Posted on 12/26/2018 6:42:09 PM PST by Kaslin
We already learned that Russia was sending bombers to Venezuela for military exercises and supporting the country’s imploding economy. What could Vladimir Putin have wanted in exchange? We’re probably seeing the answer come into focus as Russia moves in to “help” Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro as we head into the new year. Putin is going to bail out Maduro’s failing government with some cash in exchange for establishing some measure of control over that nation’s vast crude oil reserves that are currently lying mostly dormant. (WaPo)
As allies go, Venezuela is a relatively cheap one for Russia. But the potential returns on Moscow’s investment there could be priceless.
In exchange for modest loans and bailouts over the past decade, Russia now owns significant parts of at least five oil fields in Venezuela, which holds the world’s largest reserves, along with 30 years’ worth of future output from two Caribbean natural-gas fields.
Venezuela also has signed over 49.9 percent of Citgo, its wholly owned company in the United States — including three Gulf Coast refineries and a countrywide web of pipelines — as collateral to Russia’s state-owned Rosneft oil behemoth for a reported $1.5 billion in desperately needed cash.
This is bad news for Venezuela and also an undesirable development for the United States. We’re currently in a battle with the Russians (among others) for dominance in the international oil and gas market. We’ve only recently gained the upper hand in that arena, but with Russia now owning half of Citgo and holding the banknotes on much of Venezuela’s proven crude oil reserves, that’s going to give them a serious leg up.
The reason this bodes ill for the people of Venezuela is equally obvious. The only way they’re going to rid themselves of their tyrant (absent some sort of external military intervention which is unlikely in the extreme) is if Maduro’s corrupt socialist kleptocracy collapses under its own weight. The dictator’s continued hold on power depends on his access to cash to keep all of his schemes funded and his militias on the payroll. If he can’t manage that, someone is likely to take him out sooner or later. Venezuela’s currency is currently worth absolutely nothing, so Maduro relies on gold and hard money from stable countries to remain in business.
This new infusion of billions of dollars from Russia, along with their military presence in the country cowing Maduro’s opposition, may be a deal with the devil but it will likely keep him in power for quite a while longer. And that means there will be no relief for his starving people and no chance to reestablish some form of functional government. Meanwhile, Putin clearly would rather have a tinpot socialist dictator who he can control in charge of Venezuela instead of any sort of more enlightened government.
Maduro brought this loss of control on himself by plundering Venezuela’s national oil company and effectively shutting down production. But his problems are producing a ripple effect which impacts everyone else. In some ways, Russia is currently winning a war in South America without firing a shot. And that’s definitely not good news for the west.
Won’t end well for them.
Better than China
Why doesn’t Brazil go in there and topple that A- hole.
it’s the george soros way.
[Next: Maduro will hire both Ocassionally Cortex-Impaired and “Beto” Juice O’Rouke as his financial counselors.]
You know, if they’ll move there permanently, I’ll help fund-raise $5 towards their one-way tickets.
Our class on commie expansionism and reasons for the sanctions against Venezuela continue.
https://venezuela.liveuamap.com/en/2018/10-december-norwegian-f18-fighter-jets-shadowed-russian-tu160
“Norwegian F-18 fighter jets shadowed Russian Tu-160 strategic bombers at several stages of flight from Russia to Venezuela - @mod_russia”
Venezuela Buying Su-30s, Helicopters, etc. From Russia
Mar 31, 2016 00
https://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/venezuela-buying-su30s-helicopters-et-al-from-russia-02472/
Venezuelan plant to start producing Russian rifles next year
2018-08-22
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-08/22/c_137408276.htm
[AKs: the old tradition continues with poor planning, bad ergonomics, poor ballistics and poor accuracy. “Good enough...” and all that.]
China-Russia is Venezuela’s closest ally.
Why some Venezuelans fear Maduro is selling them out to China
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/venezuela-china-beijing-maduro-economy-support-1.4824112
China is Venezuela’s main creditor, so China produces oil there.
