Posted on 09/09/2018 8:01:18 AM PDT by NautiNurse
September 10 is the statistical peak of the Atlantic Tropical Storm season, and the conga line of storms dancing across the Atlantic is not disappointing historical data. The Governors of NC and SC have declared states of emergency for a potential major hurricane landfall, while Hurricane Florence is slowly creeping westward. Florence is predicted to increase forward motion and intensity Monday. Hurricanes Hazel (1954) and Hugo (1989) are two notorious major hurricanes to make landfall in NC and SC, respectively. North Carolina has prior experience with "F" named hurricanes. Hurricanes Fran (1996) and Floyd (1999) caused widespread flooding and damage in the Tar Heel state.
The NHC has been issuing Public Advisories for Florence since August 30. The five day "Cone of Uncertainty" archive progression since Aug. 30 may be found here.
Isaac is a small storm. Isaac is predicted to steadily strengthen during the next few days as the storm remains over warm waters and in a low wind shear environment in the short term. The NHC predicts Isaac will reach hurricane status within 2 days.
Helene is expected to reach hurricane status in the short term. However, Helene is not anticipated to threaten U.S. interests. The forecast track turns north into the mid-Atlantic.
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The Euro is showing that scenario, and it was the first to send Flo SW along the coast.
It’s funny how the outerband is rotating the opposite direction of the cone rotation.
Looks like the coast is seeing its first weather from this storm. If this stalls, I hope it weakens. The water is likely too warm for this to weaken, but I hope it does.
The surge is going to devastate.
The eye is 40 miles wide?!?
Gads.
Imagine Ike spending 3 days drifting SW along the Texas coast. And the South Carolina coast is much more developed.
FreedomPoster, a GA re-ping would be in order.
Storm Forums are saying that the eye is beginning another Eye-Wall Replacement Cycle (EWRC) and may become 60 to 70 miles wide.
Following the storm track forums this morning it seems that the eye is approaching NC coast just south of Wilmington, NC with all the NC coast taking the “dirty side”. The problem is that the majority of the computer models all show movement slowing as it reaches that point south of Wilmington.
Reading through about fifty posts on those forums the storm slows and in some models goes inland at Myrtle Beach, SC, some it stays with the eye-wall just off shore and rakes the whole SC coast coming in finally south of Savannah, Georgia.
This slowing as it approaches landfall is very problematic as since there is no big steering trough of pressure, it just sits and churns and we won’t know where it is going until the damage there has already begun. It may be dumping torrential rains in the Appalachians five days from now on Monday and Tuesday after flooding the entire coast.
I apologize for the alarmist type wording — but that is what I am reading. Could be TS damage in Florida after south OBX getting hammered — that’s how big and nasty this may be.
That’s not rotation, per se, it is development. Condensation conditions being extended upstream, as the storm intensifies.
That is the upper-level outflow of the storm, and it gets carried away by upper level high pressure over the storm - a key element for a major hurricane - to have well-developed outflow channels.
You look at the track, and it takes the storm over the Appalachian Mts. It’s going to scrape the moisture out of the storm and send it back to the sea. This is going to hammer, like, six states?
If it sits off the coast and dumps a foot of rain, and then another foot comes down off the mountains?
Man. Not good.
Which way do you run? North or south?
Interesting. Thanks for that. I teach kids how to sail, so this sort of stuff is fascinating to me.
Georgia has declared a state of emergency.
I think "up hill" is that answer, as soon as you can get up hill.
East then, and keep going until you land in Western Tennessee.
That’s the long way around, isn’t it?
Depends how deep the storm goes into the US. One model has it going into Arkansas. The other through NC and up into Kentucky and Virginia.
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