Posted on 08/02/2018 6:28:59 AM PDT by BlackFemaleArmyColonel
WASHINGTON - It’s time for Republicans to start worrying again.
A special election next week in Ohio’s 12th Congressional District is the last big electoral test before November’s election, a showdown in a once deep-red suburban House seat that Donald Trump won just two years ago by 11 points.
Now, however, both parties view the race between GOP nominee Troy Balderson and Democratic nominee Danny O’Connor as a toss-up — and that’s a warning sign for GOP candidates already bracing for a difficult election environment, especially in suburban districts that will help determine control of the House this fall.
The race’s urgency was underscored this week with the announcement that Trump would hold a last-minute campaign event on Saturday in the district ahead of Tuesday’s vote, as well as the release of a new poll showing the race effectively tied.
“In a good year, in a good environment, you probably wouldn’t worry so much about this district,” said Scott Jennings, a veteran Republican strategist who ran Mitt Romney’s Ohio operation in 2012. “In a bad year, a bad environment, it’s exactly the kind of district you worry about, particularly because of the suburban elements that exist in this district.”
Added a national Republican strategist with close ties to Ohio, “The story of this race is going to be a lot more of an accurate picture of what House Republicans can expect this fall than any special election we’ve seen up to this point.”
GOP groups have rushed to help Balderson, who has struggled to match Democratic enthusiasm and money, and has been heavily outspent on the airwaves, stoking concerns among national Republicans.
(Excerpt) Read more at mcclatchydc.com ...
women
Why? Because the Liberals are absolutely amped up from the emotional 24/7 anti-Trump hype which has told them that life as we know it is ending because of Trump.
So yes, Republicans need to turn out.
Typically that means R up +6...
Oh Noes, the sky is falling.
If, in fact, their base is super-energized. It may not be. Time will tell.
Except we just got word that Balderson has expanded his lead, and is now up 10.
No, don’t buy that this district is “in trouble” at all.
Yeah... With the likes of the "Shiit Bird known as John Kasich it isn't going to be easy in Ohio...
No. My OH guys tell me Balderson is up 10.
Man...you can’t believe everything you read and every poll they put in front of you.
I don’t have many Liberal friends, but of those I’m friendly with, even they are telling me they are growing weary and tired over the 24x7 Trump bashing.
I don’t believe half of these people are going to be motivated to do anything during the mid-terms.
You can’t judge a projected “wave” based on a small group of idiots screaming on the street corner. Nor can you judge it by what you hear on CNN...simply because no one watches CNN anymore, except the small group of people that scream on street corners.
my NE Ohio son said that Kasich (he is the son of a mailman, btw), would be lucky to be elected dog catcher anywhere in the Buckeye state.
Here’s the bottom line on this race...
If the GOP candidate wins with a margin under the 2016 results in that district, it’s “proof” that the GOP is in electoral trouble.
If the GOP candidate loses, it’s “proof” that the GOP is in serious electoral trouble.
I’m just curious about the dynamics of this race. Is it really fueled by anti-Trump sentiment or is it possible the GOP nominee has not been running a good race?
Since 2016, we’ve had a number of GOP candidates running who frankly have been less than stellar in fundraising and campaigning.
The Dems is running as a moderate Conservative.
Yes, I can totally see the return of manufacturing jobs to the midwest must be really really pissing them off
There’s no such thing as a “bellwether,” this is just pundit mental masturbation. It’s like how the recall election of Scott Walker in mid-2012 was a “bellwether” for the Obama-Romney race, but guess what? It wasn’t. Walker won by a larger margin than he did in 2010, and Romney lost big. Stop with this junk analysis.
Polls stopped be honest attempts to assess the will of the voters and turned into psyop tools for manipulating voter behavior in 2016.
Tell people their side is losing and some of the least politically-inclined will just think screwit, my vote doesn’t matter then and not vote. This is what they are trying to do.
Thanks!
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