Major Hurricane Michael Live Thread II

NHC/NOAA ^ | 9 October 2018 | NHC/NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Major Hurricane Michael is churning toward the northeastern Gulf of Mexico coast. Florida Governor Rick Scott declared a state of emergency Monday for 35 counties with mandatory coastal evacuations in the FL Panhandle. 1,250 National Guard troops are aiding the process and more than 4,000 more placed on standby.

FEMA is already on the ground in Florida; other federal agencies are also preparing to assist people in the storm's path.

Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey on Monday declared a state of emergency for the entire state. Georgia Governor Nathan Deal issued a state of emergency for 92 counties ahead of Hurricane Michael landfall.

Meanwhile, Tallahassee city government (Andrew Gillum, Mayor & D'Rat FL Gubernatorial candidate) offices are "closed until further notice." Tallahassee International Airport ‏is suspending commercial flight activity as 12:01 a.m. ET on Wednesday but expects to resume activity on Thursday.

The U.S. military moved its aircraft from the Panhandle on Monday. Roughly 50 F-22 stealth fighter jets — valued around $150 million each — have been relocated from the Tyndall Air Force Base, while the U.S. Navy said it is moving all its training aircraft from Pensacola.

Energy Production The Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) on Tuesday estimated that around 726 MMcf/d (28.4%) of natural gas production and 670,831 b/d (39.5%) of oil production in the GOM had been shut in ahead of the storm.

As of midday Tuesday, 75 platforms and three rigs had been evacuated, while eight dynamically positioned rigs had been moved out of the storm’s path as a precaution, according to BSEE.

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Channels

Public Advisories

NHC Discussions

NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Key West FL
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar New Orleans, LA
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Mobile AL/Pensacola FL
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Panama City, FL
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Tallahassee, FL
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Tampa Bay, FL

Hurricane Michael Thread I

[SE Mom]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ReedTimmerAccu?p=s

Sorry, meant to post link.

From reading around, the stormchasers were all stunned by this storm.

[thesearethetimes...]

Bookmark

[LilFarmer]

Unedited video - aerial video of damage Mexico Beach to Port St Joe https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/video/stunning-unedited-look-at-the-damage-from-mexico-beach-to-port-st-joe-florida

Also, please pray (send supplies, volunteer if you can), things are really bad down there. There are areas authorities haven’t even got into yet. I heard on the rescue channel they are pulling bodies out of the rubble in MB but they aren’t added to the death count yet. I think the toll will be in the hundreds when all is said and done.

[SE Mom]

I would be honored to help in the Panhandle but it’s not possible right now. I have sent some cash and clothes up already and will do whatever I’m able.

You’ll find a lot of Floridians pitching in. The search and rescue teams have protocols set up for their mission. They’ll get it done but it might be grim, as what you’re hearing suggests.

The videos I’ve watched are shocking.

[abb]

Here’s a bit more encouraging news. “Most” of Panama City Beach should have power by Midnight Monday.

https://outagemap.gulfpower.com/external/default.html

Hurricane Michael | Oct. 12, 2018 | Evening Update

(This alert banner is where you will get up-to-date information on the storm. Please check back often for new updates.)

Customers in the hardest hit areas should prepare to be without power for weeks.

The following estimated restoration times are for 95% of customers in the below geographic areas who are able to take service:

Bay County west of Highway 79 is estimated to be restored by midnight, Oct. 14.
Bay County east of Highway 79 to the Hathaway bridge is estimated to be restored by midnight, Oct. 15.
Holmes, Jackson and Washington counties are estimated to be restored by midnight, Oct. 19.

*** We are still working to determine restoration estimates for the hardest hit areas including downtown Panama City, Callaway, Parker, Lynn Haven, Youngstown and surrounding areas. ***

[LilFarmer]

Same here, I can’t physically. I’ve been listening to the Zello channel and I’m just so moved by Those volunteers. Floridians, Georgians, Alabama mostly but people coming even as far as Oklahoma.

[dirtboy]

I know you said you took your leave of this thread. So I will politely ask you back. We have a report from the Air Force Base in the eye of the storm of 150 mph winds with 170 mph gusts, which fully supports the official NHC forecast. We have reports all around of catastrophic damage. We have a report from a hurricane hunter pilot that this was the worst storm he has flown into. And we have reports of surge all the way to Appalaciacola.

