Posted on 05/30/2019 2:58:36 AM PDT by Beautiful_Gracious_Skies
Expert analysts expect president to win second term despite low poll numbers
President Donald Trump has never been able to reach a 50% job-approval rating in mainstream opinion surveys, a historically poor polling performance for a commander-in-chief.
Doesn’t matter. He’s still on his way to re-election, say seasoned political data analysts.
Yale professor Ray Fair’s long-established political model relies on the economy -- specifically the gdp and inflation... Former Obama Admin. official Steven Rattner pointed out this week that, according Fair’s model, “Mr. Trump’s vote share would ordinarily be as high as 56.1 %. But that’s before factoring in his personality.” Even with Trump’s temperament pulling down his total, he’ll still win, the Yale Model concludes. His vote should end up at about 54 %. His Democratic opponent is expected to get only 45.4 %.
American University professor Allan Lichtman,... in 2016 predicted Trump would win, has come to the same conclusion.... His method involves examining 13 determinants ranging from whether there’s a serious third-party candidate to the health of the economy. “Trump wins again in 2020 unless six of 13 key factors turn against him,”... Currently, the President is down only three keys: Republican losses in the [2018] midterm elections, the lack of a foreign policy success, and the president’s limited appeal to voters.”
Lichtman, who has correctly predicted every presidential election for more than three decades, believes impeachment would be another “key” counting against Trump, even though polls indicate the American people don’t want the U.S. House of Representatives to impeach the president.
Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi has run 12 models that look at “economic trends at the state level” to predict the upcoming presidential election. Trump triumphs in all of them. “If the election were held today,” ... “Trump would win according to the models -- and pretty handily.... He’s got low gas prices, low unemployment and a lot of other political variables at his back. The only exception is his popularity, which matters a lot. If that falls off a cliff it would make a big difference.”
Another modeler, Trend Macrolytics’ Donald Luskin, also has concluded that President Trump will romp to victory next year. The hyper-partisan political environment in the U.S. means that most votes are essentially locked in for one candidate or the other...
Independents, along with the small number of disaffected Republicans and Democrats, likely will direct the 2020 election result. Incumbency --- historically has proven a powerful advantage, and the state of the economy often drives voters who are not unswerving partisans.
He's Made America Great Again; Voters know it.
They want more of it; more Trump!
L8r
How much would you bet that Trump would ( if he runs ) win ? I would not bet the change in my pocket .
True or not, the sudden rash of these stories is designed to dampen our turnout and motivate liberals. Don’t believe the hype, and plan for the hardest election ever.
Lichtman, believes impeachment would be another “key” counting against Trump, even though polls indicate the American people don’t want it.
hmmm.
“the sudden rash of these stories is designed to dampen our turnout ...”
That’s why they put out fake polls in 2016. It only strenghened our resolve and motivated us to turn out in droves. Same thing will happen in 2020. Now, factoring in Rat-engineered voter fraud — THAT will be a problem.
Most of us hang up on posters. They will never have the correct whole numbers ever
I hope the liberals double down on their identity politics and choke on their delusional Trump hatred. Many people didn’t like Obama’s politics but they didn’t go insane.
Those polls definitely motivated us, but they showed us losing. All these recent stories out, projecting the election now, show us winning, which could have the opposite effect if we’re not careful.
The basic nature of writing is to plant thoughts in the reader’s head. Whenever I read anything political, my first actual thought is who is writing this. My second is why would they want me to believe it. That’s where the true story usually lies.
LOL!
Did they say that with a straight face?
I never get calls from posters. I wish some of y’all would call me, but no one ever does. :-(
I do occasionally get calls from pollsters, but I hang up on them.
;->
“American University professor Allan Lichtman,... in 2016 predicted Trump would win, has come to the same conclusion....
Lichtman, who has correctly predicted every presidential election for more than three decades, believes impeachment would be another “key” counting against Trump, even though polls indicate the American people don’t want the U.S. House of Representatives to impeach the president.” Lichtman was FORCED to recant before the 2016 election - taken to woodshed and beaten until he admitted his “error” By saying YES to impeachment he is buying some protection from the thugs. He knows impeachment will kill the rats but he doesn’t want them breaking his window and following him to the supermarket.
He did get over 50% approval recently.
Does this model take the destruction of the electoral college into account.
But only stupid blue states did this, correct? So, CA and NV will have to put their EV’s toward Trump if he wins the popular vote, right? If not, they still would have gone blue anyway.
When it is said that president’s poll numbers are low, what does that mean? Whose poll numbers? Who says a poll can’t be made to show anything you want to? Considering who is the known opposition, why would any reasonable voter not consider Mr. Trump to be the only reasonable & viable candidate?
It’s a gamble. Voter fraud in California will be at an all time high with illegals voting and ballot harvesting. So the popular vote numbers from California will be at an all time high.
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