Turkey threatens solo army operation into northeast Syria

Turkey’s president, in his strongest warning yet, threatened Saturday to launch a military operation into northeastern Syria, where U.S. troops are deployed and have been trying to defuse tensions between Washington’s two allies — Turkey and the Syrian Kurds.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s threats were a warning that a U.S.-Turkish deal to secure Syria’s troubled border with Turkey was faltering. He said a Turkish military operation against the U.S-backed Kurdish forces could begin “maybe today, maybe tomorrow.”

The Turkish military has been dispatching units and defense equipment to southeastern Sanliurfa province in the past month. Erdogan had expressed frustration, threatening a unilateral operation, but this was his most specific threat amid concerns from the Syrian Kurdish forces of a limited military operation.

Some are reading the Trump administration as thiking that a likely warning to Turkey from the U.S. may be a threat to pull out all U.S. special forces from their work with the Kurds in Syria.

There is one problem with that, if U.S. policies are going to be consistent.

To be consistent, it is not U.S. actions with the Kurds that might threaten a possible clash with forces from Turkey, in Syria. It is Turkey’s go it alone threats to invade northern Syria that can produce possible clashes between Turkish forces and U.S. special forces with the Kurds.

Threatening to remove U.S. special forces working with the Kurds would be inconsistent with the objectives of the U.S. and the Kurds in northern Syria, which is continuing to work against the ISIS and Al Queda forces trying to take refuge there away from Asad’s forces. That Kurdish U.S. alliance had prodcued the most successful force against ISIS in northern Syria. U.S. policy would be in grave question in the entire region, to abandon that to accomadate Erdogan.

And I amd not certain in the first place that Erdogan would see such a U.S. action as a threat.

Those that make that suggestion are reasoning that U.S. leaving northern Syria would place any Erdogan incoming forces into possible clashes with the Russians.

I don’t believe that. Turkey is already beceoming a client of Russian missile systems and I think both Turkey and Russia are looking for long term accomodation with each other. I think the most likely outcome would not be clashes between Turkey and Russian forces, or even with Assad forces. I think Turkey, Russia and Assad would make an arrangement letting Turkey into Syria knowing that what Turkey will do is NOT go after ISIS, but MOP UP the Kurds.

I think the most effective threat Trump could deliver to Erdogan would be not the removal of U.S. forces from Syria, but the threat to remove U.S. forces from Turkey and a request Turkey be booted from NATO. I would add that the savings from doing that could be poored into the support for the Kurds in Syria. Letting Turkey know we would not merely NOT get out of their way in northern Syria, we would boost the Kurdish forces there as well.

I think that would end Erdogan’s adventures in northern Syria.

Beware perfidious Turkey, a most unreliable “ally” and uncertain “friend”.

No, Mr. Erdogan, you may NOT re-establish the Ottoman Empire. Not even Allah wants that, the supremacy of Iran must not be challenged.

The Turks should get their heads right. March on China and free your Uighur brothers in western China.

The Silk Road beckons....

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