Wave watch: GOP's toughest map in 88 years

Axios ^ | 27 July 2018 | David Wasserman

[Magnatron]

In a special preview for Axios readers, here's a new analysis by David Wasserman of Cook Political Report, unpacking the GOP's daunting math:

"With 102 days to go, Democrats remain substantial favorites for House control. A big reason: Republicans are defending 42 open or vacant seats, a record since at least 1930." (After the March victory by Democrat Conor Lamb in Pennsylvania, Democrats need to flip 23 seats to take the House).

"Of Republicans' 42 incumbent-less seats, eight are in districts that voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016, and an additional 13 are in districts where President Trump received less than 55 percent."

Killer stat: "[S]ince 1992, in situations when a president's party was stuck defending an open seat two years after the president failed to carry it, that party has batted zero for 23 keeping it in their column."

"Fundraising deficits are a growing GOP problem":

"[I]n 20 of the 42 seats, the leading Democrat raised more than the leading Republican between April and June, including in seven of eight Clinton-carried districts (Rep. Dave Reichert's open WA-08 was the only exception) and 13 of 34 Trump-carried seats."

David's ratings for the 42 Republican open seats: 3 Likely D ... 5 Lean D ... 4 Tossup ... 7 Lean R ... 4 Likely R ... 19 Solid R.

[kiryandil]

That's weird.

I didn't see any of NY Times whoreporter Emily Badger's prices for various sex acts on her Twitter page.   

[Paladin2]

Thanks for the link.

Peoples’ Republic:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/election-2016-voting-precinct-maps.html#9.11/45.795/-110.788

[WMarshal]

President Hillary Clinton expressed joy and confidence upon hearing this latest good polling news. /sarc

[TwelveOfTwenty]

Regardless of what we think of these polls, we need to show up and vote.

Not only to defend our President against the Dems, but also to show the Dems that we Americans are sick of them.

[StAnDeliver]

Dave Wassermann is a thumb-sucking, Libtard, knee-pad #LeanForward Cankles-worshipping, self-loathing mandarin douchebag among douchebags.

These are lowlights from Wassssermermannnnssszzz's Twitter feed, timelined from Nov. 6 - Nov. 15, 2016.

And if you ever want a guffaw, use Twitter Advance Search for your favorite Leftard scumbag and limit your search to their Twitter handle and that time frame.

Wassermannnn is a wannabe Nate Silver without the velvet, apparently, because neither one of them can put one and one together.

Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
6 Nov 2016

"Pretty good odds that Trump, who started campaign referring to Mexicans as "rapists," will simply be defeated by Latino voters in the end."

---
Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
7 Nov 2016

Dave Wasserman Retweeted Benjy Sarlin 1st time Clinton has hit 50% in a 4-way live-interview national poll since pre-Comey letter.

---
Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
8 Nov 2016

"Tonight's most chaotic (not-going-to-happen) map: Clinton wins popular vote by 3% but loses by 50 EVs."

---
Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
8 Nov 2016

"I can't believe this is actually happening"

---
Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
9 Nov 2016

"Republicans will wield more power with fewer votes than I ever thought possible."

---
Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
9 Nov 2016

Dave Wasserman Retweeted Dave Wasserman "Whole Foods vs. Cracker Barrel culture gap over time..." [Freeper ed. note: Fuck you, Dave Wasssseerrrrmmmannn, Cracker Barrel grits and gravy rule! You precious bourgeois dipshit...]

---
Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
11 Nov 2016

Between House's geographic bias and a terrible Senate map, it's hard to see how Dems have any electoral recourse to check Trump in '18.

---
Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
15 Nov 2016

Trump lost the popular vote by 2-2.5 million, but carried 60 Senate seats, 230-245 House seats, and could reshape SCOTUS for a generation.

[robowombat]

I will never understand why we, for most of whom politics is a side interest, are so much better at it than these highly-paid consultants that claim it as their livelihood.

