GOP heading for midterm wipeout as Blue Wave scenario gives Democrats 12-point generic ballot lead

CNBC ^ | 10-22-2018 | John Harwood

[tcrlaf]

The new NBC News-Wall Street Journal survey, taken six weeks before Americans head to the polls, shows Democrats leading Republicans by 52 percent to 40 percent for control of Congress. If it holds, that 12 percentage point margin would suggest a "blue wave" large enough to switch control of not just the House but also the Senate.

[Crucial]

If the GOP doesn’t conform Kavanaugh, it will depress the GOP vote and embolden the Dem base.

[jersey117]

In my opinion there will be no blue wave. My guage is the same one I used when Trump won. Turnout to his rallies. His support is as strong as it was in 2016. Trump voters know how important this election is. I predict strong turnout on our side. The polls are run by the enemy.

[M Kehoe]

Please oh please let there be a blue wave.

I’ll bet they didn’t ask the Lord.

5.56mm

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks LS.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3689915/posts?page=109#109

[SmokingJoe]

FLASHBACK 2016 RCP generic congressional polls:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2016_generic_congressional_vote-5279.html

You will notice that every single poll in September (apart from 2 in the first week of September), had the Dems ahead by anywhere from 1 to 7 points. For October, the polls had the Dems ahead in every single poll by from 1 to 10 points.
What happened in the end? Republicans comfortably held The House.
Lesson? Ignore all these suppression polls from the corrupt media and make sure you and every a Republican you know go and vote.

[Mr. Jeeves]

Generic Democrat always wins every race by 12 points. The real ones lose the same races by five points. :)

[Sirius Lee]

Assume this is a real poll and cajole every American Conservative you know to get out and canvass. And don’t forget to vote!

[ZULU]

NBC is bull. Another fake poll. But the danger I think is mainstream Republicans not voting for RINOS who managed to win primaries but refused to support Trump.

[SaveFerris]

I certainly hope so.

[Impy]

Well first off the genetic ballot....while it might not be *entirely* useless is not something that is very important. For House I mean, talking about “generic ballot” in regards to the Senate like this article does is just retarded.

I recall a week or 2 ago there was a poll of IDK how many swing districts and the GOP was up by 3 or 4 points.

Now there are a lot of seats in play, polls are tight. Dems acknowledge this but say “they will all break our way cause that’s how a ‘wave’ works”. That certainly *could* happen but they need almost all of them to get a narrow majority. Talk of a large rat majority is fantasy.

After all this there are only THREE GOP House seats that are SURE losses (2 of those because of illegal gerrymandering by the court in PA). And a just handful more that seem iffy. In addition while the media isn’t talking about it we have several pickup opportunities that could offset some losses, 2 open seats a piece in MN and NV being the best.

Maybe I’m an optimistic fool but I feel good in predicting a hold and think there is decent chance the rat net gain will be very paltry, single digits.

As for the Senate I’d give us slight edge in holding NV and AZ and don’t think TX and TN are quite as vulnerable as rats hope, I’m more worried about TN but think the rat is likely to max out at 48% or so like Harold Ford in 2006. With at least 5 rat seats being critically at risk and several more that could potentially be GOP gains the rats being bullish on the Senate makes no sense. They need BOTH AZ and NV and to hold ALL there own or get TN too if they lose even one of them. An inside straight as we call that is possible but doesn’t seem likely this year with these “red state” democrat seats up. ND, FL, MO, MT, IN will all be close but I feel good about them.

[lasereye]

What happens with some of these polls is that the final ones are nothing like the ones when the election is a few weeks away. When they rate poll accuracy after each election, it’s based only on the final poll. Common sense tells you that a 10 point change is highly unlikely in a span of a few weeks. What happens is the final ones are at most just slightly manipulated, unlike the earlier ones that were essentially fabricated.

[LS]

I’m not sure you’re out to lunch. Brown’s election proved that even Massachusetts citizens once a decade come to their senses.

[LS]

This should cheer you guys up: This guy says that the Ds have max 24 seats they can get. But 12 of those are in play (That’s closer to what I have, only I give the Ds fewer than 20 in play).

Nevertheless, even by this guy’s assessment, Ds have to literally run the table on every single seat and not have another D-R flip somewhere.

https://twitter.com/edokeefe/status/1043873737433653253

ALSO: Another poll today from OH, with Renacci down just 2.6 points. That means in six weeks he’s basically made up a point a week. From “Ohio Wan”: “This guy finds a way to win. His first congressional race he defeated an entrenched Dem, then they redistricted him into another Dem district and he clobbered that guy too.” Rs, with a 300,000 voter reg advantage, should win this seat now. I increasingly think OH needs to be added to MO, MT, ND, IN, FL as pickups. Two recent polls show Heller holding a close lead. So AZ & NV appear close, but safe. Vukmire down only 2 in WI, but different situation than Renacci as Rs don’t have the voter reg advantage there. Still, not at all out of the question for a 7-point pickup as of today.

[Jane Long]

Thanks for the ping.

How can AZ even be close?

[LS]

I don’t think it is.

You have a replacement candidate (McSally) who is not loved by conservatives, vs a woman who has been preparing for 2 years for this run and has a ton of money.

I think McSally wins by 4-5.

[Jet Jaguar]

Thanks.

[gov_bean_ counter]

Thanks for the updates.

[laplata]

Thank you.

[laplata]

If the GOP doesn’t conform Kavanaugh, it will depress the GOP vote and embolden the Dem base.

><

I think it would have the opposite effect. People are pi$$ed.

Kavanaugh will sit on the USSC.

[ssaftler]

The problem with this polling is that they tend to co-mingle the results nationwide. It may be true that in the aggregate, the Democrats are ahead by 12 points. But when you remember that we have 435 different races, the “wipeout” may not exist. Out here in the Bay Area, I don’t think there are ANY Republicans running for the 7 or 8 seats in the November ballot. So, of course, the polling here would show 100%-0% for the Dems, since there’s nobody on the other side, generic or not.

This is also why the polls in 2016 were so bad. The 5 million illegal votes that Hillary got in California meant nothing. She got the 55 Electoral votes whether she won by 5,000,000 or 537 votes.

But the LIV out there don’t realize this, so they believe these silly polls and may wake up on November 7th “horrified” that the Republicans still hold both the House and the Senate.