Posted on 09/12/2018 1:53:29 PM PDT by NautiNurse
The National Hurricane Center has been issuing advisories for Hurricane Florence since August 30. The five day "Cone of Uncertainty" archive progression since Aug. 30 may be found here. As the super-size storm named Florence approached the U.S. Atlantic Coast, stories abound of people who are refusing to evacuate barrier islands.
The 82nd Airborne has relocated all of its assets, while FEMA is using Fort Bragg as a major staging area for post-storm supplies, including meals, water and cots. Fort Jackson (Columbia SC) has cancelled events including basic training graduation to prepare for military and civilian evacuees from coastal locations.
While hurricane preparations are rushed to completion, some stores are closing for lack of hurricane supplies inventory. Smart phone app Gas Buddy provides updates for gasoline availability along evacuation routes.
Wave heights to 83 ft. were recorded while Hurricane Florence churned 435 miles from Wilmington, NC. Storm surge is predicted to reach 6-13 ft along the coastline to the N of landfall. Steering currents are forecast to collapse at or near landfall, resulting in Florence meandering for days. This is expected to result in up to 40 inches of rainfall in isolated areas in the Carolinas, and up to a foot of rain in the Appalachian Mountains.
Tropical Storm Isaac: The government of France has issued Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches for the Lesser Antilles.
Invest 95L: The National Hurricane Center predicts 70% chance of development in the Gulf of Mexico. Limited forecast models, satellite graphics and GOM buoy info are available for Invest 95L below.
Mash the graphics below to enlarge. All links and images are self-updating.
Local Weather: |
"Chick Jacobs @NCWeatherhound 45m45 minutes ago
Peak flooding on the Lumber at Lumberton with Matthew was 24.3 feet. That covered I-95 for miles and flooded countless homes and businesses.
The expected peak if #Florence's rains verify: 25 feet, an additional 6 inches of misery to that region."
Jeffers mapped out the tornado potential of those cells up in post #569.
The Cape Fear in FAY is projected to see levels unseen since the catastrophic flood of 1945 (thank the Lord for Jordan Lake Dam!) At 62.5 feet, the river will be 3 feet higher than Matthew, and about 18 feet higher than Fran."
(Note: the 1945 flood referred to produced the record of a 68.9 ft river height. Chick also tweeted about the likelihood of this river being a mile wide just south of Fayetteville.)
“Five hundred million without power” LMAO
.....the stupidity of “reporters” and their editors is breath-taking.
Yes. My gut reaction is diffuse, and hard to quantify, but basically, my experience with vids is that, like tsunamis, storm surge waves add to depth, where non-surge, wind driven water piling up has waves on top that do not increase depth quickly.
I think the point I’m trying to make is the relative speeds of depth increase. Wind will drive water deeper over time, surge brings it in fast.
The GOOD news on these flooding forecasts? There’s 3 days of warning here... those peaks are not expected to hit until Tuesday.
lol..isn’t that MORE than the population of the united states? I still got power here in Kentucky...anyone else?
(Slight edit - the Lumber River will hit major flood status tomorrow and stay there for about 3 days... Cape Fear area residents will have more time to prepare/leave).
Thanks, AdMod!
Morehead City...42.5" rain already fallen
Fox News needs to have someone proofread their crawlers! “500 Million without power”—jeez!
And their politicians.
Terry McAuliffe, what a buffoon!!!!
The entire coast between Wilmington and Pamlico Sound is facing right into the surge direction. Bad news indeed for getting maximum surge damage.
The Cape Fear River around Fayetteville and on both sides is contained by fairly high bluffs.
Once the river hits the height of the bluffs it has flat land to spread into, especially to the east. Pretty flat to the west up to the County Courthouse.
The above is just what the 1945 flood did.
So it sounds like (a) there's a physical limit to maximum flood height... but (b) once it gets there everybody gets flooded - that about right?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.