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India Shot Down A Satellite. What Does That Mean For The Rest Of The World?
Hotair ^
| 03/27/2019
| Jazz Shaw
Posted on 03/27/2019 8:10:19 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
There’s a new member of an exclusive space race club this week. India announced that they successfully shot down a small satellite in low Earth orbit. But if you think this is a reason for anyone other than India to celebrate, you’ll probably want to reconsider that idea. (The Independent)
India has shot down a live satellite in space as part of a successful test of new missile technology, prime minister Narendra Modi has announced.
The operation, dubbed Mission Shakti, makes India part of a super league of nations to have achieved such a feat, Mr Modi said, alongside the US, Russia and China.
The announcement comes weeks after India engaged in aerial clashes with Pakistan over the disputed border of Kashmir. This new technology is not directed against any particular country, the prime minister said.
The first two logistical questions that leap to mind have already been answered and this didn’t turn out to be a worst case scenario. India didn’t shoot down somebody else’s live satellite. It was one of their own and it was probably launched fairly recently precisely for this purpose. The other troubling idea was that they were blowing up a satellite and dumping even more high-velocity junk into orbit. They didn’t. This bird was low enough that it will allegedly fall into the atmosphere and burn up in a few weeks.
But even with those concerns out of the way, this is still a troubling development, even if India is one of our allies. The number of countries with anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons technology is increasing. Both Russia and the United States have had this capability since the 80s, and China joined the club in 2007. Now that India has a proven ASAT missile, how long do you suppose it will be before Pakistan, North Korea and Iran will want these toys as well?
The problem is that we’re entering a period when skeet shooting satellites may be seen as an indirect, non-lethal option for a military strike or counterstrike. Since you’re not literally burning up cities and killing lots of people (at least directly), a tense conflict situation could turn into a prolonged game of low-orbit whack-a-mole. And we don’t have any sort of defensive capabilities for our satellites, so the only “proportional response” would probably be to shoot down more of theirs. (Whoever “they” wind up being in this scenario.)
The problem is that we’ve grown so heavily dependent on our fleet of space birds that if a bunch of them start blowing up we’re going to be in serious trouble. GPS stops working at that point and we rely on that for a lot more than just keeping Google Maps updated in our cars. Communications, defense, emergency response, and medical networks are all affected, just to name a few. We’d also be back to guessing where hurricanes are and where they might hit without those capabilities.
The waiting list to build and launch new satellites is ridiculous at this point even with Elon Musk putting up reusable rockets every few weeks. There’s supposedly been a treaty in place for many decades prohibiting this sort of offensive technology, but it seems that’s gone out the window. Unless we want to take a massive technological step backward, we should probably consider getting all the countries with ASAT technology in a room someplace and discussing a new treaty.
TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: asat; india; missionshakti; narendramodi; satellite; spaceexploration; spaceforce
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To: TexasGator
Re: It means you didnt read the article!
Incorrect.
It means:
(1) I don't believe the Indian claim that the satellite was "so low" that all the debris will eventually burn up in the atmosphere.
(2) Even if it was that “low,” it still means that a gajillion pieces of metal are currently orbiting the Earth at 18,000 mph, and will not fall out of orbit for weeks or months.
To: TexasGator; zeestephen
"It means you didnt read the article!"
From the article:
"The other troubling idea was that they were blowing up a satellite and dumping even more high-velocity junk into orbit. They didnt. This bird was low enough that it will allegedly fall into the atmosphere and burn up in a few weeks."
Let's suppose that this third-world country properly calculated the orbital decay and trajectory of the scattering debris field from the explosion and this "high-velocity junk" doesn't remain in orbit. It will have to fall back to earth at some point. While it is randomly descending in a million pieces (not like a large, intact space station that will retain more of a pattern as it reenters the atmosphere and can be tracked) - who knows how much will remain intact, what commercial airliners it may impact on the way down, and where the debris will land?
There are strategic reasons for a test like this - both scientific and political. But it reminds me a little bit of the revelry that took place on New Year's Eve in Dallas from a neighborhood right next to where I lived that had a particular concentration of people from elsewhere who celebrated by randomly firing guns into the air - and where she stopped - nobody cared.
Until they did.
