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How Roy Moore Could Actually Win Alabama’s Republican Senate Primary
FiveThirtyEight ^ | Live Blog: Women’s World Cup Jun. 20, 2019 | Geoffrey Skelley

Posted on 06/24/2019 10:19:09 AM PDT by Texan4Life

A large primary field may fragment the vote, making it unlikely that a candidate could win a majority and avoid a runoff and making it easier for Moore to advance to a runoff with only the support of his base.

The point is that Moore does have a path — especially a path to a primary runoff if there’s a crowded GOP field. And if he does get there, he would be only one step away from a rematch with Jones.

Moore would still have a decent chance of winning a general election in conservative Alabama, and that is surely a big part of why he’s running again.

(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Alabama
KEYWORDS: alabama; marajadetroll; primary; republican; senate
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To: marajade

Done ? Yes, you certainly are, ma’am.


321 posted on 06/24/2019 4:47:27 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (Who will think of the gerbils ? Just say no to Buttgiggity !)
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To: Conserv

DU calls, n00b. Take your Demonrat talking points and hit the bricks.


322 posted on 06/24/2019 4:48:40 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (Who will think of the gerbils ? Just say no to Buttgiggity !)
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To: DiogenesLamp

Give it up. He’s not going to be the nominee. People know better.

BTW, I could just as easily accuse you two of being part of his campaign team.


323 posted on 06/24/2019 4:49:11 PM PDT by Conserv
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To: DiogenesLamp

Conserv = N00b troll keyboard commando.


324 posted on 06/24/2019 4:49:29 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (Who will think of the gerbils ? Just say no to Buttgiggity !)
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To: fieldmarshaldj
The Barbour-Cochran Machine RINOs worked to flood the primary runoff with Black Democrat voters to prevent McDaniel’s win. Sickening.

I am aware of that. Years ago I met Haley Barbour and shook his hand, and I would have never thought he would have done such a thing.

Yes, what they did to McDaniel should have caused some heads to roll.

No doubt the Shelby Machine in AL used that as a template for the general special.

I think there is behind the scenes collusion between Democrats and the Republican establishment in Washington to torpedo challengers to the big money spending party in DC.

They absolutely do not want reform candidates to win, and both sides cooperate to destroy them.

I think a corrupt cabal of Washington DC "deep state" influence peddlers really run things in Washington DC.

The Congress is just for show.

We see this evil cabal doing everything of which they can think to take out Trump, so why would it be hard to believe they will take out reform challengers?

As a matter of fact, the race was deliberately nationalized by the media in an effort to damage Trump. There is a reason so much national focus was put on this race, and that's because they wanted it to portray it as a rebuke of Donald Trump.

325 posted on 06/24/2019 4:51:49 PM PDT by DiogenesLamp ("of parents owing allegiance to no o<ither sovereignty.")
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To: fieldmarshaldj

DU calls, n00b. Take your Demonrat talking points and hit the bricks.


Lame. Try a little harder, honey.


326 posted on 06/24/2019 4:54:02 PM PDT by Conserv
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To: Conserv
Well, I appreciate your honesty... and the fact that you’re not trying to re-write history.

I call things as I see them, and Akin should have never answered that question the way he did. He should have known better.

Even so, without the media power against him, it wouldn't have mattered.

In the USA, the media manipulate elections to help Democrats, and I believe they do so because people who actually own the media companies make a lot more money when liberals are freely spending the taxpayer money.

327 posted on 06/24/2019 4:54:34 PM PDT by DiogenesLamp ("of parents owing allegiance to no o<ither sovereignty.")
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To: Conserv; DiogenesLamp
Akin made a serious mistake and the media exploited it to ruin him.

Well, I appreciate your honesty... and the fact that you’re not trying to re-write history.

To properly understand Akin's remark, one has to acknowledge that Akin mastered in divinity and conservative interpretation of scripture.

As a 24-term representative (12 state and 12 federal), he understood the need to compromise when representing people of diverse faiths (that's the liberal religious litmus test of conservatives, right?). The MSM is always trying to trip up Republicans over abortion, and especially Christians.

Akin was probably trying to separate what I'll call "Sunday morning remorse" after a Saturday one-night stand. Claims of rape (at the time) were really women who had regrets after sleeping with a guy. "Legitimate rape" was an awkward way of saying that a real forceful rape is what he was willing to accept as a justification for an abortion, as a compromise for his deeply held religious belief.

It wasn't a "serious mistake" but it was enough for the media to play up. You have to put it into the media context of what else was happening. Foster Friess was a conservative big donor who funded religious and conservative candidates. In 2012 he was a big donor to Rick Santorum. When during an interview with NBC's Andrea Mitchell the subject of contraception came up (remember when Stephanopoulos brought it up again during the Republican primary debates?) , Friess made a joke of it, referring to "old wives tales" that the best contraception was putting an aspirin between your knees.

This was also around the same time that Rush Limbaugh made his comments about Sandra Fluke wanting taxpayer funded contraception. As far as the MSM was concerned, there was chum in the waters and the sharks were ready to devour anything that crossed their paths.

So, we had Limbaugh/Fluke, Santorum/Friess, and then Akin, all building up on the media's theme of "war against women" that would eventually land on Romney during the Presidential debates.

Akin was roadkill on the way to Romney. He was not an "idiot." But he was a sacrifice that a feckless GOP that was afraid of its own shadow was ready to toss aside.

And that's NOT rewriting history, it's teaching it.

