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Hurricane Florence Live Thread II
NHC/NOAA ^ | 12 September 2018 | NHC/NOAA

Posted on 09/12/2018 1:53:29 PM PDT by NautiNurse

The National Hurricane Center has been issuing advisories for Hurricane Florence since August 30. The five day "Cone of Uncertainty" archive progression since Aug. 30 may be found here. As the super-size storm named Florence approached the U.S. Atlantic Coast, stories abound of people who are refusing to evacuate barrier islands.

The 82nd Airborne has relocated all of its assets, while FEMA is using Fort Bragg as a major staging area for post-storm supplies, including meals, water and cots. Fort Jackson (Columbia SC) has cancelled events including basic training graduation to prepare for military and civilian evacuees from coastal locations.

While hurricane preparations are rushed to completion, some stores are closing for lack of hurricane supplies inventory. Smart phone app Gas Buddy provides updates for gasoline availability along evacuation routes.

Wave heights to 83 ft. were recorded while Hurricane Florence churned 435 miles from Wilmington, NC. Storm surge is predicted to reach 6-13 ft along the coastline to the N of landfall. Steering currents are forecast to collapse at or near landfall, resulting in Florence meandering for days. This is expected to result in up to 40 inches of rainfall in isolated areas in the Carolinas, and up to a foot of rain in the Appalachian Mountains.

Tropical Storm Isaac: The government of France has issued Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches for the Lesser Antilles.

Invest 95L: The National Hurricane Center predicts 70% chance of development in the Gulf of Mexico. Limited forecast models, satellite graphics and GOM buoy info are available for Invest 95L below.

Mash the graphics below to enlarge. All links and images are self-updating.

Hurricane Florence Isaac Invest 95L
No Forecast Cone for Invest 95L
at publication deadline

Florence Public Advisory Isaac Public Advisory
Florence Forecast Discussion Isaac Forecast Discussion
Buoy/Observations near Florence Buoy/Observations near Isaac Buoys Western GOM

National Data Buoy Center

Local Weather:
Norfolk VA
Morehead City NC
Raleigh NC
Fayetteville NC
Wilmington NC
Charleston SC/Savannah GA
Jacksonville FL
San Juan PR

Hurricane Florence & Isaac Thread I



TOPICS: Breaking News; Extended News; Front Page News; News/Current Events; US: North Carolina; US: South Carolina
KEYWORDS: braking; florence; hurricane; hurricaneflorence; hurricaneflorenceii; isaac; nautinurse; tropical
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To: alancarp

That pier was swaying dangerously late yesterday afternoon. I would be more surprised if it was still standing today.


561 posted on 09/14/2018 9:11:01 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Do not make me pay Ferrari prices for Chevy Vega health insurance.)
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To: NautiNurse

562 posted on 09/14/2018 9:13:32 AM PDT by silent_jonny ("forward to what lies ahead" -- Phil. 3:13)
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To: dirtboy
This is where New Bern gets it, hard. Face the wind, and center of low pressure's over your right shoulder. Pushing water into the L-shaped bay.

Wind following red arrow, tornado at green arrow, video from blue cross, looks like surge to me, but could still just be wind driven waves, as they're under a heavy feeder band.

 photo 1204 New Bern.jpg

Video at:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GlfNvaVkdKI&index=10&list=PLuiqNbQumBnjyXrEillVQjEHvUZFr8Pg4
563 posted on 09/14/2018 9:14:33 AM PDT by jeffers
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To: silent_jonny

Offhand, I’d say that the illegal immigration has gotten way out of hand in NC, given those numbers.


564 posted on 09/14/2018 9:16:50 AM PDT by alancarp (George Orwell was an optimist.)
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To: waterhill

Yeah, had the second camera too close to the window and the screen had kinda’ blurred everything.

Cameras are off line now - power or internet.


565 posted on 09/14/2018 9:18:08 AM PDT by PeteB570 ( Islam is the sea in which the Terrorist Shark swims. The deeper the sea the larger the shark.)
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To: NautiNurse

“Sir, the hotel’s Free Parking is for cars only, not ships, and DOES NOT mean ‘free to park anywhere you want’.”


566 posted on 09/14/2018 9:18:17 AM PDT by jeffers
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To: alancarp

Right? We must be the only ones in North America that still have power.