Performing such an act is blatant disregard for the entire population of earth IMHO. Yes - China needs someone to jerk a knot in their tail. There are better ways. Thankfully there's a new sheriff on the world's stage and I'm confident that President Trump will do what's necessary when the situation requires it.
22
posted on
03/27/2019 9:48:09 PM PDT
by
uncommonsense
(Liberals see what they believe; Conservatives believe what they see.)
To: zeestephen
It means a gajillion tiny pieces of metal are flying every which way around planet Earth at 18,000 mph. Yeah that is about right. Good work. :-)
To: SeekAndFind
Big deal. The militarization of space puts all of our satellites at risk. The Chinese have been investing lots of money in anti-satellite technology. Now even India has this capability. Are the Iranians next?
24
posted on
03/27/2019 10:03:25 PM PDT
by
kabar
To: Clutch Martin
Going back to shortwave might be necessary if the regressive left manages to seize control. Receivers with today’s technology would make it easier than ever for non radio people to tune in. Unfortunately, counter measures will also be better than ever. A network of SDR receivers with AI behind them would be able to almost instantly detect and locate a station when it popped up. It would be ironic if patriotic Americans depended upon radio stations based in Russia, or perhaps Russian satellites in orbit, to get straight information.
25
posted on
03/27/2019 10:10:57 PM PDT
by
beef
(Caution: Potential Sarcasm - Process Accordingly)
To: SeekAndFind
It means there’s one less satellite...
26
posted on
03/27/2019 10:14:56 PM PDT
by
bigbob
(Trust Trump. Trust the Plan.)
To: SeekAndFind
It means no one is laughing at Trumps Space Force
27
posted on
03/27/2019 10:44:16 PM PDT
by
Bommer
(Help 2ndDivisionVet - https://www.gofundme.com/mvc.php?route=category&term=married-recent-amputecan')
To: SeekAndFind; Chode; Squantos; snooter55; Lockbox; carriage_hill; SkyDancer; Delta 21; All
Our ATM’s, Credit/Debit Cards and Banking also use GPS.
IMAGINE the Panic and Chaos...
28
posted on
03/27/2019 11:06:47 PM PDT
by
mabarker1
(Congress- the opposite of PROGRESS!!!)
To: mabarker1
Good point to keep in mind when you hear the globalist types talking about eliminating currency...
Everybody needs a Plan B.
29
posted on
03/27/2019 11:20:30 PM PDT
by
cgbg
(Democracy dies in darkness when Bezos bans books.)
To: All
Railway networks were setup and owned by various companies. The refuel points were critical to the reliability or credibility of said networks.
In 2120, out in space, will the refuel points will have to be fortified? Remember that the lesson of big expeditions (e.g., invasions of Russia) is that supply lines are make or break. We are witnessing the start, just the start, of the New Frontier.
The New Frontier can be approached by separate systems or shared systems. Early european sailors (c1500AD) experienced a mix of separate and shared systems out in the New Frontier (Atlantic, Indian and Pacific Oceans).
I predict the latest frontier will see something "out there" resembling the story of the mail tree, Mossel Bay, Cape of Good Hope. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mossel_Bay
30
posted on
03/27/2019 11:38:46 PM PDT
by
rocknotsand
(Rock. Not sand.)
To: cgbg; All
BLOAT and whatever it fits in. 9mm and 40 cal are good ideas as if the SHTF should be easy “pick ups” if needed. Also 12 Ga x 2 3/4” will work in any 12 Ga Shotgun. And .223 is good too.
Precious metals are not edible. Lead is good for Hunting, Trading and Defense or Offense.
(I’m going to put out a Disclaimer now because last time I said basically the same thing I was accused of advocating killing people to get whatever I wanted. And if that was the case I would have typed those words.)
31
posted on
03/28/2019 12:19:45 AM PDT
by
mabarker1
(Congress- the opposite of PROGRESS!!!)
To: SeekAndFind
India just created a new hail of trash to be avoided and rendering that orbit unusable. If they keep that up, soon those orbits will resemble the Ganges.
32
posted on
03/28/2019 2:10:00 AM PDT
by
PIF
(They came for me and mine ... now it is your turn ...)