Because if you want to stay a member in good standing of the club you can only articulate the establishment country club academic common room approved views. Anything else is ‘strident partisanship’ or something.

[Luircin]

Take nothing for granted. Don’t dismiss articles or polls you don’t like as “biased” or “unrealistic” and assume it’s in the bag. We need to treat the mid terms as though it’s going to be a real dog fight, and get as many people on our side as we can out to the polls in November. Complacency is our biggest enemy.

***

Be confident but not complacent. Despair and nay-saying also depresses the vote.

[edh]

The Dems will pick up at least two, possibly 3 in PA due to their black robe tyrant end-around redistricting move they performed.

I still don’t think the Ds have a chance at the house. They might gain a few seats in the end, but a lot of stuff will have to go wrong for the Rs to make it a pseudo-wave election they need to win back the House.

I think there are going to be a lot of good surprises in teh Senate.

[Soul of the South]

“I just can’t see why anyone would be motivated to go out and vote D.”

I can’t see why anyone, other than big donors, would be motivated to go out and vote for my Republican Congresswoman based on her voting record and performance. She certainly is compromised on every issue I care about. Once again the GOP is putting me in the position of voting for “least bad”. It is hard to get excited about going to the polls and voting for someone who will betray my interests.

[adorno]

Trump had daunting numbers to overcome too. Hillary was a shoo-in. Trump had no chance. The math was completely against Trump. Hillary was already getting the White House carpet ready for Bill’s “spills”.

Hillary was lately seen wearing the table cloth that Trump threw away from the White House that he won.

[KavMan]

42 Republican open seats: 3 Likely D ... 5 Lean D ... 4 Tossup ... 7 Lean R ... 4 Likely R ... 19 Solid R

How is this hard for Republicans? Give the 3 Likely + 5 Lean + 4 Tossup + 7 Lean R + 4 Likely R all to Democrats & that equals 23

They have to bat 100% to get to 23 & how many Democrat seats will they also lose?

I'm feeling much better about keeping the House now after I've seen the stats here! The 19 Solid R, there is no chance Democrats can pick up a seat here right?

[Nifster]

It’s Axios. What do you expect

[drellberg]

As I see it, Dems and MSM are going for broke in 2018. All in. And yet they will lose a net 1-3 seats in the Senate and come up either just short of taking control of the House or barely in control. Assuming that they do not take the Senate, I do not think they are better off with a bare minimum of control in the House over coming up just short. Either way they are headed for a tough, tough, tough 2019-2020.

Things are going to get much uglier than they already are.

[DoughtyOne]

Total make believe.

And in the next chapter, we’ll talk about Snow White and how she tossed out the prince to live with a gay bear.

[nbenyo]

Besides the 42 open seats, the Democrats have opportunities to defeat GOP incumbents. About a dozen are in trouble and Democrats don’t need that many to take over.

Dems gained 30 seats in 2006 when GW Bush approval ratings were similar to Trump’s.
The GOP messaging is so disjointed, and Trump seems to be keeping the focus on Mueller’s investigation instead of his accomplishments.
I am not optimistic.

[Robert DeLong]

Even if they took all of these: 3 Likely D ... 5 Lean D ... 4 Tossup ... 7 Lean R , they still come up short by 4. Yes, I was noticing the same thing and scratching my head as to how this is a wave that accomplishes the goal. Though I certainly would become nervous if they did take that many seats away from Republican control.

[nbenyo]

Open seats are only part of the problem. There are GOP incumbents trailing their Democratic challengers in Virginia, Pennsylvania, Iowa and perhaps elsewhere.

[KavMan]

Huh? Beside the 42 GOP Seats, there are still more?

[familyop]

"3 Likely D ... 5 Lean D ... 4 Tossup ..."

That's 12. But even with the 7 leaning Republican, that would be 19. Very close but not looking too bad.

We still need to put some effort into getting the vote going, though.

[US Navy Vet]

See the Term “Concern Troll”...