567 posted on 09/14/2018 9:19:39 AM PDT by silent_jonny ("forward to what lies ahead" -- Phil. 3:13)
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To: silent_jonny

North Carolina must awfully crowded this time of year.


568 posted on 09/14/2018 9:20:21 AM PDT by raybbr (That progressive bumper sticker on your car might just as wll say, "Yes, I'm THAT stupid!"to)
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To: dirtboy
NROT Shear under orange crossed circle is likely radar artifacts (possibly from refracted returns off moving vehicles, pretty common near dish sites), but all the orange arrows are velocity couplets. This feeder band has high tornado potential.

 photo 1224 New Bern Shear.jpg
569 posted on 09/14/2018 9:29:01 AM PDT by jeffers
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To: dirtboy

New Bern was first settled by Swiss (Bern) and German immigrants in 1710, and the city boasts a colorful history. New Bern was the capitol of North Carolina 1770-1792 (Tryon Palace). It was a strategic trade center and port, and a battle site during the Civil War. Today, it is a popular relocation destination for retired Yankees.


570 posted on 09/14/2018 9:29:21 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Do not make me pay Ferrari prices for Chevy Vega health insurance.)
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To: NautiNurse

The Courtyard Marriott in New Bern gets an unusual visitor...

It’s the S.S. Minnow!


571 posted on 09/14/2018 9:31:10 AM PDT by Flick Lives
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To: jeffers

New Bern is at the confluence of the the Trent and Neuse Rivers. Onshore winds and surge shoved water right up the Neuse River.


572 posted on 09/14/2018 9:36:33 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Do not make me pay Ferrari prices for Chevy Vega health insurance.)
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To: NautiNurse
In the last series of tweets, @crankywxguy talks about the bands on the east side of the hurricane dividing into rotating supercells. "VERY nasty severe line."
573 posted on 09/14/2018 9:37:13 AM PDT by snarkpup ("We need to have a REAL political campaign - rivaling the scale of Comic-Con!" - Tan)
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To: raybbr

I thought the Floridians didn’t move north until winter


574 posted on 09/14/2018 9:39:21 AM PDT by CottonBall (Thank you , Julian!)
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To: snarkpup

Does anybody know anything about the airport at Charlotte? Hubby is due to fly out of there from Denver at two this afternoon.


575 posted on 09/14/2018 9:40:21 AM PDT by CottonBall (Thank you , Julian!)
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To: jeffers

Amazing obs. Thank you for sharing potential tornadic activity. You were spot on yesterday, too.


576 posted on 09/14/2018 9:40:28 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Do not make me pay Ferrari prices for Chevy Vega health insurance.)
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To: NautiNurse

Brunswick County, NC has an Electric Co Op.

Here is their outage map.

Shows around 10,000 customers out in the vicinity of our place.

https://bemc.maps.sienatech.com/


577 posted on 09/14/2018 9:41:05 AM PDT by PeteB570 ( Islam is the sea in which the Terrorist Shark swims. The deeper the sea the larger the shark.)
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To: CottonBall

“I thought the Floridians didn’t move north until winter”

opposite: Snow birds come hear in the winter when it’s not so hot, then leave in the spring when it starts to get hot.


578 posted on 09/14/2018 9:41:15 AM PDT by VastRWCon (LARGE PRINT GIVE IT, small print take it away.)
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To: NautiNurse

Seeing reports (via twitter) now about river flooding projections that will exceed levels from Matthew by multiple feet. Lumber River at Lumberton; Cape Fear River at Fayetteville (the latter 3 feet above Matthew and well in ‘major’ flooding category).

Also: Blue Ridge Parkway will be closed today.. guessing “almost all of it”, based on this from the parkway’s official twitter site.

“On September 14, 2018, the 469-mile Blue Ridge Parkway and all associated facilities, with the exception of the Pisgah Inn and Peaks of Otter Lodge, will be closed at 8:00 p.m. in anticipation of high winds and heavy rains.”


579 posted on 09/14/2018 9:43:43 AM PDT by alancarp (George Orwell was an optimist.)
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To: CottonBall

Charlotte Douglas Airport is open. Check with the airline. Each airline is offering re-scheduling opportunities with waived penalties, if needed. Varies by destination/airline.


580 posted on 09/14/2018 9:43:58 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Do not make me pay Ferrari prices for Chevy Vega health insurance.)
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