NYT Upshot / Siena College Poll; Heller 48%, Rosen 45% (Another Post Kavanaugh Poll)

NYT ^ | Oct 8, 2018

[11th_VA]

A Republican incumbent tries to hold on in Nevada, where Hillary Clinton won. We’ve made 8012 calls, and 212 people have spoken to us so far.

[Freedom'sWorthIt]

Good suggestion = could you make it over on this thread?

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3694890/posts

Thanks if you can do it.

[FLT-bird]

By my count: we’ll hold onto the open seat in Tennessee and it looks like Heller will hold his seat in Nevada - he’s consistently had a lead. We’ll see about the open seat in Arizona. McSally has made up a lot of ground on Sinema and Arizona leans Republican but last I saw, Sinema had a 2 point lead.

We’ll pick up North Dakota.
We’ll pick up Florida.
We’re leading in Missouri (really want McCaskill out)
Montana and Indiana are up in the air right now.

Longer shots are New Jersey and Wisconsin but each is possible.

I think the Republicans pick up 4 senate seats.

[nikos1121]

Now is NOT the time to gloat, or get cocky.

I can recall during the 2016 election. There was a bunch of us here, (you probably included). We were watching each rally like clock work. Even though the polls said he’d lose, we ALL KNEW HE WAS GOING TO WIN.

There was no way people were not enthusiastic.

I think there was wide spread voter fraud, but I think our side countered it with more people showing up to vote.

I think that’s what is really bothering the other side, because they know they were out voted.

Same thing now. He’s got us all so revved up, I honestly think that we are going to out vote him.

No other president, none, have worked this hard. He’s showing people how it’s done.

You’d think if the rest of the GOP, people like RYAN and others. If they’d help him.

If he had half of the press behind him, he’d have approval rating in the 80s.

Did I see somewhere that the African American vote was approaching 35% for Trump?!!!!!!!

[trebb]

We have been given and adrenaline shot and they have become demoralized...the anger will always show but one can be totally demoralized and stay angry....

[Pollster1]

I wonder what the breakdown is on the 7800 people who wouldn’t talk to them (or couldn’t be reached).

That's the hard thing about being a pollster today. We squandered our credibility and now so few will talk to us that we don't know how to adjust for the very low response rates. This response rate is so low that it's meaningless, and even adjusting for demographics is still meaningless. [Note: I'm retired, but I see how hard it has become.]

[SMGFan]

2% respond? Good thing we have elections./s

[Democrats hate too much]

I posted:

Instead of calls, everyone should search for public facebook posts (and you can actually look for puplic posts for specific states) that have either of the candidates names in the public post. Then write comments, clear up fake news, defend our candidate and spread the facts. This is a way better use of time... FYI, I did calls and then came up with this idea. I picked one battle ground state. From 6pm-2am every night after work for the last 3 weeks of the election I did this. I think I made over 1,000 posts a day. WAY BETTER USE OF TIME VOLUNTEERING. The state that I picked was Pennsylvania. I was not surprised it voted Trump at the end.

[kara37]

Wait out if eight thousand calls two hundred have taken the survey

Don’t trust this poll. This is crap polling

You can like the result but it means nothing
********************************************************

It doesn’t mean anything yet.
It’s the NYT live polling. It’s actually pretty cool. You see the results in real time.

They keep calling until they get at least 500 responses. This poll will resume tonight. It usually takes about 3 nights to finish the poll and get to 500.

[SunkenCiv]

Polling from the Slimes.

[Nifster]

500 responses only gives one a ninety five percent level of certainty

Considering how many are not answering the phone or who are not answering the survey it’s not even that good

[kara37]

500 responses only gives one a ninety five percent level of certainty

******************************

True, but it’s just about as accurate as any of the other polls.

[Nifster]

And Hillary won the presidency

[entropy12]

I was going by polling in general, not specific anecdotal situation. You can’t judge the world based on your family.

[cnsmom]

I understand I was just letting you know that the polling doesn’t square with what I’m hearing from my daughter and 1 daughter works in the social media industry. but I’m not discrediting any polls. But in 2016 I drove through Michigan in October and knew Trump was going to win after one night in a bar after a football game. My most liberal family members loved Trump.

[entropy12]

Good points. I knew Trump was going to win 11 years ago when I saw how he handled his 100+ managers of golf & hotel resorts from all over the world. It was an amazing display of CEO talent. Then when declared his run and talked about immigration and foreign trade, it was a done deal. His brain is still as good as 11 years ago, but he spoke more smooth 11 years ago.

[Republican Wildcat]

More like 45% or under. 48% is close enough to 50% that if the opponent is truly at 45% like this says, most of the undecideds can still break for the challenger but he is still close enough to 50% to get there with far fewer of the undecideds going his way. Now if it was 45% to 42%, he would be in much bigger trouble, or even 48% to 47%. Of course it also depends on how high the challenger’s negatives are...and the reason he is even still in this is because the SuperPACs swooped in months ago and have been running blistering negative ads against Rosen non-stop.