-PJ

328 posted on 06/24/2019 4:54:52 PM PDT by Political Junkie Too (The 1st Amendment gives the People the right to a free press, not CNN the right to the 1st question.)
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To: Texan4Life

McConnell/RINo’s/GOPe won’t be able to focus their dollars like the last time when it was a special election. There will be additional priorities competing for those dollars during the primaries and general election.Roy has decent chances to win.
.
besides sending Roy a few bucks another thing we can do to help tie up RNC dollars (keeping them away from Jones campaign) is to support credible conservative candidates in the R primaries when running against GOPe .
RINO targets are plentiful in 2020!

1) McConnell
Gardner
Risch
Cornyn
Capito
Ernst
Cassidy
Hyde-Smith
McSally
sasse
Daines
Tillis
Graham
Rounds
Enzi

remember the YEARBOOK FORGER!


329 posted on 06/24/2019 4:56:23 PM PDT by CarolinaReaganFan
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To: Reily
I am told he used illegally “state/court funds” to rebuild, re-enforce, etc. that 10 Commandments monument. Funds that were not legislated to do such a thing. If true that’s theft!

They aren't upset about the funds. They could care less about the money, they were looking for any excuse to get rid of him, and that just happened to be it.

When he ran for election to the Alabama Supreme Court in 2012, the entire Alabama judiciary took out a full page ad in all the major Alabama newspapers urging voters to vote for the Democrat. The Alabama judiciary hated Moore.

Moore won anyway, and I believe he actually won more votes than did Richard Shelby when he ran in 2010. Just checked it. Yes, Moore won with over a Million votes, while Shelby only got 967,861.

330 posted on 06/24/2019 4:59:42 PM PDT by DiogenesLamp ("of parents owing allegiance to no o<ither sovereignty.")
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To: DiogenesLamp

If a republican candidate isn’t aware that the media is out to get him/her, then that person has no business running.


331 posted on 06/24/2019 5:00:18 PM PDT by Conserv
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To: McGavin999
I have stated numerous times that I wish he would let it go, but I suspect he won't. The Republican voters of Alabama will have to decide on this, and I will support whatever they chose to do.
332 posted on 06/24/2019 5:01:18 PM PDT by DiogenesLamp ("of parents owing allegiance to no o<ither sovereignty.")
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To: sport

+1.


333 posted on 06/24/2019 5:02:14 PM PDT by DiogenesLamp ("of parents owing allegiance to no o<ither sovereignty.")
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To: DiogenesLamp

Ok

Still think it’s a chance not worth taking.
It’s Alabama’s decision not mine.
My problem is Gov. James Justice & Manchin.


334 posted on 06/24/2019 5:02:30 PM PDT by Reily
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To: DiogenesLamp

You’re absolutely right. There is collusion. How else would we have had a party descend to the point that it was blindly nominating establishment puppets and Derp Staters indistinguishable from the Demonrats like the Bush family horror, McQueeg and Willard the Rat. They were all set to put up El “Please Clap” Jebbe as the third ringer in a row to “graciously lose” to his adoptive sister, the Butcheress of Benghazi. Trump shut that crap down.


335 posted on 06/24/2019 5:03:30 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (Who will think of the gerbils ? Just say no to Buttgiggity !)
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To: fieldmarshaldj; marajade
And something which would have ruled in his favor if it were before a court today.

Just look at the recent rulings on historical symbols that don't proselytize, like monument crosses, headstone symbols, and Ten Commandment imagery (like what exists in the carvings on the Supreme Court building itself.

-PJ

336 posted on 06/24/2019 5:03:35 PM PDT by Political Junkie Too (The 1st Amendment gives the People the right to a free press, not CNN the right to the 1st question.)
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To: Political Junkie Too
They did the same thing to Richard Mourdock and Christine O'Donnell. It doesn't matter that outsider candidates flub a trick question, it matters that they're conservative and not liberal in how the flub is covered.

This! I've discussed this before, and i've pointed out half a dozen Democrat morons and idiots who would have been utterly destroyed by the media if they had been Republicans, but who are completely protected because the media cover for them.

The media manipulate elections, and they do so deliberately.

And I believe this power should be take away from them.

337 posted on 06/24/2019 5:04:29 PM PDT by DiogenesLamp ("of parents owing allegiance to no o<ither sovereignty.")
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To: Conserv
Cortez, Tlaib, Omar, Akin, and Moore are all idiots....

Why don't we add you to the list, based on the depth of your critical thinking displayed here.

Scratch a nerve, and we get ad hominem. That's not very deep thinking in my book.

-PJ

338 posted on 06/24/2019 5:05:38 PM PDT by Political Junkie Too (The 1st Amendment gives the People the right to a free press, not CNN the right to the 1st question.)
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To: fieldmarshaldj; HamiltonJay
Moore would stomp Sessions by reminding Alabamans that he did NOTHING during his two years as Attorney General instead of taking out the Derp State Coup Plotters. Why would Alabamans reward someone like that ?
That would seem to be a problem. Trump has called his Sessions nomination “a mistake.” Which would seem to moot Trump’s opposition to the risk of a Moore nomination.

339 posted on 06/24/2019 5:06:22 PM PDT by conservatism_IS_compassion (Socialism is cynicism directed towards society and - correspondingly - naivete towards government.)
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To: marajade
Give it up. Moore is a loser. Even Trump doesn’t want him to run.

Trump endorsed Luther Strange. Trump flubbed that one, because Luther Strange was involved in a serious corruption scandal with the Governor, and most of the people in Alabama knew it, though Trump did not.

Did it never occur to you to wonder why Luther Strange didn't get the nomination in spite of being endorsed by Trump? Or do you just believe the crap the media people spew out?

340 posted on 06/24/2019 5:06:39 PM PDT by DiogenesLamp ("of parents owing allegiance to no o<ither sovereignty.")
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