Best Case for Dems was 15 states and DC.. with impeachment, they won’t probably won’t get 10.
They know this, this whole impeachment thing is NOT about Trump... the sooner your realize this the more you can enjoy the show.
This entire cycle for the Democrats, is about kneecapping the far left part of their base... It has NOTHING to do with Trump. They know they can’t win, (at least the smart ones do) however if Biden (or someone like him) runs and loses 15 - 35 the radical left will just grow in influence as they will argue “SEE! WE NEED TO GO FURTHER LEFT”... If however you put up a whackadoo leftist and they lose huge, that entire argument gets chopped off at the knees and the radical left loses influence and the party moderates for 2024 when they actually have a shot at winning.
So, how do you do this? Well launch an inquiry that is really about tarring Biden, and ensure he’s done.. and that you get a radical whackadoo as the nominee, while at the same time turning the Incumbents base enthusiasm up to DEFCON 5. Which is EXACTLY what this whole impeachment nonsense will do.
So you wind up with Warren, or some other far far left whackadoo.. Completley piss off the middle with a nonsense impeachment, and your whackadoo leftist goes down in flames.... The far left of the party’s argument is done... they lose influence, and the party moderates for the real battle in 2024.
My guess is Trump will indeed go on the offensive in OR, at the very least in 2020... and probably fight for more of those other states... because he’s going to be so solid everywhere else, that he will take the fight to any state he got around 40-45% of the vote, and may just surprise in a few of them.
My bet is Trump will win every state he took in 16, and most if not all states he got over 45% of the vote in 16, and will take the battle, as I said to the states where he got around 40-45% of the vote, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he managed to pick one or two of them off as well.
That may be their strategy. If so it is destined to FAIL.
Socialism is the destiny of their party. 90% of their young voters have totally consumed the Kool-Aid.
There IS NO up-and-coming constituency for Joe Biden 2.0 in that party. And young radicals raised on Alinsky will simply not be kneecapped.
That's one state, Nevada.
What are the five to ten states you expect them to flip?
I think you are right here.
The smart ones (Yes; there are some) in the Dem party have to position themselves for 2024; given that they believe 2020 is a lost cause by now.
They doubt that the Conservatives can come up with yet another Trump type candidate 5 years from now, so their chance to get back in POWER is then.