So I will not insult you further. Just ask you to re-examine your premises. Yeah, I agree, sometimes the media and the government hypes this stuff. But also, given that intensity forecasts are the weakest link of what the NHC does, this storm shows that we cannot just assume that we are getting a marginal Cat 3 in a day or so when they can blow up out of nowhere to the edge of Cat 5. Because that is clearly what happened here.

[easternsky]

So many of us so appreciate your updates and warnings, and trust you and the crews tremendous reporting. Without this thread we would be totally in the dark about up to date happenings. Know you must be exhausted but just want you to know it is appreciated and our Prayers are with all in the Heart of it.

[NautiNurse]

Thank you for your kind sentiments. These threads are valuable with the accurate observations and info provided by many FReepers. It is truly a team effort.

[NautiNurse]

Great news about some electric power restoration in the area, indeed. One other bit of relief—cooler weather.

[NautiNurse]

More updates by the numbers:

Key developments

• No electricity: At least 1.15 million customers in seven states are without power, including 383,000 in Virginia, 365,000 in North Carolina and 301,613 in Florida.

• 17 killed--and the number is expected to climb: Eight people have died in Florida, including three fatalities announced Friday in Jackson County, north of Apalachicola. One of those deaths was due to debris, authorities said, and circumstances of the other two deaths were not immediately known. Five people died in Virginia. Four of those drowned, and the fifth was a firefighter who died in a storm-related crash on Interstate 295 in Hanover County, officials said. Three people in North Carolina and a child in Georgia also died.

• Severe crop damage: Georgia officials are receiving reports of damage to pecan, cotton, vegetable and peanut crops. “For me the cotton crop is as bad as it gets. I was picking three bale cotton (this week); today it is gone,” cotton farmer and state Rep. Clay Pirkle said. “Can’t tell the difference between what I’ve picked and what I haven’t.”

• Poultry industry: Georgia’s Department of Agriculture said it received reports that 84 chicken houses — estimated to hold more than 2 million chickens — were destroyed in the storm.
Source:WPIX-11

[sleddogs]

Thousands still missing.
https://www.foxnews.com/us/thousands-of-people-reported-missing-to-officials-following-hurricane-michael

[NautiNurse]

Let’s hope the vast majority of missing people are due to communication infrastructure failure. Cell phone towers are down and without electricity cell phones can’t be charged. Let’s hope...

[abb]

“Thousands” sounds a bit much. If there were that many bodies, the vultures would be circling.

[SE Mom]

Remember how the crazy rumors went around about Bolivar Peninsula after after Ike? Turned out ...to be just rumors.

[abb]

Another popular PC Beach restaurant/bar heard from.

https://www.facebook.com/SharkysBeachClub/

Sharky’s Beachfront Restaurant
16 hrs ·

We’re finally getting back to normal a tad. We will be opening Saturday, October 13th with a limited menu from 11am - 5pm. We will also only have bottle soda, bottle water and bottle beer available as beverage choices. We hope to see you #atthetiki tomorrow! #prayforthepanhandle #850strong

Sharky’s Beachfront Restaurant
3 hrs ·

We’re open! Come in and see us!!

[M Kehoe]

Bttt.

5.56mm

[abb]

Another major restaurant open.

https://www.facebook.com/Pompano-Joes-Panama-City-Beach-515892898469745/

Pompano Joe’s Panama City Beach
4 hrs ·

We are happy to announce we our open for business today!

[kristinn]

Seeing reports on Twitter that hard hit Bay County (Panama City area)in Florida was having major problems. An expedited relief effort is being made. A mobile alert was sent out to a large swath of Florida (including my area) announcing a new food and water distribution center being opened there.

The Bay County Sheriff's Twitter feed is updating efforts.

Also says a local radio station is providing updates.

For continuing information on the Hurricane Michael recovery efforts in Bay County, please tune in to local media. 90.7 FM WKGC has remained operational during the storm and carries the latest accurate information.

[M Kehoe]

Bttt.

5.56mm