Venezuela hands China more oil presence, but no mention of new funds
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-venezuela-idUSKCN1LU1EV
China vows to help crisis-hit Venezuela
https://www.dw.com/en/china-vows-to-help-crisis-hit-venezuela/a-45492164
China OPPOSES US sanctions on Venezuela [along with Russia.]
https://theduran.com/china-opposes-us-sanctions-venezuela/
Venezuela to significantly increase oil exports to China [Heh...really China increasing oil exports to China from Venezuela, pretty much like Russia’s plan.]
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/09/venezuela-significantly-increase-oil-exports-china-180919070322004.html
More on China-Russia in Venezuela.
State Media: ‘The Presence of China in Venezuela Is Getting Stronger Every Day
https://www.breitbart.com/latin-america/2018/09/17/state-media-presence-china-venezuela-getting-stronger-every-day/
Sooner or later there will be an open revolt in Venezuela. Hope they kill every Cuban, Iranian and Russian on sight.
In 1978, and again in 1979, Gorbachev speaking to the Russian Politburo in Moscow, bluntly spoke of significant key items the USSR was going to need to deal with in the following decades.
Some of the main points of the 1979 speech Gorbachev addressed were repeated and telling, and only a fool and enemy of our liberty and way of life, would choose to ignore.
**As did previous Soviet leaders, Gorbachev spoke of achieving the higher and final goal of a truly global socialist government, and spoke of how difficult it would be to achieve. But there were long standing road blocks which had proved difficult to overcome. He would come back to this thought later.
Gorbachev spoke of the general (overall), and long-term downward trend in the US Economy, which was true. Gorbachev then spoke of the severely dilapidated state of the US Military, and specifically the dangerous state of our strategic weapons, which again was very true!
Gorbachev then spoke of the likelihood the pendulum would swing, and the American Electorate would vote in a “strong man” and a “hawk”! This did happen, and we voted in President Ronald Reagan.
**In the 1979 speech, Gorbachev spoke of the nearly $4 Trillion dollars of Soviet Debt owed to Western banking systems. This debt was owed to the Federal Reserve, IMF, World Bank, London Club of Bankers, and the Paris Club of Bankers. In context, the population of the USSR’s communist state was totally dependent on the Soviet government, and the USSR did not have a market based economy, but rather a real command and control Military Industrial Economy, which was a small fraction of the individual economy of the US, Japan, or EU. As such, there was not way at all for Moscow to pay this debt. (The Federal Reserve has in the past, and does today, anchor the IMF and World Bank, and has remained the dominant influence within the London Club and Paris Club of Bankers).
Most academics and people in the West were, and are today, oblivious to the knowledge Western Central Banks had been lending money, and propping up Moscow since 1921, after Lenin had murderously solidified Communist control, and the USSR, and its Politburo was the entity to deal with. This went far beyond critical humanitarian staple trading for items such as tractors, to avoid further humanitarian disasters within the USSR. And the USSR’s WWII debt had been formally wiped off the books by Western Banks before the Korean War. This sovereign debt therefore did not count WWII.
Regarding foreign held debt, Gorbachev went on in his 1979 speech, to discuss how the debt could no longer be “rescheduled”, and would need to be largely dealt with no later than the years of 1993-1995. This was true as well.
**Gorbachev spoke of the need to “recreate” the USSR, and even used a term synonymous with “metamorphosis”, to describe the process of changing appearance or perceptions in the West. (It would be learned years later, the terms Russian Federation and Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS in the West), had already been likely decided between 1977-1979 before the 1979 speech. Gorbachev would define the Russian Federation, as retaining strategic control of all Soviet boundaries, and their Soviet air space. Nation States within Russian Federation (USSR) would both need, and be required to have “Reciprocal Trade Laws” and “Reciprocal Banking” laws with Moscow!
