 40,221 confirmed cases worldwide, including 904fatalities.
I’m NOT buying a Honda.
Only the ingredients, but I concede that over the short term it amounts to about the same thing.
If you believe the “official” Chinese numbers, you’ve already conceded discussion. Or you’re an apologist.
Fair points about the flu.
Yet at best, it implies we’ll have another flu, with likely double the deaths, from the introduction of coronavirus.
Heck, coronavirus is so ‘mutatable’ we may end up with a Summer flu season.
This being my ninth day of battling this damned flu, I sure hope to be over it before Corona gets loose here in the States or there’ll likely be one less monthly donor for our endless FReepathons.
LOL
(sorta)
Yes, I have some associates on a business forum who are aware of every nuance of trans-Pacific shipping, but if ships fail to be loaded and dispatched from China, only around five days until their absence shows over here.
“… we have only 12 confirmed cases. “
And IIRC most of those are evacuees in secure locations.
It is strange though.
Give it another week.
To a certain point it is. But getting obsessed with this kind of stuff, to the point where it takes over your life is not. I myself had to back off some as it was causing too much non-productive anxiety. I have already prepared in pretty much every way I could..
18 percent in serious or critical if you take out the dead and recovered
The following is the precent in currently serious by dividing the current number but total cases including released and deaths
As you can see there seems to be a “ death delay” .. so most of the people that died today likely had it for awhile .. the dr that died had it for 3 weeks before he passed. Even if we get zero more cases there will still be many more deaths .. that is why you can’t simply divide the current deaths by the number of “official” cases to get the fatality rate of 2.24 percent .. which is creeping up as the daily deaths increase and the new cases stay the same or slightly drop
China only
total in serious or worse, % of the overall total, deaths
1-24 237 18.4% 16 deaths
1-25 324 16.4% 15 deaths
1-26 461 16.8% 24 deaths
1-27 976 21.6% 26 deaths
1-28 1219 20.8% 26 deaths
1-29 1370 17.7% 38 deaths
1-30 1527 15.7% 43 deaths
1-31 1795 15.2% 46 deaths
2-1 2110 14.6% 45 deaths
2-2 2296 13.3% 53 deaths
2-3 2788 13.6% 64 deaths
2-4 3219 13.3% 65 deaths
2-5 3859 13.8% 73 deaths
2-6 4821 15.5% 73 deaths
2-7 6101 17.7% 86 deaths
2-8 6188 16.6% 88 deaths
2-9 6484 16.1% 97 deaths
My company has a supply chain/QA office in ShenZhen. We have been sending them supplies, like Masks, disinfectants, etc. They are being required to have a sanitation/Virus plan before they will be allowed to resume work.
-We are tackling this by staggering the shifts.
-Masks are required at all times by the government.
-Handwashing/sanitizing stations are being set up to be used before and after any visit to a communal area like the lunchroom or the bathrooms.
-No one is allowed to congregate.
-Emails for all communications where possible
-Personal space of 2 meters for all face to face communication
There is more, but that's the main stuff. The issue is, this is an OFFICE, I have no idea how you would manage this in a factory space. Thankfully we closed our production facility some time ago. I don't know how we would have managed that.
We need to restore our pharma and medical device, food and key infrastructure domestic manufacturing.
Higher quality and safer all around.
Thanks much for that report!
Wow, yeah... I can’t imagine that being carried out in a factory!
And the smokers? Just wow!
Scott Gottlieb, MD
@ScottGottliebMD
Growing indications that U.K. may have community transmission of #coronavirus in Britain
https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1226522056654761986
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/uk-faces-major-coronavirus-outbreak-warns-world-expert-wxf628g75
Almost a million people were hospitalized during the 2017-2018 flu season. The vaccine didn’t do much good that year, that’s why so many got sick and died.
I know the numbers coming out of China are way too low.
I’ve been following this for weeks now.
I never said it was “the common flu”
The concern is that this 2019nCoV will pretty much disappear as the weather gets warmer & then may reappear in the Fall along with a more common flu.
That would be very bad indeed.
I Never said I believed the Chinese numbers. In fact, quite the opposite. I believe the number of cases are at least 10 times worse than they are reporting
If there are 400,000 cases instead of 40,000 and only 1,000 deaths, that's 0.25% If there are 40,000 and only 1,000 deaths, that's 2.5% Or 400,000 cases, and 10,000 deaths of which they have only announced 1,000 and hidden the rest. In that case mortality is 2.5%
You have to ask yourself which scenario is most likely. Of course those are round numbers and extreme examples. But if it spreads a lot more than thought, then the mortality is lower, or deaths are being hidden, or some of both.
And it apparently has a zoonotic affinity. So there’ll be a pool of it here to mutate, reemerge in humans.
If there are 400,000 cases instead of 40,000 and only 1,000 deaths, that's 0.25% If there are 40,000 and only 1,000 deaths, that's 2.5% Or 400,000 cases, and 10,000 deaths of which they have only announced 1,000 and hidden the rest. In that case mortality is 2.5%
You have to ask yourself which scenario is most likely. Of course those are round numbers and extreme examples. But if it spreads a lot more than thought, then the mortality is lower, or deaths are being hidden, or some of both.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-who-team-idUSKBN2030QX
The WHO group has left for China.
Unfortunately it’s led by a Canadian (though has CDC members).
O Canada! We may end up building a wall in the north if they keep bowing to China.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.