I think he will, and possibly much more, maybe even 45%..................
Like the man said..... it’s about counting the votes
A non vote, an unvote, an absent vote is in effect a trump vote. The number in my mind is 12%. If the Black turnout is >12% for Trump he wins.
If the Black turnout for the Democrat is say <90 % of those eligible, Trump wins. By being unable to pull the Trump lever but staying at home or work. Trump gets the vote any way.
Any marginal loss of black democrat vote means defeat.
That means in this election, the Black vote is more important than impeachment
I want some of what you're smokin'!