Briefly jumping forward to TODAY, with the exceptions of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, the Russian Federation today includes the entire USSR, requires Russian control of air and strategic space, and the various members have reciprocal trade laws which Moscow determines. As well, **any nation, which has attempted to break free or act independently from the Russian Federation, or attempts to establish agreements with any outside nation, has by force been stopped, or crushed. Since 1991, this has included Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and the Ukraine multiple times. *The Ukraine is also likely going to experience more formal and agresive Russian military action soon. Russia has pushed agreements in all of the Russian Federation, when it benefits Moscow, but it is always controlled by Moscow.
Back to 1979 -
Gorbachev tied this “recreation” to the need to have the debts forgiven. He then went on to define the perceived severity of the change the USSR was going to need to go through, in order to change Western perception. Gorbachev spoke of the need to appear open with the West, to allow foreign travel, and to allow state controlled foreign partnerships with Western corporations. **Here, an explanation of the need to rebuild Russian Energy infrastructure, (as it too was breaking down), and of the need to entice foreign investment in energy, to gain new infrastructure was spoken of. But it was not just for Russia. It was to create new energy alliances, and dependencies, as a means of realigning global alliances, to interrupt western capitalism. **He also spoke of the need to more rapidly “win the hearts and minds of western youth,” as there may only be a 20-30 year window.
Gorbachev had been, and remained committed to achieving a Global Socialist Government. Years later, after Reagan had taken on the Soviets, Gorbachev went on to create “schools” in the US itself (in cities like San Fransisco, New York, Chicago etc...), which would be exclusive, and push the socialist agenda, under the guise of “philanthropy”. These schools developed relationships with some of our most exclusive university colleges, thereby creating new bridges between Moscow and exclusive colleges in the US, which had not previously formally existed.
In this 1979 address, Gorbachev went on to speak of the strategic need to “transform” western society, to “win them over” so as to cause adoption of socialist ideology[!]
He spoke of the need for the perceptions Moscow and socialism had, to be changed in the West. As part of this goal, it was going to be necessary to change the “perception” of an aggressive military state, to one of strategic humanitarianism. This would all be necessary to create or realign to a more favorable or friendly global axis.
Gorbachev reiterated to the Politburo and Brass who were present, whatever immediate projects and goals they had, it would become necessary to finish them quickly, as the US would soon elect a “strong man” and “hawk”, and the USSR would come under additional pressure, which could not be dealt with, without the new western “perception” of Russia.
He then went on to again reiterate the need to win over the youth, and the need to defeat enemy of capitalism in the US, and around the world.
The aggressive military posture of Russia today in the Western Hemisphere, and proximal to the US, is much more substantial than at any point during the “formal” Cold War.
While Reagan was able to keep it from happening on his watch, today Russia maintains one of its most strategic
SIGINT and ELINT post, as well as rotations of 1-3 Spetsnaz Brigades in Nicaragua.
(Historically, Moscow was behind the communist takeover of Cuba, and has supported various Marxist groups across Latin America. This was not limited in time to the “behind the scenes” support of the communist takeover of Grenada and Panama in Reagan’s first term, which Reagan quickly dealt with to the consternation of an angry DNC)
Moscow and Beijing have worked all along to push and spread socialism across Venezuela. As well, the Russian nuclear powered Peter the Great Battle Ship, with its nuclear arsenal, has had one of its primary ports in Venezuela. The Peter the Great traditionally travels with 3-5 (up to 7) nuclear subs. Russia has also kept a nearly free lease on what is ultimately a Russian Air Force base in Venezuela. For the last two decades, this base has rotated anywhere from 2-24 TU 160 strategic bombers, each carrying up to 12 nuclear cruise missiles. Think about that for a moment. And they regularly fly along our coastlines. China is there as well. In fact, a supported story about some of our recent “caravans” at our borders, were tied to China and possibly Russia.
As well, today, whether it holds true in a WWIII may be a question, but Russia and China have a real common defense treaty, and China and Russia have been supporting Iran and the Shia Crescent in a big way.