To: TexasGator
This bird was low enough that it will allegedly fall into the atmosphere and burn up in a few weeks. Alleged not guaranteed.
33
posted on
03/28/2019 2:12:33 AM PDT
by
PIF
(They came for me and mine ... now it is your turn ...)
To: SeekAndFind
Nah. New tech is about highjacking satellites and hacking them.
34
posted on
03/28/2019 2:51:43 AM PDT
by
JudgemAll
(Democrats Fed. job-security in hate:hypocrites must be gay like us or be tested/crucified)
To: SeekAndFind
Given that Russia has shown capable maneuvering sattlites to highjack and hack our satellites, nations might be inclined to whack their own sats if that happened.
35
posted on
03/28/2019 2:52:59 AM PDT
by
JudgemAll
(Democrats Fed. job-security in hate:hypocrites must be gay like us or be tested/crucified)
To: Dundee
When the U.S. shot down a defunct satellite over the Pacific, it was in a low orbit and most of debris fell into Canada and none seems to have survived for a second orbit. (I saw the radar tracks from PAVE PAWS Beale. There were hundreds of objects in the first orbit*, none in the second. When the Cosmos and Iridium collided, there were hundreds of objects in orbit 0, far fewer in orbit 1, and Beale had rotated east of the orbit path by orbit 2.)
When the U.S. did it, it was ostensibly for safety: It had a load of hydrazine that may have survived reentry and posed a threat to earth. The mission was accomplished with a Standard Missile II, fired from an Aegis destroyer, with special software. The software and documentation was destroyed after the mission. The entire programming effort took six weeks. The message to the Chinese was, “We can shoot down satellites, too.”
*Orbit 0 starts after a deployed object passes the equator going south to north. Prior to that is deployment. The satellite debris cloud never entered orbit 0, by that standard. Immediately after the collision with Kosmos the Iridium debris cloud passed through the corner of PAVE PAWS Beale’s field of view, going north to south. Beale was scheduled to track the Iridium satellite on it’s next pass, as part of its routine space surveillance mission, and caught the debris cloud on orbit 0 instead, and managed to catch orbit 1 as well. I believe some of that debris is still in orbit.
To: SeekAndFind
“Theres supposedly been a treaty in place for many decades prohibiting this sort of offensive technology...”
That reminds me, Hitler and Stalin had a non-aggression pact that was in effect just up to the second when Hitler unleashed his tanks to go east toward Russia.
Those kinds of treaties work only to give cover to enemies building up to break them.
37
posted on
03/28/2019 3:33:03 AM PDT
by
odawg
To: zeestephen
It means a gajillion tiny pieces of metal are flying every which way around planet Earth at 18,000 mph. Satellites don't get shot down, they get shot up.
A Kessler Syndrome. Chain reaction debris generation. Earth cocooned in a ever expanding cloud of crap.
No viable launches for centuries.
38
posted on
03/28/2019 3:38:25 AM PDT
by
null and void
(If socialism is so grand, why are Guatemalans coming here instead of going to Venezuela?)
To: TexasGator
It means you think just because
this target satellite was deliberately placed in very low orbit so the resulting debris would rapidly decay out of orbit due to the upper atmosphere drag you cannot imagine India or anyone else shooting up satellites a few dozen miles higher.
You, sir, have a failure of imagination.
39
posted on
03/28/2019 3:44:22 AM PDT
by
null and void
(If socialism is so grand, why are Guatemalans coming here instead of going to Venezuela?)
To: CondorFlight
Hopefully the next war will be decided in space and not on earth (hence, no damage here). Eh? The loss of weather satellites alone will cost a lot of lives. People taken unawares and unprepared for hurricanes, tornadoes, blizzards and floods. Farmers losing vast acreages of crops due to ill timed planting before damaging weather. Ships lost due to storms at sea.
Not to mention economic losses due to poor communications. Bad for us in the first world, but lethal to second and third world countries utterly dependent on razor thin margins only possible with timely market data.
Lack of satellite intel gives aggressors the confidence to amass troops and start surprise attack wars.
I assure you, there will be no shortage of corpses on earth.
40
posted on
03/28/2019 3:56:09 AM PDT
by
null and void
(If socialism is so grand, why are Guatemalans coming here instead of going to Venezuela?)
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