Posted on 01/25/2020 7:49:27 AM PST by Mariner
Here is a link to a daily report being done on the worlwide spread of the disease:
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https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/01/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/
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There are the beginning rumors that this was a lab created disease. Not likely, as 6 of the first 7 patients were vendors at the Wuhan seafood market . They sell bats there for food.
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This virus shares 80% of the SARS virus, its closest relative. It has a 96% match with a known virus in fruit bats. Snakes are not the origin.
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This virus is much weaker than SARS but has some unusual traits. It is an RNA rather than a DNA virus like smallpox. That means that it mutates very quickly. Current patients are showing a 4th generation mutation from the original patients amonth ago.
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That makes vaccines very difficult to be effective.
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The new virus also has a very high binding energy to human tissue, about 4 times higher than SARS. That means that infection is far more likely when exposed. In fact, there are about 40% new patients every day, that is extraordinary.
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As usual, vulnerable people are more likely to die. Most people will be able to quickly fight off the virus.
If this is anywhere near as bad as it's starting to seem - - we're blessed President Trump started the process of bringing back basic industries and protecting our borders.
And further blessed because President Trump chose to become energy independent.
I'm guessing this virus will spread to densely populated countries like India and third world countries with inadequate health care facilities.
Because of Trump's foresight we'll be spared the worst of the economic fallout... and we'll become a safe place for the world to park their money until this blows over. In short, in a worst case scenario, we'll ride this out because of President Trump's decision to shore up our basics.
It could be a bioweapon.
But it need not be.
Western countries separate the animal pen (feces and earth and all other body fluids), from slaughter. And further separates slaughter from market consumers.
And the people involved in each process rarely have contact. And there are fairly strict regimes and record keeping along the way, along with spot inspections for verification.
In China it’s all mixed together in the same place and there are no inspection, and fewer rules.
China is the perfect soup for zoonotic viral evolution and refinement.
None better could be designed by the best scientists.
By contrast, the American death rate for flu was 24 per 100,000 people in 2018.
Maybe there wasn't enough hype over Ebola. / sarc
One of our biggest concerns is idiots like CNN reporters trying to break into quarantined cities for first hand reports.
Let’s hope this isn’t a Stephen King horror.
“There are the beginning rumors that this was a lab created disease. Not likely, as 6 of the first 7 patients were vendors at the Wuhan seafood market . They sell bats there for food.”
You can’t say “Not likely”
Black Agnes pointed out ways that a bioweapon could be released into the wild via poor construction. And I will say once again, Fort Detrick was shut down INDEFINITELY in August by the CDC over unsafe conditions for biohazards.
Another poster said she saw something where Commies tried to steal this exact virus from us. I am going to have find that article later. We know that US had the virus man made in the lab in 2015 in Chapel Hill . It was allowed because it started before a moratorium on such research.
What you can say is that it might or might not be a bioweapon.
What I can say is that the response by China is indicative they know it is a bioweapon.
And I can say their bioweapon lab might or might not be the point of origin.
Apparently, there is an area of China that is known for Ground Zero of types of things for the reasons that you state..and probably other reasons..but it is not this Province.
But the point is the same.
I think it is important for US to figure out if it is a manufactured virus versus not man made...although perhaps it makes no difference in treatment.
Perhaps it is now not relevant in figuring out a vaccine or treatment. Not my expertise.
Although, CIA should be figuring out if it is was an intentional release.
“They’re doing it anyways and being public about it.”
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Yup - tho the CCP’s first actions was to arrest and silence anyone talking/writing about it. Even now, on China’s social media any posts-comments that are less than sunshiny are taken down,
I hope the virus dies down before too long but does help the Chinese people to realize their government is not on their side. Hoping for an overthrow of the CCP is probably a bit too much too hope for - but it would be nice!
There has got to be more than just 41 people die from the disease for them to be using that kind of language.
“The RO has been reported anywhere from 1.9 to 3.8. “
i had to look that one up, turns out it’s R0, not RO ...
Too late.
Could be, hope not.
I’d hate to have to depend on any government in a serious epidemic-type situation, but having only the CCP to depend on would really suck. Poor people.
Gee...wonder if the Leftists here will figure out this is why you don’t let every Tran, Dik, and Jose in the country.
I might take that bet and would lose happily if it is the case. In fact you have a bet!!!!!!!!!!!
I don't want FR to get a rep as a site that bets on death. It isn't in our character to take advantage of a bad situation.
However, my true intent isn't for FR to profit from death but for Deplorables to be rational empiricists who are driven by fact vs fear (most of the time). I think we lose our minds in these situations. But I also am not perfect and, as null says, when The Big One hits, we will probably miss it. The price of freedom is eternal vigilance. Finally, I WANT to be right, but only because I don't want masses of innocent people dying in a pandemic.
Would it be immoral to set up a sub-FReepathon where people pledge to the site an amount over and above that which they'd pledge otherwise, if the death rate from this thing in China exceeds the US flu annualized death rate of 24 per 100,000 people, by the end of March 2020?
“Someone else brought up....the death rate is fairly low. You need some disease or health issue already existing (like COPD or lung disease), to get your chances of death to a high point.”
that’s what we’ve been wondering about ... most of these sorts of viral things are generally mortal in the presence of other pre-existing condition(s) ... the question we’ve been asking ourselves is: what are those pre-existing conditions? ... It seems like it might take a few more days until enough data is gathered and analyzed before that is widely known ...
“CIA should be figuring out if it is was an intentional release.”
I have no doubt they are working on it, in addition to assessing the stability of the Chinese regime.
This is the kind of thing that brings down authoritarian governments. Or any government for that matter.
I would tend to think if it was intentional, it wasn’t China’s government. Their situation is somewhat precarious right now.
If man made, it was probably a leak.
But it doesn’t have to be man made by any means.
But is Ebola still circulating there?
Is that outbreak over entirely?
Because if it’s still circulating there it isn’t over.
As long as it isn’t over, the chance it could break containment exists.
“...all inter-provincial (interstate) road passenger transport into/from Beijing will be shut down indefinitely...”
If the Chinese government sees the need for a quarantine, then why doesn’t the United States implement one, rather than importing potential cases all over this country at 600 mph.
Yer preaching to the choir - the borders need to shut down even without any health reasons, as far as I’m concerned.
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