Posted on 09/02/2019 7:50:54 AM PDT by NautiNurse
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Hurricane Dorian: the gift that keeps on giving. It ain’t over yet...
BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 57
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 07 2019
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING INTO SOUTHWESTERN NOVA
SCOTIA...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA LATER
TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
Winds up to 100 mph
1. Regardless of whether it is a hurricane or a post-tropical
cyclone, Dorian is expected to have a significant impact in portions
of eastern Canada beginning during the next several hours. Dangerous
storm surge impacts are likely in portions of the Gulf of St.
Lawrence, southwestern Newfoundland and eastern Nova Scotia.
Hurricane-force winds are also likely in Nova Scotia, Prince Edward
Island and Newfoundland later today and tonight. Refer to
information from the Canadian Hurricane Centre for more information
on these hazards.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/1800Z 42.8N 64.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 45.1N 63.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
24H 08/1200Z 48.9N 59.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 09/0000Z 51.7N 54.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 09/1200Z 54.2N 47.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED
Winds up to 100 mph
1. Regardless of whether it is a hurricane or a post-tropical
cyclone, Dorian is expected to have a significant impact in portions
of eastern Canada beginning during the next several hours. Dangerous
storm surge impacts are likely in portions of the Gulf of St.
Lawrence, southwestern Newfoundland and eastern Nova Scotia.
Hurricane-force winds are also likely in Nova Scotia, Prince Edward
Island and Newfoundland later today and tonight. Refer to
information from the Canadian Hurricane Centre for more information
on these hazards.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/1800Z 42.8N 64.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 45.1N 63.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
24H 08/1200Z 48.9N 59.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 09/0000Z 51.7N 54.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 09/1200Z 54.2N 47.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED
Hurricane Dorian Special Discussion Number 58
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
200 PM AST Sat Sep 07 2019
This special advisory is being issued instead of the normal
intermediate advisory to update the intensity and wind radii of
Dorian. A recent ASCAT-B overpass shows a large area of hurricane-
force winds southwest and south of the center of Dorian, with many
vectors of 80 kt or more. This area of wind is likely due to
baroclinic effects during the ongoing extratropical transition.
The initial intensity is being increased to 85 kt and the 12-h
intensity to 75 kt, after which the forecast intensities are the
same as in the previous advisory. Some changes were also made to
the initial and 12-h wind radii based on the scatterometer data.
Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
705 PM AST Sat Sep 07 2019
...DORIAN MAKES LANDFALL OVER NOVA SCOTIA...
Satellite and surface observations indicate that the center of
Dorian has made landfall at 615 PM AST (2215 UTC) near Sambro Creek
in Nova Scotia, Canada, or about 15 miles (25 km) south of Halifax.
The estimated maximum sustained winds at landfall were 100 mph (155
km/h), and the estimated central pressure was 958 mb (28.29 inches).
SUMMARY OF 705 PM AST...2305 UTC...INFORMATION
$$
Forecaster Blake/Avila
BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Advisory Number 61
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 AM AST Sun Sep 08 2019
...POWERFUL DORIAN HEADING TOWARD NEWFOUNDLAND...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
I don’t want regular Canadians to suffer, but I can’t help but think the Trump Curse is in effect because the canuck former prime said she hoped Dorian would hit Mar a Lago.
A storm for the record books. The storm name Dorian will be retired, no doubt about it.
Yes, Dorian won’t be forgotten.
Now I’m curious to return to Dorian Thread I to review your screen captures of predictions. Which forecasters got it right and what did they factor into their thinking? Post-hurricane analysis, at least this one, will be something for students of meteorology to study.
Thank you, Miss NautiNurse, for keeping FreeRepublic on track this storm. For once, we didn’t splinter off into side conversations (arguments, lol) because of your judicious and fair counsel.
RIP, to all the lost souls under rubble and swept out to sea. And to those whose memories of lost loved ones haunt them, may they rest comfortably in time.
For once the word “epic” isn’t hyperbole. Dorian has been that and more.
The nightmare in the Bahamas is awful and there doesn’t seem to be clarity on how many have died or are missing.
So much confusion and it seems the authorities are overwhelmed.
That’s how it goes, seems like every time.
Cities and government train to recover from disaster, using the equipment, logistics, and infrastructure that’s in place BEFORE the storm.
Storm knocks out a key facility or two, the road network, the airport, and comms networks, and they become helpless.
Can’t open the roads due to no comms. Can’t work around a damaged key installation or command center, due to closed road net.
Air assets waiting to fly in, but ATC or a runway down, they all run in circles chasing their tails for days, until the outcry and global shame forces them into a brute force approach, with outside help.
Realistic preps are the key.
“Nice new billion dollar mobile command post?”
Park it. Storm knocked the sat dish and gennie out. Make it all work, anyway.
No doubt. Glad it is finally gone. Unless it reforms over the Arctic Circle and heads for Russia...
Horrible. I hope nobody was killed or injured because of that crane collapse.
Dorian is The Storm That Refuses to Die:
Dorian cleanup sees Nova Scotia Power facing largest outage in company history
I'm so glad all of our FReepers FRiends are safe and sound. Prayers continue for the people of the Bahamas...
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