In 2011, Russia announced it would spend the equivalent of $1.6 Trillion Dollars(US) in a 3 year time-frame, on military R&D and modernizing its military. Russia spent nearly $2.6 Trillion Dollars (US) from 2011 to 2016.
In the same period form 2011 to 2016, China spend nearly $3 Trillion Dollars (US) on its military and strategic military projects.
The types of weapon systems which have been developed by Russia and China are very advanced, very accurate, and very fast. This is a whole subject by itself, which I don’t want to get into as it is late.
During this time, without anyone stopping them, Moscow has moved into Canada’s North American Plate in the Arctic, originally claiming it was for energy related exploration. Today, Russia has staged Arctic invasion exercises of North America from several of its new Arctic military posts. At the same time, China has built a series of twelve posts across Antarctica.
Today, Russia’s goal is to control the majority of the energy flow into the EU, as this places Russian geopolitical influence, and to extent, control, over the EU’s foreign policy, and economic policy. Some have argued this would allow Russia to become one of the most dominant influences in global trade and finance.
There is another entire subject related to Russia’s influence with the Clinton’s and the Obamanation, regarding Uranium 1 and Skolkovo. While involving treasonous left wing politicians at the highest level, these were nonetheless symbiotic of Russia receiving technology and materials which hurt the US.
More recently, consider operative’s from the Kremlin (albeit paid, and in a real conspiracy with leftist at the highest level of our own government), intentionally gave false information regarding President Trump, which would be used to hopefully stop Trump, or hopefully serve to neutralize a “hawkish” American President, who could stand in their way.
Russia is truly creating alliances and facilitating the build up of military hardware and forces against Israel as well. But again, this is voluminous without even going there.
At the end of the day, there is much more going on with Russia than many would desire to even know.
From the article:
“We’re currently in a battle with the Russians (among others) for dominance in the international oil and gas market.”
I could care less. I just wish we’d stop importing and sending $$ to the ME & socialists in Venezuela.
“Venezuela’s oil is one of the most difficult to refine in the world, thus far less desirable that almost any other source. Only a few refineries (mostly in the US) can actually handle it.”
True and not true. The oil from the Maracaibo Basin is good stuff. The oil from the Orinoco is a “heavy crude” and much less valuable do to refinery costs to process this heavy crude. Venezuela did build one of the most modern refinery in the world to utilize this heavy crude. This was pre Chavez. That refinery today operates at about 25% of capacity. The workers that knew how to make it work just went away. They refused to work for paltry wages.
Due to the collapse of the oil industry in Venezuela the production of both is down greatly. The reason for this is those that know how to run a drilling and production operation left Venezuela. Many of those are in Columbia, Ecuador and the USA using their skills to drill and find and produce oil.
I read all of comment #50. It’s very informative. Thank you.
Citgo is now Russian-Venezuelan? Well, that gives lefties somewhere to buy gas. Can’t go to Exxon, of course.
Yea, good business alright. Let me know how that’s working for you when Russian missiles start raining down on the USA.
Mother Russia is dying and lacks the internal capability to produce enough to exist
Russian control of substantial portions of Venezuela assets feeds Russians but starves the owners
The deal represents the weakness of both sides
It’s great news. We’re now the world’s largest oil exporter. The more oil that’s produced, the lower the price. We used to import 25% of the world’s oil. No more. We should see a downward trend as OPEC members renege and pump all they can to maintain cash flow.
I see this as a good thing for the Venezuela people and hopefully it was stabilize the entire mass migration/invasion crisis.
You always win at fishing when you use the right bait.
Russia is not the enemy of the USA. If the roles were reversed, and if the USA was in the position of Russia, I suspect we would act exactly the same way in almost every foreign policy circumstance.
Russian foreign policy is far from irrational or erratic. It is in fact very reserved and very rational from the perspective of Russian interests...if you want to see irrational foreign policy, look no further than Russia's neighbor to the west, Ukraine...
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